I know, I know. This is no time to be pessimistic. During the very season that LaDanian Tomlinson is projecting better numbers than any running back in history, who am I to knock on the bathroom door and politely tell fantasy owners that they’d better hurry and get their rocks off humping his leg before it’s too late.
Now, I’m not saying anything about THIS season. No way! Ride that donkey all the way to the championships, big fella! What I’m talking about is the future. Something struck me as I was driving home the other evening. I thought, “Every year there seems to be one running back who gives an unfair advantage to the team who owns him…and it never fails that someone thinks they’re the luckiest person in the world to get that #1 pick the following year and wind up drafting Marshall Faulk in 2002, or Priest Holmes in 2004, or even Shaun Alexander in 2006.” I thought, is there a way to somehow PREDICT the unpredictable fall off of these stellar running backs in time to save face for next seasons draft?
Of course…well, not a foolproof method, but it’s certainly something to think about. Let’s continue, shall we?
Now to stick to a Fantasy Football perspective and not a Hall of Fame contest, I’m going to stick strictly to Fantasy Points in this comparison. The fantasy points were derived from the universal stats and point values: 10 yards (rushing & receiving) = 1 point, TD = 6 points. We’re just talking about the basics. Just the meat. If you’re the type who gives points for rushing attempts, broken tackles, and crotches sniffed…well, get a life.
Let’s start with the classics. The old greats from around the time when most (some) of us started playing this silly little game of ours:
Thurman Thomas lead the AFC in rushing in 1990, 1991, and 1993. Ironically enough, the year that he didn’t win the rushing crown was the year of his greatest fantasy performance. On top of that irony is that in 1993, he won the AFC rushing crown on the cusp of his downward slide.
Peak Fantasy Points: 283.3
Seasons To Get To Peak: 5
Next Season Total: 206.2
Maybe a couple of you had heard of this guy back in the day. I thought twice about including this guy on the list due to his line not fitting in with the rest, but then in a fit of journalistic integrity I decided it would be irresponsible not to include one of the best running backs of the 90s. Maybe it was because Barry took his ball and went home when the Lions refused to trade him and he was able to retire on top of the game, but while everyone else’s graph on this list resembles a mountain, Barry’s resembles a rocky plateau. Maybe that speaks to Barry’s ownership of the game, or maybe he just got out of the game before he pulled an Emmitt Smith.
Peak Fantasy Points: 319.8
Seasons To Get To Peak: 9
Next Season Total: 202.0
The NFL’s Career Rushing Yardage record holder, Emmitt Smith, was a monster to own in the early 90s. If he was on your team, no one could touch you. In 1995, he did the unthinkable when he hopped over the 350 Fantasy Points mark. However, the next year his fantasy points fell to 235.3 and he only topped that mark one more time (240.7 in 1998) over the course of 9 more seasons spent desperately trying to take Walter Payton’s record.
Peak Fantasy Points: 364.8
Seasons To Get To Peak: 6
Next Season Total: 235.3
Many of you are probably most familiar with Marshall Faulk, as he was many people’s golden child in their virgin seasons. As part of the the seemingly unstoppable Rams, it seemed that Faulk was an unstoppable force by himself. He created fantasy league champions all over the world from ’99 to ’01. But, when trigger happy owners spent their #1 pick on him in 2002, jaws hit the floor and pants filled with poo. We watched the cliff fall out from under Mr. Faulk like Wyl E. Coyote in Looney Tunes, but Mr. Faulk forgot his tiny umbrella and he suddenly became a tiny dust cloud at the bottom of the fantasy canyon.
Peak Fantasy Points: 374.9
Seasons To Get To Peak: 7
Next Season Total: 334.7
NEXT Season Total: 203.0
Ah, Priest Holmes! What a great story. He just wanted somewhere to play. Baltimore couldn’t seem to fit him in. He did well in 1998 cresting 1000 yards in his rookie season, but then sat back in a reserve role until Kansas City grabbed him up in 2001. He took that opportunity to say, “Eff-You Baltimore, I’m goin’ off!” He put up numbers the likes of which have never been seen, and he called himself Tenacious D…excuse me… No one before him had put up two consecutive 350+ point seasons. But, we all know what happened next, and people were STILL drafting him in 2005 in hopes of catching just a glimpse of what he had been.
Peak Fantasy Points: 371.0
Seasons To Get To Peak: 6
Next Season Total: 193.9
Now we get to LT. Now, I’m an LT owner and I know what kind of benefits this man has provided for my team this season. If I’m down 35 going into the afternoon games on Sunday and Tomlinson hasn’t played yet, I can still kick my feet up and rest easy that good ol’ LT will run circles around whatever defense they throw at him. This weekend I started LT and Joseph Addai who combined for 74.96 points. That’s enough to win games all by themselves, but I had seven other players on top of that. (Just wanted to brag again…)
Back to the topic at hand. Looking at the five players we’ve discussed prior to King Tomlinson, if you’ll notice, they all seem to hit their peak fantasy value at around the 6th year (the average is 6.6, but you get the idea.) This just happens to be LT’s 6th season in the NFL. While the totals for 2006 are just projections according to his statistics up to Week 12, he’s not only about to beat the all-time fantasy points record, he’s about to smash it by more than 50.
LaDanian reminds me of the story of Icarus. Long boring mythology short, Icarus built wax wings to prove to his father that he could touch the sun, the sun melted his wings, he plummeted back to Earth. Now, I’m not saying LT is pushing himself too hard or anything like that. But, you can look at the charts above and see historically that once a running back hits a peak, he not only never touches that number again, he continues to plummet right back to Earth.
Why do I think LT has hit his peak? You mean besides the fact that he’s on the verge of scoring 441.1 points, when the highest I’ve run across is Faulk’s 374.9? I guess the way he’s running this season, I can’t wholeheartedly say that it’s his peak…but, you’ve got to consider it.
So, there you have it. Take it for what it is. One guy’s opinion and attempt at predicting the unpredictable. But, I know that if I land the 1st pick in 2007, I will be wary of drafting LaDanian Tomlinson with my pick.
Just thought you should know…
Hmmm...I got nothin'...
Hmm is anyone else experiencing problems with the pictures on this blog loading? I’m trying to find out if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.
As a web site owner I believe the material here is reallyfantastic. I appreciate it for your hard work. You should keep it up forever! Best of luck…
Thank You for the information on this job. I’ve searched high and low and finally located this site. Thank You again for the article. I bookmarked your site: http://www.armchairassociation.com/2006/11/28/is-ladanians-bubble-about-to-burst/ and will check back often. Thanks for the great information!
An impressive share, I just given this onto a colleague who was performing just a little analysis on this. And he in fact bought me breakfast because I identified it for him.. smile. So let me reword that: Thnx for the treat! But yeah Thnkx for spending the time to discuss this, I feel strongly about it and love reading far more on this subject. If possible, as you become expertise, would you mind updating your weblog with much more details? It really is highly helpful for me. Big thumb up for this weblog post!
you’ve got an amazing blog right here! would you prefer to make some invite posts on my weblog?
The next time I learn a blog, I hope that it doesnt disappoint me as much as this one. I mean, I do know it was my option to read, but I really thought youd have something interesting to say. All I hear is a bunch of whining about one thing that you would repair when you werent too busy searching for attention.
Excellent post. I used to be checking continuously this blog and I am inspired! Very useful info particularly the remaining section
I care for such info much. I used to be seeking this certain information for a long time. Thank you and best of luck.
I’ve recently started a site, the info you provide on this web site has helped me tremendously. Thank you for all of your time & work.
Wonderful post however I was wanting to know if you could write a litte more on this topic? I’d be very grateful if you could elaborate a little bit more. Thank you!
Have you ever considered about including just a little bit more than just your articles? I mean, what you say is crucial and all. Even so feel of in case you added some wonderful visuals or video clips to give your posts much more, “pop”! Your content is excellent but with images and videos, this site could undeniably be among the really greatest in its niche. Fantastic blog!
Thanks for discussing your ideas. A very important factor is that students have a choice between federal government student loan and a private education loan where it’s easier to go for student loan debt consolidation loan than in the federal education loan.
It’s a shame you don’t have a donate button! I’d certainly donate to this superb blog! I suppose for now i’ll settle for bookmarking and adding your RSS feed to my Google account. I look forward to new updates and will talk about this site with my Facebook group. Talk soon!
It is in reality a great and useful piece of information. I’m glad that you just shared this helpful info with us. Please keep us up to date like this. Thanks for sharing.
Simply wanna remark on few general things, The website layout is perfect, the content is really great : D.
very nice post, i definitely love this web site, carry on it
Great web site. A lot of useful information here. I am sending it to a few friends ans also sharing in delicious. And obviously, thanks for your sweat!
Thanks, I have recently been looking for information about this topic for ages and yours is the best I’ve discovered so far. But, what concerning the bottom line? Are you sure in regards to the source?
I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting my own blog and was wondering what all is required to get set up? I’m assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny? I’m not very internet smart so I’m not 100% certain. Any tips or advice would be greatly appreciated. Cheers
Opiates trail your billing production and sips and in sebum your metoprolol stops pacing it’s corticoid disposal and the searches hired bilaterally because your [i]xenical buy from india[/i] has hermiated sturated by longtime rumours (oxy, methadone, hydrocodone, etc) and doesn’t think it needs to trisilicate any of it’s own, atender cloning to soothable depression.
Substantially, this publish is actually the sweetest on this notable theme. I harmonise along together with your conclusions and will thirstily appear ahead inside your incoming updates. Stating thanks will not likely just be ample, for that phenomenal clarity with your writing. I will appropriate grab your rss feed to stay informed of any updates. Admirable operate and considerably accomplishment together with your enterprise dealings! Please excuse my poor English as it is not my extremely first tongue.
Youre so cool! I dont suppose Ive learn anything like this before. So nice to seek out any person with some unique ideas on this subject. realy thank you for starting this up. this web site is one thing thatâs needed on the web, somebody with just a little originality. helpful job for bringing one thing new to the web!
An impressive share, I just now given this onto a colleague who was basically carrying out a small analysis during this. And that he the fact is bought me breakfast since I discovered it for him.. smile. So ok, i’ll reword that: Thnx for any treat! But yeah Thnkx for spending enough time go over this, Personally i believe strongly about it and enjoy reading on this subject. If it’s possible, as you become expertise, would you mind updating your web site with a whole lot much more details? It truly is extremely of wonderful aid for me. Huge thumb up just for this text!
Pretty good post. I just stumbled upon your blog and wanted to say that I have really enjoyed reading your blog posts.Any way Ill be subscribing to your feed and I hope you post again soon
Excellent weblog right here! Also your web site loads up fast! What host are you using? Can I get your affiliate hyperlink for your host? I wish my website loaded up as fast as yours lol
Hello, Simply just desire to assert ones own write-up is as a revelation. This readability on your content is superb and additionally possible presume you can be a consultant for this area. Excellent in your permission let me to seize a personâs Rss feed to keep up thus far with the help of heading article, for web development contact us
I don’t know whether it’s just me or if everybody else encountering issues with your site. It appears like some of the written text within your posts are running off the screen. Can somebody else please provide feedback and let me know if this is happening to them as well? This may be a problem with my browser because I’ve had this happen before. Many thanks
not everyone would need a nose job but my girlfriend really needs some rhinoplasty coz her nose is kind of crooked-
How do I know if a WordPress theme supports a subscribe option?
Hi I am so excited I found your blog page, I really found you by error, while I was researching on Askjeeve for something else, Anyways I am here now and would just like to say thanks for a marvelous post and a all round interesting blog (I also love the theme/design), I don’t have time to read it all at the moment but I have bookmarked it and also included your RSS feeds, so when I have time I will be back to read a great deal more, Please do keep up the great work.
Should you continues to undecided: pick up your finest headphones, forehead to go and each Greatest coupe and enquire that would connect these items proper Zune possibly an iPod and view what 1 tunes easier to you in fact, furthermore where vent producing you pleased significantly. You ought to are certain which happens to be perfect for you.
I feel like I’m often searching for interesting points to read about a variety of niches, but I manage to include your blog among my reads every day because you have compelling entries that I appear forward to. Here’s hoping there’s a good deal far more wonderful material coming!
We would like to thank you just as before for the gorgeous ideas you offered Janet when preparing her post-graduate research as effectively as, most importantly, pertaining to providing each of the concepts in a weblog post. Provided that we had been aware of your internet site a year ago, we’d have been saved the unnecessary measures we were having to take. Thank you extremely significantly.
I loved as much as you will receive performed right here. The cartoon is tasteful, your authored material stylish. nonetheless, you command get bought an impatience over that you wish be turning in the following. unwell unquestionably come further before again since exactly the similar nearly a lot often inside of case you protect this hike.
Wonderful site. Plenty of helpful info here. I¡¦m sending it to some buddies ans also sharing in delicious. And certainly, thanks for your effort!
Hello There. I found your blog using msn. This is an extremely well written article. I will make sure to bookmark it and come back to read more of your useful information. Thanks for the post. I will definitely return.
I work in web advertising at the product aspect, so it’s great to have the ability to achieve extra insight into how affiliates are selecting their merchandise, though I strongly feel that you are a rare person who takes into consideration the wants in their visitors. https://www.lifereader.com.au/psychics/clairvoyants
Thanks for this specific advice I was basically exploring all Google to find it!
I have been reading out several of your articles and i need to say pretty great stuff. I will surely bookmark your internet site
Great work! That is the kind of info that are supposed to be shared around the internet. Disgrace on Google for not positioning this publish upper! Come on over and visit my web site . Thank you =)
Simply want to say your article is as astonishing. The clarity to your post is simply excellent and that i can assume you’re a professional on this subject. Fine with your permission allow me to clutch your RSS feed to keep updated with drawing close post. Thank you a million and please keep up the rewarding work.
I’ve exactly the same issue sometimes, but I normally just force myself via it and revise later. Great luck!
Took me time to read all the comments, but I really enjoyed the article. It proved to be Very helpful to me and I am sure to all the commenters here It’s always nice when you can not only be informed, but also entertained I’m sure you had fun writing this article.
Thanks for the different tips contributed on this site. I have realized that many insurance firms offer prospects generous discount rates if they elect to insure multiple cars together. A significant volume of households own several motor vehicles these days, specifically those with elderly teenage kids still dwelling at home, as well as the savings upon policies can soon begin. So it pays off to look for a good deal.
I real thankful to find this web site on bing, just what I was searching for : D too saved to fav.
Pretty section of content. I just stumbled upon your site and in accession capital to assert that I get in fact enjoyed account your blog posts. Any way I’ll be subscribing to your feeds and even I achievement you access consistently rapidly.
Hello there! I could have sworn Ive been to this website before but after reading through some of the post I realized its new to me. Nonetheless, Im definitely happy I found it and Ill be book-marking and checking back frequently!
I’ll right away snatch your rss feed as I can not to find your email subscription link or e-newsletter service. Do you have any? Kindly permit me realize in order that I may subscribe. Thanks.
Justed wished to say yours articles is as astonished. The clearnessed in yours post is simply excellent and I can assume youre an expert on this subject. Well with your permission allow me to grab your feed to keep updated with forthcoming post. Thanks a million and please carry on the gratifying work.
This really answered my problem, thank you!
What’s up, There’s no doubt that your online site might be owning internet browser if it is compatible problems. At the time i check web business through Opera, it’s acceptable but if original at Web browser, this has plenty of overlapping. I merely would supply instant oversees! Extra now in which, splendid blog site!