The MLB All-Star Game and all of the festivities that surround it are headed our way next week. My favorite event of the break is the Home Run Derby. It’s been my favorite since I was a kid. It’s the one chance in the season to see normally focused and restrained players break out of their shells and have some fun. There’s sweaty man hugs with David Ortiz, there’s houses to be won, there’s backwards caps, and grown men falling over in fits of laughter.
Not to mention the multitude of towering home runs.
But, what effect do those myriad home runs on the players. You see them sweating and panting after Round 2, and damn near dead if they make it into the finals.
Well, that got me thinking about the power drop offs we saw after the break from Garrett Anderson in 2003, Bobby Abreu in 2005, David Wright and Miguel Tejada in 2006, and Alex Rios and Justin Morneau in 2007. Could the Home Run Derby have a longer lasting effect on players than we previously thought?
I did some number crunching from the past five seasons comparing Home Run Derby participants and their pre-All Star and post-All Star numbers. What I found was somewhat surprising.
Among the players participating in the Home Run Derby, we see their home run numbers drop from .248 home runs per game to .217 home runs per game. That’s a drop off of 12.5%. But, if you look a little deeper, things get weird.
Of the players who went out in the first round, we see them fall from .268 HRPG to .223 HRPG (16.9% drop off). We also see the finalists fall from .210 HRPG to .180 HRPG (14.3% drop off). However, the players who went out in the second round only dropped from .245 HRPG to .242 HRPG (a 1.4% drop off).
Here’s some other interesting stuff from the past five years. You’ll notice that the players who made it to the final round of the Derby were only hitting .210 HRPG before falling to .180. That’s only around 17-18 HRs before the break on average. The guys who went out in the first round were the pre-All Star sluggers by comparison, hitting around 22-23 HRs before the break. The guys going out in the second round would fall around 20-21 HRs.
Why is that? Well, if you throw coincidence out the window, my theory is this: You’ve got power hitters going out in the first round, hitting only 2-3 home runs. They question their ability, maybe even try to overcompensate.
The “less powerful” guys who make it to the finals and drop off, well let me equate it to this: You are a social smoker. You smoke at parties or at the bar. On your birthday, you go out and get WASTED and smoke a whole pack in one night. You feel sick the next day, just awful. Well, the day after that, now you’re trying to smoke during coffee breaks, you’re smoking in the car on the way to work. But, it doesn’t feel right and you just end up choking.
The guys who go out in the second round, well, they made it far enough, their ego is neither inflated or deflated by the situation. They can walk out with their heads held high and not change anything about their style.
Now, let’s use this information and see if we can’t come up with some unofficial pronostications? So far, we have six confirmed participants: Ryan Braun (22 HR/.250 HRPG), Lance Berkman (22 HR/.244 HRPG), Josh Hamilton (20 HR/.225 HRPG), Grady Sizemore (22 HR/.253 HRPG), Dan Uggla (23 HR/.299 HRPG), and Chase Utley (25 HR/.275 HRPG).
Looking at these numbers, it would appear that Josh Hamilton and Lance Berkman would fall into the “Finalists” category. Ryan Braun and Grady Sizemore fall into the 2nd Rounders, and Uggla and Utley will be out by the first round. But, without knowing the other two participants, it’s hard to say. Especially since Berkman has been to the derby twice before and went to the finals in 2004 and went out in the 1st Round in 2006.
The interesting thing with Berkman (for those of you who are concerned Berkman owners) is that he hasn’t experienced a drop off in either year. As a matter of fact, looking back over the past 5 seasons, Berkman has yet to experience a power drop off in the second half. So, look for more of that.
However, judging historically, it would seem that Josh Hamilton is almost a lock to win the Home Run Derby from it’s current participants. But, if this happens, can we expect his HRPG to drop to .143 as history demands? That would only allow for 10 more home runs this season.
So, if what I’m saying turns out to be true and Josh Hamilton ends up running the Derby, you might have to seriously consider selling high on him in your fantasy league. Sell high, get the star, and let the other guy deal with his 10 remaining home runs.
One other anomaly from my number crunching: After the Home Run Derby, participants stolen bases per game go up 12%. I guess it’s kind of a situation where frustration brings out the “Run, Forrest, Run!” in them.
Just thought you should know…
Hmmm...I got nothin'...
Thank you for your really good details and respond to you. I require to verify with you here. Which isn’t 1 thing I often do! I get pleasure from reading a publish that can make people feel. Additionally, thanks for allowing me to remark!
I am glad to be a visitant of this everlasting blog! thankyou for this rare information!
I am not sure where you’re getting your information, but great topic. I needs to spend some time learning more or understanding more. Thanks for great information I was looking for this info for my mission.
Thanks for providing such a great article, it was excellent and very informative. It’s my first time that I visit here. I found a lot of informative stuff in your article. Keep it up. Thank you.
Wonderful items from you, man. I’ve understand your stuff prior to and you are simply too fantastic. I really like what you have received here, certainly like what you’re stating and the way in which wherein you assert it. You make it enjoyable and you still take care of to keep it smart. I can’t wait to read far more from you. That is really a wonderful site.
I am extremely impressed together with your writing talents as well as with the format in your weblog. Is this a paid subject matter or did you modify it your self? Anyway stay up the excellent high quality writing, it is rare to see a nice weblog like this one today..
Generally I don’t read article on blogs, but I would like to say that this write-up very pressured me to try and do so! Your writing style has been amazed me. Thanks, very nice post.
Would you be interested by exchanging links?
The creative ideas to be agood way to be aware that many people have the identical dreams similar to my own to grasp more on the subject of this condition. I believe there are lots of more fun times ahead for individuals who scan through your website..
This really is often a fantastic blog, could you be interested in working on an interview about just how you developed it? If so e-mail myself!
It’s the best time to make a few plans for the longer term and it’s time to be happy. I’ve read this put up and if I may just I desire to recommend you few fascinating things or advice. Maybe you can write next articles referring to this article. I desire to read even more things about it!
some genuinely interesting info , well written and broadly user friendly .
Hello, you used to write magnificent articles, but the last few posts have been kinda boring… I miss your tremendous writing. Past several posts are just a little bit out of track!
Those points as agood way to understand that some people have similar zeal much like my own to grasp much more on the subject of this problem. I’m sure there are thousands of more pleasurable occasions in the future for individuals who look into your blog..
I dugg some of you post as I thought they were handy extremely valuable
Someone essentially help to make severely posts I would state. That is the very first time I frequented your web page and thus far? I amazed with the analysis you made to make this particular post amazing. Great job!
Hi! I’m at work browsing your blog from my new apple iphone! Just wanted to say I love reading your blog and look forward to all your posts! Keep up the fantastic work!
Public before private and country before family.
One important issue is that when you are searching for a education loan you may find that you will need a cosigner. There are many scenarios where this is true because you may find that you do not possess a past credit history so the loan provider will require that you’ve got someone cosign the loan for you. Good post.
I think this is one of the most vital information for me. And i’m glad reading your article. But want to remark on some general things, The web site style is wonderful, the articles is really excellent : D. Good job, cheers
In this awesome scheme of things you actually get a B- with regard to effort. Exactly where you misplaced everybody was in your specifics. You know, it is said, the devil is in the details… And it could not be much more correct at this point. Having said that, allow me tell you exactly what did work. Your authoring is definitely rather persuasive which is most likely the reason why I am taking the effort to comment. I do not make it a regular habit of doing that. Second, although I can see the jumps in logic you come up with, I am not convinced of how you seem to connect the ideas which inturn produce the actual final result. For now I shall subscribe to your point however wish in the foreseeable future you actually connect your facts better.
This is the proper weblog for anyone who needs to seek out out about this topic. You realize a lot its almost hard to argue with you (not that I truly would need…HaHa). You definitely put a new spin on a topic thats been written about for years. Nice stuff, simply great!
Hey! Do you know if they make any plugins to protect against hackers? I’m kinda paranoid about losing everything I’ve worked hard on. Any recommendations?
Intriguing column , I’m going to spend much more time reading about this topic
hey there and thank you for your info – I have definitely picked up anything new from right here. I did however expertise several technical issues using this site, since I experienced to reload the site lots of times previous to I could get it to load correctly. I had been wondering if your hosting is OK? Not that I am complaining, but sluggish loading instances times will sometimes affect your placement in google and can damage your high quality score if ads and marketing with Adwords. Anyway I’m adding this RSS to my e-mail and could look out for much more of your respective exciting content. Make sure you update this again soon..
These inspiring ideas to be thefantastic way to realize that other people have the same zeal similar to my personal own to find out more when considering this matter. I’m sure there are a lot more enjoyable periods ahead for people who read through your website..
The subsequent time I learn a blog, I hope that it doesnt disappoint me as a lot as this one. I mean, I do know it was my option to read, however I actually thought youd have something interesting to say. All I hear is a bunch of whining about one thing that you possibly can repair in the event you werent too busy in search of attention.
I would like to rate this 8 out of 10
Hey, Thank you for this specific material I had been seeking all Yahoo to be able to locate it!
Random Google results can lead to fantastic blogs such as this. You’re performing a good job, and we share a lot of views.
This is just what I have been trying to find all the time. Don’t stop updating your blog.
Its like you read my mind! You appear to know a lot about this, like you wrote the book in it or something. I think that you could do with some pics to drive the message home a bit, but instead of that, this is wonderful blog. A great read. I’ll definitely be back.
Appreciation to my father who shared with me concerning this web site, this web site is in fact awesome.
Nice to be visiting your blog again, it has been months for me, always good writings here.
noutati interesante si utile postate pe blogul dumneavoastra. dar ca si o paranteza , ce parere aveti de inchiriere vile vacanta ?.
As soon as I discovered this internet site I went on reddit to share some with the really like with them.
Thanks for your interesting article. Other thing is that mesothelioma is generally caused by the breathing of fibers from mesothelioma, which is a very toxic material. It is commonly seen among personnel in the building industry with long exposure to asbestos. It’s also caused by residing in asbestos covered buildings for years of time, Genes plays a huge role, and some individuals are more vulnerable on the risk as compared to others..
I think this page is awesome for people this blog gives them a brief idea on where they need to start and start with. Thank you
I truly enjoyed this article. Make sure you keep up the good work. Thanks a lot.
What’s up, this weekend is nice for me, for the reason that this point in time i am reading this impressive informative article here at my home.
There is noticeably big cash to recognize about this. I suppose you made particular nice points in features also.
great site with lots of information on used cars you should really check it out
Nice read, I just passed this onto a colleague who was doing some research on that. And he just bought me lunch as I found it for him smile Thus let me rephrase that: Thank you for lunch!
I am new to building web sites and I was wanting to know if having your blog title related to your content really that crucial? I see your title, “Tip of the Derby | Armchair Association ” does seem to be spot on with what your blog is about but yet, I prefer to keep my title less content descriptive and based more around site branding. Would you think this is a good idea or bad idea? Any help would be greatly appreciated.
I think other web site proprietors should take this site as an model, very clean and wonderful user genial style and design, as well as the content. You are an expert in this topic!
I wrote something to introduce this project for my readers
I just now discovered your blog post and now I’m remember to start with followers.
Excellent read, I just passed this onto a colleague who was performing just a little research on that. And he actually bought me lunch because I identified it for him smile So let me rephrase that.
That is the suitable weblog for anybody who wants to seek out out about this topic. You realize a lot its virtually hard to argue with you (not that I really would want…HaHa). You positively put a new spin on a subject thats been written about for years. Great stuff, simply great!
I’ve been surfing online greater than three hours these days, but I never discovered any attention-grabbing post like yours. It’s lovely value enough for me. Personally, if all webmasters and bloggers created just correct content material as you probably did, the internet can be considerably far more valuable than ever before.