We’ve heard it before time and time again, “The Saints have effectively killed both Bush and McAllister’s fantasy value.” “Which do you take Julius Jones or Marion Barber?” “Running back by committee is killing my team!” But, how much validity is there in that school of thought. On paper it sounds like a killer, but let’s take a deeper look and see what we find.

The Top 10 Total Rush Attempts in 2006 were all put forth by guys who were lone running backs in their team’s offensive schemes. The average number of rush attempts between those Top 10 are 335 or 21.1 Rushes Per Game. Let’s look at some of the biggest names affected in 2006 by the RB By Committee plague’s Rushes Per Game over the years:

• Duece McAllister: 2004 – 19.2, 2005 – 18.6, 2006 – 16.3
• Fred Taylor: 2004 – 18.6, 2005 – 17.6, 2006 – 15.4
• Julius Jones: 2004 – 24.6, 2005 – 19.8, 2006 – 16.7
• DeShaun Foster: 2004 – 14.8, 2005 – 13.7, 2006 – 16.2

With the exception of Julius Jones (Marion Barber has been splitting carries since 2005), these guys have only been part of committees since last season. Here’s how the breakdown plays out:

2004: 19.3
2005: 17.4
2006: 16.2

So, since the committee came into play, we’ve seen our 4 big names drop about 3 rushes per game. That’s not too bad, especially considering their average Yards Per Rush number all actually INCREASED from 2005 to 2006 from 4.0 to 4.4 (with the exception of DeShaun Foster who went from 4.3 YPR to 4.0 YPR). If all of those guys keep up the 4.4 Yards Per Rush pace for their average 16.2 Rushes Per Game, that would have them rushing for 1140 yards this season. Not a bad deal considering that Fred Taylor is the only one of the four who has rushed for over 1140 in the past 3 seasons.

The bottom line is, generally speaking, we’re not going to see elite running backs fall into committees. I know I read an article recently that had the Saints interested in Larry Johnson, but seriously, why in the world would any team waste the kind of money Larry Johnson would demand when they have an elite running back already on the team? They wouldn’t, that’s bad business, and if they did…well, George Steinbrenner should have an opening at General Manager by season’s end.

So, that being said, the guys who are falling prey to committees should have already had their expectations diminished. On top of that, it actually seems as though the committee is aiding their rush numbers by allowing them fresher legs when they come in.

Oh, you want to talk TD numbers?

• Duece McAllister: 2004 – 9, 2005 – 3, 2006 – 10
• Fred Taylor: 2004 – 2, 2005 – 3, 2006 – 5
• Julius Jones: 2004 – 7, 2005 – 5, 2006 – 4
• DeShaun Foster: 2004 – 2, 2005 – 2, 2006 – 3

Averages:

2004: 5
2005: 3.25
2006: 5.5

So, fear not, fellow Fantasy Football nutcases! The running back by committee scourge we’re seeing become ever present in our beloved game is not the end of the fantasy world as we know it, only a new tool to use against the people who don’t take the time to figure things out.

Just thought you should know.

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