Armchair Association: So You Want To Win Your Fantasy Football League...

Well, here we are once again, those two weeks of your life where you are now the most knowledgeable person on the face of the planet when it comes to Fantasy Football. If you’re reading this now and thinking, “Great! Where was this article LAST week?” then keep read this article for next year, because the next sentence will give you great insight into Fantasy Football. Never ever draft before the second half of August. The week before the season starts is ideal, but the third week in August will do fine as well. People who draft in July and early August are playing Russian Roulette. How do you think Clinton Portis owners feel right now? They wish THEY were drafting this weekend…

So, there’s your first little tidbit of knowledge. If you’ve already drafted this season, then you have room to improve. Now, for those of you who have been chewing through your pencils, waiting on the end of August for your draft like a good boy or girl, I’ve got some strategizin’ for you! For uniformity sake, I’m going to use Yahoo! standard format as the scoring configuration, you can figure it out from there.

The First Round – Okay, here it is, the first round, and what do you do? WHAT DO YOU DO?! If you have the first pick, well I hate the first pick, but you have to go with Larry Johnson. His projected numbers are sick. So, that’s just it. With the second and third pick, you’ve got either Shawn Alexander or LaDanian Tomlinson. Which ever one is gone when your pick comes up, take the other one.. You can’t lose. Now that the obvious is out of the way, what about the rest of you? You’ve got to take an RB, right? Not so fast, wacky. People get lost in the run on first round RBs sometimes and end up taking Willis McGahee in the first round, and that’s just retarded. If there’s anything we learned last season it’s that RBs are going to committees more and more, whereas QBs are the guys who play every down.

Let’s look at this as well, in a standard Yahoo Scoring league, the Top 10 RBs ranked average a total of 9.3 Fantasy Points Per Game. The Top 10 QBs average a total of 12.9 Fantasy Points Per Game. So, why is it so important to grab one of the holy trinity of RBs? Because the Top 3 average 12.47 Fantasy Points Per Game, and the other 7 average 7.94. Kind of a large drop off…

The Top 3 QBs average 14.3, while the other 7 average 12.4. Not much difference there. So, now you understand why you should take the holy trinity and then Peyton Manning and then move on to the best available player.

Does that include WRs? Please, not in the first round. Unless you’re in a Points Per Reception league, wide receivers aren’t all they’re cracked up to be. The Top 10 average 7.7 Fantasy Points Per Game and 11 through 30 average 5.5 Fantasy Points Per Game. This means that a wide receiver is a wide receiver is a wide receiver. So, don’t be the guy who says, “Ha ha! T.O. in the first round! SNAP!” Because everyone will laugh at you as you miss the playoffs with a shoddy RB corps or Byron Leftwich as your starting QB.

The Second Round – Now is where you have a decision to make. What did you take last round? If you took a QB, then these next two rounds MUST be focused on RBs. Even if that means taking Corey Dillon in the 3rd round. Because you have to find two solid RBs that will play at least the majority of each game, and there probably aren’t many of them left.

If you took a RB in the first round, then you get the choice of QB or RB. You should be able to get Tom Brady or Carson Palmer (assuming he’s all better) or the like early in the 2nd Round, and that would be a fantastic pick. But, the run on RBs is not finished. People LOVE to get their two starting RBs in the first two rounds, and while it’s not always the best strategy, it IS a pain in the ass for everyone else and it forces you to draft a RB before you were ready.

So, if you took an RB in the first round and Brady is available, take him. If the Top 3 QBs are gone by your pick, you’d be better off taking your second RB and grabbing a QB like Jake Plummer or Drew Brees in the 3rd Round.

Can you draft a WR yet? I wouldn’t. But the temptation to grab a Top 3 WR at this pick can be tough. Wait it out until the 3rd round, or sometimes you’d even be surprised who’s left at the 4th Round.

The Third Round – Now you should either have your two starting RBs or a great RB and QB. If you have two RBs, you should probably draft a QB now. However, if you have an RB and a QB, you MUST draft an RB now. If you don’t take your second RB now, you’ll be stuck with Samkon Gado as your #2 back, and that’s not Good Eats…

Can you draft a WR yet? Yeah, go ahead if you feel nasty. But, only if you took care of your two RBs. At this point, though, if you skip out on a QB, you might as well wait until the 5th Round for a QB, because they’ll all be about the same from this point on. But, I still don’t recommend it. The Top 25 QBs average 11.1 Fantasy Points Per Game, the Top 25 WRs only average 6.5 Fantasy Points Per Game. That’s a big difference. For instance, did you realize that Randy Moss averages about 8.8 Fantasy Points Per Game over the past 3 seasons. You know which QB has averaged 8.1 Fantasy Points Per Game? Joey Harrington. YEP! Joey Harrington. So, who are you going to pick? Especially when you can get Derrick Mason’s 5.9 Fantasy Points Per Game in like the 7th or 8th Round.

The Fourth Round – If you were me, you’d have a QB and two RBs now, an early stronghold on the championship, and a Pabst buzz. Now’s the time to draft a WR. Go ahead. It’s time…unless… Is Antonio Gates still out there? Now wouldn’t be that bad of a time to grab him. I know, I know… He only averages 6.0 Fantasy Points Per Game, but do you know what Shockey (the overall #2 TE ranked) averages? 4.9. And it only goes down from there (sans Tony Gonzalez, who is getting older and I would recommend in the 5th, but not in the 4th). Number 6 on the TE list averages 3.8. After Gates, Shockey, and Gonzo are gone, just wait until the 10th, 11th, or even 12th Round for a TE, because there’s no point. The Top 5 TEs average 5.0 Fantasy Points Per Game, and the next 10 average 2.8. 2.8!

It’s all about value. Gates is worth almost double what number 6 on the list is. The WRs that will be left on the list will just about all be worth the same. If you can get Gates now, grab him. If you can’t, go WR all day long.

The Fifth Round – Go WR again, my boy! However, if Gonzo or Shockey are calling your name too loudly, no one will really laugh at you. But, here’s the danger that you’ll see about this time: The Dreaded TE Run! Do not get sucked under by this wave. Gates will go, then someone will draft Gonzo, then someone will draft Shockey back to back to back. Oh no! All the TEs will be gone soon! Suddenly, some idiot’s found himself with Randy McMichael in the 5th Round. Laugh at that guy, and make sure his money is safely stowed away.

The bottom line, as I said before, is if Gates, Gonzo, and Shockey are gone, just forget about TE, they’re actually the most worthless position on your team. If they’re gone, go WR all day long….unless… Unless, of course, somehow someone like Cedric Benson or Jospeh Addai has slipped through the cracks. It is perfectly acceptable to go ahead and draft a bench RB before your starting WR corps is complete. But, only if it’s a can’t pass type of RB. Don’t forgo Laveranues Coles for Kevan Barlow. It’s all about who’s the best value you for your pick, and that’s where the VBD that we’ve got in our draft kit comes in handy. <- Plug!

The Rest – Well, the most important rounds are past you now. Now you can start focusing on your beer a little closer, order some wings, whatever. A few more tidbits on what to focus on are: here’s your last three rounds. K, TE, DEF. I don’t care what order you take them in, but do not take a DEF or a K before the last three rounds. There’s no point. Adam Vinatieri averages 7.8 Fantasy Points Per Game, Billy Cundiff averages 6.5. The Chicago Bears Defense averages 8.2 Fantasy Points Per Game, the San Francisco 49ers average 6.8. And if you were smart you would cycle your defensive units all season long and play the matchups instead of sticking with someone like Chicago all season long, regardless of who they play.

Which brings me to another point, do not draft more than one K, TE, or DEF. There are so many other point earners out there than Jermaine Wiggins’ 2.3 Fantasy Points Per Game. If you double up on any of those positions I will be disappointed in you, and you don’t want to hurt MY feelings do you? No way!

ALSO! There is no shame in taking someone just because you know your buddy wants them. Say you already have 4 RBs toward the end of the draft and you see Jospeh Addai sitting there, and your buddy with the inside out Edgerrin James Colts jersey is sitting there with wing sauce all over his goofy grin waiting on you to pick... grab Addai! This does two things, Addai will be a great RB, so it solidifies your RB corps and gives you potential trade bait, and it REALLY pisses off your buddy, which is why you’re buddies in the first place, right?

So, use your brain when you pick. Don’t be loyal to your favorite team. Don’t follow a strict regimen when picking, just get the best value for your pick and you will win your championship and the heart of Bob in accounting who’s always thought you were just a little TOO interesting…

Good luck to my friends, and stomach flu to my opponents!