April 30th, 2001… What if?
by Polish PowerhouseAugust 21, 2007
Amidst a night standing on my deck, sipping a Newcastle under the stars with a buddy who talks way too loudly, regardless of his surroundings, a very interesting subject was breached. One that I had never thought of before. One that shook me to my core. One that sent me to my calculator…
On April 30th, 2001, Ken Griffey Jr. tore his left hamstring sending him to the disabled list. Over the next 7 seasons, The Kid has missed over 39% of Reds baseball due to time spent on the DL for various injuries, mostly hamstring related. But, what if he hadn’t started down that vast cavernous hill of injuries? What if he just kept chugging along like The Kid a great deal of us grew up idolizing?
Ready for some stats?
From his rookie season in 1989 until his final relativly injury free season in 2000 (his first with Cincinnati), Ken Griffey Jr. had been at bat 6352 times. In those 6352 ABs, Junior had slugged 438 home runs. That works out to .06895 home runs per at bat in an average of 529 ABs per season.
In a perfect world, where smilin’ Ken Griffey Jr. was healthy every day and patroling center for 7 more seasons to present day just like he was in the previous 12, let’s see what his numbers would look like:
529 ABs per season over 7 more seasons with a HR every .06895 AB would come out to roughly 255 more home runs, giving Griffey a total (perfect world) tally of 693 career home runs in 2007. All of this at the ripe young age of 37.
Just to make things more interesting, why don’t we look at Barry Bonds’ numbers over his first 12 seasons (which incidentally end with 1997, the threshhold to the proverbial Steroid Era that you may or may not have heard about).
In Barry’s first 12 seasons from 1986-1997, Barry Bonds had been to bat 6069 times and had hit 374 home runs. That works out to a home run every .06162 at bats with an average of 506 ABs per season.
Now, in our perfect world where Junior is healthy, happy, and smiling, Bonds is also free and clear of any post 1997 games of shadowy doubt and gigantic bionic arms. While we’re creating perfect worlds, can we have old stadium names like Three Rivers and Candlestick, and Astrodome back please? You can give us the fans Monster.com tattoos and Safeco enemas, but please don’t make us feel like such whores all the time by making us say things like Purina Meow Mix Park…sorry, different tirade.
Back on track. In a perfect world where Barry held true to his numbers generated by his first 12 seasons over the next 10 seasons to bring him into 2007, he should see 5060 more at bats. At a rate of one home run every .06162 ABs, he would crank 312 more over those 10 seasons, giving him a career (perfect world) tally of 686.
Wait… Are you telling me in this perfect world where Griff is healthy and Bonds hadn’t cheated, they both would have legitimate coinciding shots at breaking Hank Aaron’s record? 
Griffey vs. Bonds, neck and neck for legendary status? Good vs. Evil? Spy vs. Spy in real life?! My God! Can you imagine how electric baseball would be right now? Just thinking about what could have been makes the hair on my forearms stand up.
Alas, The Kid broke his leg and has valiantly stayed mobile enough to hold on to a Hall of Fame worthy career, albeit one without the Home Run Crown. And Barry Bonds did whatever he did or didn’t do and now he has the record, and now the formerly most important record in sports is just another Wal-Mart bargain bin doo-dad waiting for A-Rod to take it from Bonds, and then Ryan Howard to take it from A-Rod…
Sigh…man… It could’ve been so awesome…
Related posts:
- The Silent Death Of The Steroid Era
- Sleepers & Busters: 2008 Shortstop Edition
- Ball Talk With Blastman
- Sleepers & Busters: 2008 First Basemen Edition
- Tip of the Derby
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