Once regarded as THE difference makers in fantasy football, the running back has seen it’s value drop off in the past years. They’re still the most important aspect of your fantasy football team, but they’re no longer the oxygen to the human body-they’re now more like…food. You can survive for a while without them, but without it, you’re gonna die eventually.

The problem is the committee virus that seems to be running rampant through the NFL these days. It’s getting harder and harder to find premiere backs these days. The good news is that the solo jobbers will get you a combined 1500-2000 total yards and 15-20 total TDs. However, going down the list, I only see around 10-12 guys who have sole possession of the starting RB job. So, blindly drafting RBs, regardless of their name, in the first two rounds is out this year. Out, like flannel shirts and slap bracelets.

So, who should you target and who should you avoid? Well, I’m glad you asked:

Sleepers

Reggie Bush – New Orleans Saints – (ADP: 39.91) Well, it’s make or break time for Bush. He’s entering his third season, and he can go one of two ways. The way of Brian Westbrook or the way of Lawrence Phillips. They both had very mediocre seasons in their first two seasons, but one went on to become the 2nd/3rd best RB in football and the other went on to drive a car into a group of teenagers after a pickup football game gone awry. He’s got a much improved offensive line, new passing threats to spread the defenses, and only a hobbled Duece McAllister and rookie Pierre Thomas waiting in the wings for him. This is the make or break season for Bush. The season that defines him as a stud or a bust. I’m willing to bet that he’ll stand up to the challenge.

Michael Turner – Atlanta Falcons – (ADP: 46.45) Yeah, I know, the Falcons are pegged to rival the Dolphins for the worst team in the NFL this season. That means they won’t run as much, since they’ll be playing from behind. But, did you know that prior to last season’s scheissfest, the Falcons had the #1 rushing team in the league for three consecutive seasons? Okay, a lot of that was Vick, but Dunn had 1000+ yard season in all of those years. So, Atlanta CAN run the ball, and need I remind you of how good Michael Turner CAN be? Remember Week 5 last season where he went for 147 yards and a TD on 10 carries? What about a career 5.5 YPC average compared to L.T.’s 4.5 YPC?

Larry Johnson – Kansas City Chiefs – (ADP: 14.16) Ooo! Risky! Take last preseason’s #2 ranked RB and call him a sleeper this season! Nice job, jackass. Well, last season was a mess for Larry Johnson. Contract disputes, holdouts, injuries, lack of offensive support… Like the time Najeh Davenport dumped in his ex-girlfriend’s closet, 2007 is something LJ would like to forget. So, yes, I am labeling Larry Johnson a sleeper. Especially when he’s now ranked as the #9 overall RB and is averaging a mid-2nd round draft selection. Have we really forgotten how dominant he was a couple of years ago? Trust me, if I see him falling to me even toward the middle to the end of the first round, I’m putting that Johnson in my pocket…wait a second, that didn’t come out right.

Busters

Steven Jackson – St. Louis Rams – (ADP: 4.08) Okay, you did pretty well in 2005. Then, in 2006 you got much better, but still it was just marginally great. Nothing mind blowing, but you were DEFINITELY on your way to superstardom. Before 2007, you were guaranteeing over 2000 yards rushing. Big talk! ESPN LOVES THAT! But, then you came out of the gates like this:
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldevbIq3a98&hl=en&fs=1]
And NOW you want to hold out for a new contract?! R Jew CRAZY?! One good season, two years ago + Potential + Big Mouth = Steven Jackson. I feel for those forced to draft him.

Darren McFadden – Oakland Raiders – (ADP: 47.88)I know the ADP is a little low for someone to be considered a bust, but considering he’s ranked as high as #15 overall amongst RBs on some charts and the hype he’s getting, I’m afraid people will be picking him way too high in hopes of catching the next Adrian Peterson. Let me just go through a list to show you something. These are the last rookie RBs to have truly breakout seasons over the past 20 seasons:

1999 – Edgerrin James – 316 Fantasy Points
2002 – Clinton Portis – 289 Fantasy Points
1995 – Curtis Martin – 265 Fantasy Points
1989 – Barry Sanders – 259 Fantasy Points
2000 – Mike Anderson – 256 Fantasy Points
1994 – Marshall Faulk – 252 Fantasy Points
2007 – Adrian Peterson – 242 Fantasy Points

That’s it. Seven players out of the past 20 years. And most of them had pretty good offensive lines opening holes for them. I’m not saying avoid him, I’m not even saying he won’t have a very good season. I’m just saying, don’t think that you’re getting Adrian Peterson when you do draft him. Because you’re not. You’re getting a good RB with no other help whatsoever.

Adrian Peterson – Minnesota Vikings – (ADP: 2.08) Ha! I had you! Glory holing Adrian Peterson, just to turn around and label him a potential bust. This won’t be a popular opinion, I’m sure. But, if you look at Adrian Peterson’s numbers, Westbrook scored more fantasy points that he did last season. Peterson is feast or famine. Seven out of the fourteen games he played in last season, he forgot to score a touchdown. But, when he DID score, he did so in multiples. Real quick, let’s look at the weeks around his record setting week, rushing yardage-wise: 63 yards, 70 yards, 296 yards, 45 yards… Some people say he’s the #1 RB available. I respectfully disagree.

Bold Predictions

1. Both Brian Westbrook and Joseph Addai will be ahead of LaDanian Tomlinson fantasy points wise by the end of the season. This will be the final season of LT being the default #1 pick.

2. Brian Westbrook will miss at least one game… Ha ha ha ha! Okay. Just kidding. That’s like saying “You’ll have to pay taxes this year.”

3. People will say, “Where the hell did Lawrence Maroney come from?” when Bellicheck pulls a fast one on everyone expecting them to come out passing 75% of the time again.

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