I know, I know. This is no time to be pessimistic. During the very season that LaDanian Tomlinson is projecting better numbers than any running back in history, who am I to knock on the bathroom door and politely tell fantasy owners that they'd better hurry and get their rocks off humping his leg before it's too late.

Now, I'm not saying anything about THIS season. No way! Ride that donkey all the way to the championships, big fella! What I'm talking about is the future. Something struck me as I was driving home the other evening. I thought, "Every year there seems to be one running back who gives an unfair advantage to the team who owns him...and it never fails that someone thinks they're the luckiest person in the world to get that #1 pick the following year and wind up drafting Marshall Faulk in 2002, or Priest Holmes in 2004, or even Shaun Alexander in 2006." I thought, is there a way to somehow PREDICT the unpredictable fall off of these stellar running backs in time to save face for next seasons draft?

Of course...well, not a foolproof method, but it's certainly something to think about. Let's continue, shall we?

Now to stick to a Fantasy Football perspective and not a Hall of Fame contest, I'm going to stick strictly to Fantasy Points in this comparison. The fantasy points were derived from the universal stats and point values: 10 yards (rushing & receiving) = 1 point, TD = 6 points. We're just talking about the basics. Just the meat. If you're the type who gives points for rushing attempts, broken tackles, and crotches sniffed...well, get a life.

Let's start with the classics. The old greats from around the time when most (some) of us started playing this silly little game of ours:

Thurman Thomas lead the AFC in rushing in 1990, 1991, and 1993. Ironically enough, the year that he didn't win the rushing crown was the year of his greatest fantasy performance. On top of that irony is that in 1993, he won the AFC rushing crown on the cusp of his downward slide.

Peak Fantasy Points: 283.3
Seasons To Get To Peak: 5
Next Season Total: 206.2

Maybe a couple of you had heard of this guy back in the day. I thought twice about including this guy on the list due to his line not fitting in with the rest, but then in a fit of journalistic integrity I decided it would be irresponsible not to include one of the best running backs of the 90s. Maybe it was because Barry took his ball and went home when the Lions refused to trade him and he was able to retire on top of the game, but while everyone else's graph on this list resembles a mountain, Barry's resembles a rocky plateau. Maybe that speaks to Barry's ownership of the game, or maybe he just got out of the game before he pulled an Emmitt Smith.

Peak Fantasy Points: 319.8
Seasons To Get To Peak: 9
Next Season Total: 202.0

The NFL's Career Rushing Yardage record holder, Emmitt Smith, was a monster to own in the early 90s. If he was on your team, no one could touch you. In 1995, he did the unthinkable when he hopped over the 350 Fantasy Points mark. However, the next year his fantasy points fell to 235.3 and he only topped that mark one more time (240.7 in 1998) over the course of 9 more seasons spent desperately trying to take Walter Payton's record.

Peak Fantasy Points: 364.8
Seasons To Get To Peak: 6
Next Season Total: 235.3


Many of you are probably most familiar with Marshall Faulk, as he was many people's golden child in their virgin seasons. As part of the the seemingly unstoppable Rams, it seemed that Faulk was an unstoppable force by himself. He created fantasy league champions all over the world from '99 to '01. But, when trigger happy owners spent their #1 pick on him in 2002, jaws hit the floor and pants filled with poo. We watched the cliff fall out from under Mr. Faulk like Wyl E. Coyote in Looney Tunes, but Mr. Faulk forgot his tiny umbrella and he suddenly became a tiny dust cloud at the bottom of the fantasy canyon.

Peak Fantasy Points: 374.9
Seasons To Get To Peak: 7
Next Season Total: 334.7
NEXT Season Total: 203.0
Ah, Priest Holmes! What a great story. He just wanted somewhere to play. Baltimore couldn't seem to fit him in. He did well in 1998 cresting 1000 yards in his rookie season, but then sat back in a reserve role until Kansas City grabbed him up in 2001. He took that opportunity to say, "Eff-You Baltimore, I'm goin' off!" He put up numbers the likes of which have never been seen, and he called himself Tenacious D...excuse me... No one before him had put up two consecutive 350+ point seasons. But, we all know what happened next, and people were STILL drafting him in 2005 in hopes of catching just a glimpse of what he had been.

Peak Fantasy Points: 371.0
Seasons To Get To Peak: 6
Next Season Total: 193.9


Now we get to LT. Now, I'm an LT owner and I know what kind of benefits this man has provided for my team this season. If I'm down 35 going into the afternoon games on Sunday and Tomlinson hasn't played yet, I can still kick my feet up and rest easy that good ol' LT will run circles around whatever defense they throw at him. This weekend I started LT and Joseph Addai who combined for 74.96 points. That's enough to win games all by themselves, but I had seven other players on top of that. (Just wanted to brag again...)

Back to the topic at hand. Looking at the five players we've discussed prior to King Tomlinson, if you'll notice, they all seem to hit their peak fantasy value at around the 6th year (the average is 6.6, but you get the idea.) This just happens to be LT's 6th season in the NFL. While the totals for 2006 are just projections according to his statistics up to Week 12, he's not only about to beat the all-time fantasy points record, he's about to smash it by more than 50.

LaDanian reminds me of the story of Icarus. Long boring mythology short, Icarus built wax wings to prove to his father that he could touch the sun, the sun melted his wings, he plummeted back to Earth. Now, I'm not saying LT is pushing himself too hard or anything like that. But, you can look at the charts above and see historically that once a running back hits a peak, he not only never touches that number again, he continues to plummet right back to Earth.

Why do I think LT has hit his peak? You mean besides the fact that he's on the verge of scoring 441.1 points, when the highest I've run across is Faulk's 374.9? I guess the way he's running this season, I can't wholeheartedly say that it's his peak...but, you've got to consider it.

So, there you have it. Take it for what it is. One guy's opinion and attempt at predicting the unpredictable. But, I know that if I land the 1st pick in 2007, I will be wary of drafting LaDanian Tomlinson with my pick.

Just thought you should know...

Labels: fantasy football, football, LaDanian Tomlinson, nfl

Read more...

So, here we are. Week 10 is coming to a close. Playoff positions are beginning to solidify. Fantasy managers are beginning to either lose hope or plan for the playoffs. But, most importantly, trade deadlines are looming over the league.

Besides the draft, the trade deadline is the next most important time when the great managers are separated from the good. Do you sit idly by and let the team that got you there continue to carry you, or do you take a gamble and fill a hole or upgrade a question mark? For the sake of the article, I'm gonna say, it's trade time.

There's a few rules of thumb we should go over in the art of trade making:

1. Never make a deal with a guy you're in direct competition with. It's not good business. You'd shoot yourself if it was your guy who knocked you out of playoff contention. You may get a good deal, but it's always a gamble. This is more of a painful thing to watch than a team killer.

2. Saying "I need an RB!" on the message board will not get the job done. When you post that message, you're basically saying, "I'm desperate! Send me the most ridiculous deal you could imagine." If you want a leg up, you have to take the initiative. You have to take the time to offer trades. No one is looking to give you LaDanian Tomlinson. They're looking to see if you're desperate enough to give up Donovan McNabb for Travis Henry. So, don't waste your time.

3. Getting one stud for two good players is a good deal. Offering up Phillip Rivers and Terry Glenn for Frank Gore when you're in a pinch for an RB looks appealing for the other team and works well for you, assuming Rivers is your #2 and you can fill the hole left by Glenn.

4. Multiplayer deals are the way to go. A lot of times you can disguise a lopsided deal by making a 3 for 3 trade. Asking for Larry Johnson and two scrubs in return for three solid players, suddenly makes it seem more bearable to lose LJ for the other guy. Just make sure you try and trade position for position, it will make it seem more fair, because you're automatically filling the holes you create.

5. Use your Instant Messenger. You offer a trade. Two days later, your deal gets rejected and reworked. A day later, you respond. Before you know it, the trade deadline has passed. Work out a time when you can meet up and talk things out on Yahoo Messenger or AIM. Don't leave the table until a deal is hammered out. More times than not, vigilance will work out in your benefit. Kind of the way a filibuster works, eventually the other guy will say, "I don't care anymore, I'll take the deal just to shut you up!"

6. Know your victim. It's easy to look at Willie Parker sitting on top of the steaming pile of dook that is the last place team and offer up a deal. I mean, you're doing him a favor offering him Jeremy Shockey for Parker, right? No, that deal would get vetoed by any league with any amount of dignity. Plus, the poor sap in last place knows that nothing outside of a miracle will save him, so nine times out of ten, he's not interested in your vulture impression. The top teams won't want to shake up their team either. No, the team you need to set your sights on is the teams JUST barely out of contention for the playoffs. They're desperate for a shot in the arm, they're ready to deal and they want it now. Stick your heart in the freezer and bleed them dry.

7. Be sure to check out the matchups. Sometimes when you get a deal offer, it's easy to just pull the trigger. But, don't forget to do your homework. Make sure you check out the matchups during the final four weeks of the season. You don't want to make the deal of the season just to find out your new stud receiver plays Baltimore, Jacksonville, and Chicago in the three weeks of the playoffs. It's easy to just jump, it'll keep you alive if you put on the parachute first.

8. Don't trade just to trade. One of the worst things you can do is to just make a trade because it's fun. It never fails that someone will offer you a deal, and it's not a great deal, but you make a reworked offer. Suddenly, you just made a deal you didn't need to make just because you got bit by the trade bug. So, put some ointment on it, stick your hands in your pockets, whatever... Just keep that itchy trigger finger away from your mouse.

The late season trade is an art. Take it from the guy who, every season, gets accused of rigging trades or some other underhanded maneuvering. You CAN get the player you want and need. You just have to study the art, hone your craft, and turn off your heart light.

Labels: fantasy football, football trades, nfl, trade, trade deadline

Read more...

Somewhere between the time Marques Colston was taken at the 252nd pick of the 2006 draft and the day that Yahoo! opened their fantasy football registration, someone at Yahoo! committed the biggest blunder in the history of internet based fantasy sports. When the positions needed to be attached to the code, it seems someone said, "252nd pick...Marques Colston...Postion...uhhhh... Oh, who gives a rats ass." And suddenly, without playing a single down at tight end, Marques Colston was listed at that very position. One that is notoriously barren of fantasy points.

So what, right? Let's think about the ramifications: I would almost guarantee that 90% of the teams in the upper echelon of fantasy football leagues are starting Colston at tight end. Why is this? Well, what kind of team wouldn't have taken a very good tight end? A team who was racking up on offensive studs in the meantime. As you took Tony Gonzalez or Antonio Gates in the fourth round, this guy took Tom Brady or Roy Williams or Javon Walker. I was able to drop Marcus Pollard (my 14th pick) for Colston after the first week. I had Tony Gonzalez in both of my other leagues, so I didn't make the switch, and I'm cool with that, because who would drop Gonzo after the first game for a Saints rookie? Right...

A team could feasibly have Roy Williams, Javon Walker, and Muhsin Muhammad with Colston bringing up tight end. None of those players are first round picks, either. So just imagine playing a juggernaut like that with Larry Johnson or LT at the helm. My Colston-enhanced team consists of Peyton Manning, Plaxico Burress, Javon Walker, Randy Moss, and Willie Parker...plus Colston.

My point is, before I veered off into bragging, this blunder, while endlessly beneficial for those of us lucky enough to have grabbed Marques Colston before he exploded, has placed quite a wrench in the system by allowing strong teams to become close to unbeatable. So, I'd like to thank Yahoo! on my behalf and bump knuckles with those who were able to grab Marques Colston early to take the place of the Marcus Pollards and the Jermaine Wiggins of the world, people whose only concern after their draft was, "Ugh...what am I gonna do with Joe Klopfenstein?" Good job, my Colston-enhanced brothers, go out there and destroy and remember the time that Yahoo! gave us steroids.

Labels: fantasy football, fantasy nfl, football, marques colston, yahoo

Read more...

Sunday night prime-time is always a tough slot to fill. What ever you put out there will be going against the likes of The Simpsons, Family Guy, The Sopranos, Deadwood (well, not anymore...). For as long as my muddled brain can remember, Sunday has been a solid TV night. So, to combat the monsters, NBC threw together just about the greatest line up in televised football for Sunday Night Football.

Let's start with Bob Costas. Costas is like Joe Buck without the large population that find him pretentious. Bob Costas is a sports broadcasting genius. He's smarter than all of them, yet patient enough to sit back at times and let the other broadcasters make him look even better. If Costas ever ran for public office (from Director of Sanitation to President) he has my vote. He doesn't even need to campaign.

Moving along... Chris Collinsworth, while not deserving of my presidential write in vote, is another monster of broadcasting. He's snide and knowledgable without being overbearing. He's not afraid to call a player out and he sticks to it regardless of the outcome. Then, there's Jerome Bettis: Man Law writer. School bus. All-Around Nice Guy. What's not to like about Bettis? Sterling Sharpe... Well, at least he's not Michael Irvin...

Then, regardless of your feelings on John Madden, you have to respect him. There is no middle ground with Madden, you love him or you hate him. But, either way you respect him. He's John Madden, he's eaten turkey legs bigger than you, punk. He survived years with Pat Summerall without clubbing him to death as he sat in his Little Rascal, shaking and mumbling "Beg yeh pardon?". Now that Summerall has passed the torch, Al Michaels has taken our hearts just as Steve Stone took our hearts backing up Harry Caray in his declining years.

This is an All-Star cast the likes of which we've never seen before... EXCEPT...

Andrea Kramer.

Listen up NBC. Grandma Kramer belongs on the sideline about as much as John Madden belongs on a pole in a dimly lit club. Who is your target demographic? MEN 18-36! Who are these men attracted to? Barbara Walters? NO! Well, she has journalistic integrity, though. That's what the TRUE football fan wants in a sideline reporter right?

Wrong again, NBC. We've got Bob Costas and Chris Collinsworth for that. What we want in our sideline reporter is sex. Well versed linguistics? NO! Intuitive strategic skills? NO! SEX, DAMMIT! We spend three hours watching sweaty men running around on the field. Bringing Andrea Kramer into the camera lens is like if Johnny Cash had wheeled Mama Cass out to the Folsom Prison crowd instead of June Carter. No, NBC! BAD, NBC!

Look at FOX. They've got Pam Oliver. Mmmmm...Pam Oliver. So smart, so intense, so hot. She knows her football and she's hot. End of story. Journalistic integrity be damned. Pam Oliver gets the scoop on the sideline because she's hot. She walks up to a player and starts asking questions, that player will answer them just to continue talking to her. Bonnie Bernstein is the same way. When Andrea Kramer walks up to a player, they escort her over to the information booth to help her find her family.

This is football, NBC. This is a male haven. The only interruptions we appreciate in football is cheerleaders, Pam Oliver, and funny beer commercials. Would you stick Andrea Kramer in a Hooters uniform because she's a brewmaster and knows which beers better accentuate the various spices in their wings? NO! You stick Andrea Kramer on The View or the Today Show and you make damn sure her replacement has big boobs and a perky attitude.

So, there you go NBC. Use your brain next time. We live in a world fattened by Hardees and dumbed down by Larry the Cable Guy. Any words coming out of the sideline reporter's mouth are just noises interferring with the game. Make those noises come from a perky 18-30 year old and you've got the perfect lineup. Until then, it's just a Prime-Time Sausage Fest that's almost the best thing on in that time slot.

Labels: andrea kramer, fantasy football, fantasy nfl, nbc, sunday, sunday night football

Read more...

Back in the '70s and the '80s, the moustache was as prevalent as track marks up the arms of today's players. Everywhere you looked there was a bushy broom dangling from the lips of greats from Eddie Murray to Robin Yount, not to mention the esteemed Rollie Fingers and his Brylcremed masterpiece. Well, at some point the stache went south. Replaced by other methods of displaying masculinity, it's popularity plummetted. As we'll see shortly, the flavor-saver is experiencing a resurrection of sorts. Slowly, we're seeing it's kitschy return to the Major Leagues. Now, let's take a moment to marvel at the Top 5 Brooms in the MLB today:

#5. Randy Johnson Ever since he joined the New York Yankees, The Big Unit has been less than his normal spectacular self. At times, he's down right stunk. Some people (especially some people who live around the Massachusetts area) would say that it's his tenure in New York that's done it. The pinstripes have a way of taking an All-Star and knocking him down a few notches once he puts them on. But, I have a different theory: Run your mouse over the picture to the left. Yeah. Are you familiar with the biblical story of Samson? The brute who loses his strength with a haircut. I blame George Steinbrenner! Give Randy his mullet and broom back and you've got a Cy Young candidate. Take it away, and all you have left is #5 on the Top 5 Moustaches In The Majors Today. Sorry, Randy...you had so much potential for this list...

#4. Todd Jones There's something about the Fu Manchu style of moustache that screams "badass". You can slap it on your goofiest pastey white guy and suddenly go from jolly to scary. These things would make Drew Carey look imposing. That's just what's happened here. Minus the Fu Manchu, Todd Jones would just be a 38 year old cornbread Georgian. Add the Fu Manchu, we've got a 38 year old cornbread Georgian who just might kick your ass. That's why I praise the Fu Manchu. Never lose the Fu Manchu, Todd, lest ye go the way of Randy Johnson sans mullet.

#3. Gary Sheffield Now Sheffield is a physical specimen that is better appreciated up close. You have to break out the magnifying glass to engorge yourself in the intricacies attended to each detail. With an accoutrement hardly worthy of the title "stache", Sheffield's needle thin pin stripe is honed to a precision that would make Clarke Gable ask to touch it just to feel the energy. This pinnacle of stache artistry has been used by boy bands and Puerto Rican chulos. But, it's presence in baseball has been sorely missed. Thank you, Gary Sheffield, for giving us the moustache equivalent of the Kawasaki Ninja.

#2. Sal Fasano Sal rocks the Fu Manchu just like Todd Jones! What gives with the scoring discrepancy? Well, it's just that Sal got his moustache by killing Rod Beck, splicing Beck's moustache genes with Wilford Brimley's moustache DNA, crossing Bill Ray Cyrus' mullet DNA with Antonio Banderas' and drinking the potion, thus creating the crown prince of facial hair, Sal Fasano. Interesting side note: One time, Sal Fasano took the day off. Joe Torre was short handed with Posada under the weather. So, Fasano's broom suited up and went 3-for-4 with a double and picked Carl Crawford off of first.

#1. Jose Valentin Ladies and Gentlemen! I present to you the Sultan of Stache, the Broom Master...Jose Valentin. With a stache so razor sharp that he's killed two former wives just by kissing them goodnight, Valentin is a king among men. With the moustache equivalent of a ninja's katana sword, Valentin has combined the substance of a Randy Johnson, the masculinity of a Fasano, and the stunning precision of a Sheffield. It's bulky enough for you to take notice, yet cut in a way that makes a diamond look like a pile of cottage cheese. This, boys and girls, is the pinnacle of human achievement. It demands respect without speaking a word. Case in point, last night in Game 7 of the NLCS against the Cardinals, Valentin took a foul ball off of the moustache...didn't even flinch. He just reached up to flick any pieces of baseball that might have gotten stuck in his stache and stepped back in the box. That, my friends, is a MOUSTACHE!

I hope that the MLBPA will soon realize the power of the stache and work harder to try and bring back the 40% moustache representation that we saw 20 to 30 years ago. In an effort to get the MLB to recognize the importance of the moustache in baseball, I hereby decree the following days until the end of the World Series, Stache Week. Grow your moustache and wear it with pride! I know I will!

Labels: baseball, gary sheffield, jose valentin, major league baseball, mlb, moustache, randy johnson, sal fasano, todd jones

Read more...

Ah, the morning after. It was a wonderful night. You ate, you drank, you had a fantastic time. Right now is the moment before you open your eyes when you’re still in the blissful state of grogginess, and suddenly a thought dawns on you. Now’s the time that you roll over to see what you brought home with you last night: the knock-out or the pig? You open your eyes…

There she lays sprawled out on your computer screen like a bag full of rotten potatoes. Oh my God…you brought home the pig!

There’s names like Jon Kitna, Ahman Green, and Koren Robinson…in your starting line up. Oh God! What did you do last night? First off, go take a shower. Wash the stink of a bad draft off of you as quickly as you can and burn your sheets. Let’s not speak of this again.

Now, we’ve got to worry about fixing this situation. An important thing to remember is, just like going to the bar or the nightclub, SOMEone’s got to bring home the pig. And for whatever reason, this time it was you. It happens to everyone at least once. But, what separates the guys who give in to a life of pigs, and the guys who brush themselves off and laugh off the whole mess, lies in what you do next.

More than likely, it’s not as bad as it seems. If you got to participate in the first round, you at least got one good player to work with. More than likely, you got a few. So, we have to focus on the good of the situation first. Let’s look at this position by position:

QB Situation – You somehow wound up with Jon Kitna and Billy Volek as your only QBs. Well, things aren’t as grim as you think. Fortunately, these are both guys with firm grips on the starting job at least for the first few weeks. The other thing that this tells me is that you bulked up other positions while everyone else was grabbing up the QBs, and this is good. So, here’s what you do: Look at the matchups. Jon Kitna and the Lions are facing Seattle in Week 1. Hmmm…Seattle’s got a pretty solid D. Ah, but Volek and the Titans are playing the Jets in Week 1! Score! The Jets have one of the lowest rated defenses in the league. So, you start Volek against the Jets in Week 1 and keep a CLOSE eye on the waiver wire. Did Charlie Frye throw for 400 yards in Week 1? Of course it would be against the Saints, but still 400 yards could mean something big regardless of who it’s against. So, what I’m saying is play the matchups with what you’ve got and keep your eyes on the free agent wire and be ready to pull the trigger the second a free agent shows signs of promise. You may have to hold out for two or three weeks before one of the free agents begins to really stand out, but one will. They always do. The important thing is, YOU have to be the one who grabs him up.

RB Situation – So, you beefed up on WRs and you wound up with Ahman Green, Chester Taylor, LenDale White, and Marion Barber. First off, if you have a solid top tier QB in conjunction with this group of miscreants, then you’re a lot better off than you think. If you’re sitting on Ahman Green and Chester Taylor with Jon Kitna as your starting QB, you’ve got trouble. The difference between this RB situation and the QB situation is that of these four RBs, only two of them are clear cut starters: Ahman Green and Chester Taylor. Now, on the bright side, let’s not forget that before last season Ahman Green was an unquestioned first rounder. He’s an injury risk now, sure. But, he’s always been. So, if he’s what you got…you could have worse. On top of that, while Chester Taylor won’t get you LaDanian Tomlinson style stats, he’s certainly no slouch. The biggest problem, however, with not having a couple of very good RBs is that there’s a 99% chance that there are NO good or even decent RBs left on the free agent wire as opposed to QBs where you can find 2-4 starting QBs at any time. So, here’s what you do. Stick with Ahman and Chester. You’re not going to get into first place with a tandem like that, but with careful planning you can work your way out of the jam. This is more of a situation for trades, than free agency pick ups. So, wait it out a few weeks, obviously, if any RBs on the free agent wire show promise, grab them. But, more than likely you’ll see some of your WRs show big numbers. I’d hope that if you shafted yourself out of starting RBs this badly, you at least have some wicked WRs. So, what you want to do is, after someone like Anquan Boldin has a great game in Week 1 against San Fran, work for the week trying to get someone to trade one of their RBs for Anquan straight up. But, Anquan is your only great WR? Don’t worry about it (well maybe you should…what exactly were you doing while the draft was going on?), great RBs score almost twice what great WRs score, good RBs score about the same. For instance, Kevin Jones and Anquan Boldin score about the same amount of points each game. So, if you can trade Anquan Boldin for Rudi Johnson, you’d better take it and go grab one of the WRs on the free agent wire.

WR Situation – So, you’re staring in the face of a WR corps that consists of Derrick Mason, Eddie Kennison, and Ernest Wilford. Let me start by saying, if your receiving corps looks like this, you’d better have a damned good QB and RB line up, or else you should leave your home address with our receptionist so we can have someone come out give you a wedgie. Secondly, for a receiving corps, that’s not all that bad. This is probably the best situation you could be in, actually, because it will give you the longest period of time to rectify the situation. Fortunately, this is also the EASIEST situation to rectify. Every year there’s four or five WRs who start out on the free agent wire who become viable WR solutions within a few weeks. Case in point: Terry Glenn, Nate Burleson, Lee Evans, Donte Stallworth, Drew Bennett, and blah blah blah… So, if your WR corps is your biggest nightmare, chin up, Chrissy, there’s starving people in Ethiopia.

TE, K, DEF Situation – If you ran into this situation of your own volition, then you make bunnies cry. If you ran into this situation because you let Yahoo do your draft for you, reevaluate your life. Is your honeymoon REALLY more important than your fantasy football draft? Of course not. According to statistics, it’s not like you won’t have a chance for another one, right? As a matter of fact, attending your fantasy draft COULD even expedite that situation. Regardless, you now find yourself staring at two TEs, two Ks, and two DEFs. The solution is so simple, you don’t even need my help. Drop the worst one at each position. Do not carry two of any of these guys. It’s wasted space, if for no other reason than you could be holding onto someone who another manager is starting, were it not for your insatiable need for both Dallas Clark AND Jermaine Wiggins to be on your team. So, get to dropping this extra weight before you sink your ship at the boat launch.

So, you see, no team is beyond repair in this crazy addiction we call Fantasy Football. The hardest part, sometimes, is knowing that your team sucks. It’s kind of like how ugly people don’t always know they’re ugly. Just like your children, every one thinks their team is the best. For the health of your wager, do yourself a favor and take a step back and look at it from the perspective of your buddies. That team you brought home with you last night is a pig. Rectify the situation, or you might as well go ahead and name your team “The Moped” if you know what I mean.

Labels: fantasy draft, fantasy football, fantasy nfl, football, football draft, free agency

Read more...

There’s a fine line between respect and rejection in the world of Fantasy Football. Sometimes those can’t miss players not only miss, they bring you down with them. Ahman Green, anyone? Sometimes a final round throw away pick makes you the talk of the league, Willie Parker style. Here’s a look into how to avoid the rest of the league laughing as you sheepishly drop your #1 overall pick onto the waiver wire in Week 5.

Quarterbacks:

Sleeper – Jake Plummer – DEN – Anyone remember Jon Kitna’s 2003 and 2004 seasons? What about Drew Brees circa 2004 and 2005? What’s the similarity here? Right, they were both mediocre to lousy QBs who, when faced with their team spending a Top 5 Draft Pick on their replacement, decided to step it up a few hundred notches. Guess what happened to Jake Plummer this season? The Broncos drafted lauded rookie Jay Cutler to learn the system. Plummer is due a new contract at the end of the season with SOMEone, and he might like to prove to them that he’s worth the money. All signs point to a big season from the most underrated QB in the NFL.

Buster – Marc Bulger – STL – You know I should say Aaron Brooks, but you would’ve had to, at one point, actually been good to be considered a bust. Why Marc Bulger? Well, with injuries piling up like chicken buckets outside of John Madden’s bus, Marc Bulger has at least a 4:1 shot of not missing a game or two, but I’d play the numbers and bet that he misses more than that. Plus, with an aging receiver corps and a decimated offensive line, what exactly makes you think he’s worth a high draft pick? Don’t do it.

Running Backs:

Sleeper – Lee Suggs – NYJ – This spot could have been held by Chester Taylor or Joseph Addai, but I think most of you know that Chester Taylor will do very well in Minnesota, and Jospeh Addai still isn’t the starter yet. So, I pick Lee Suggs because he probably wasn’t even on anyone’s radar until a couple of days ago when he was brought to New York. Lee Suggs should take over for ailing Curtis Martin when he is forced into retirement by injuries before the preseason is over. Let’s not forget that he only had 8 rushes last season, but let’s also not forget that he averaged 4.5 yards per carry the previous two seasons when he got 56 and 199 carries respectively. He’s young, he has the talent, and now he’s all but got a starting job with a decent team. I’m not saying Suggs is 1st Round material, but if he was there in the 5th Round, you’d better believe I’d take him. ***EDIT*** Ha ha! The RotoDestroyer Jinx! Only moments after posting this article, Lee Suggs failed his physical and voided the trade to New York. So, let's not call him a sleeper anymore, but there's still Chester Taylor and Joseph Addai to look at.

Buster – Edgerrin James – ARI – Everything is wrong for Edge this season. Now, I love Edgerrin. He’s a great player. But, let’s look at what happened. He went from the best offense in the NFL to one of the flakiest. He went from one of the best offensive lines to one of the three worst. His present offense is led by two of the best wide receivers in the league. Gonna be real hard to spread the ball around between Anquan, Fitzy, and Edge. His quarterback will either be an old man teetering on the brink of wasting away or an unproven Paris Hilton boy toy rookie. Plus, PLUS, he’s got his contract now, so there's no reason to go overboard. My prediction for Edge this season is he starts off slow, picks up steam toward midseason, then is injured when one of his doofus linemen let a linebacker through and he doesn’t play again this season as the Cardinals once again miss the playoffs.

Wide Receivers:

Sleeper – Andre Johnson – TEX – There’s several names who could go here: Michael Clayton, Javon Walker, even Chris Chambers. Michael Clayton is not as bad as he was last season. Javon Walker will be back with a vengeance under Shannahan’s rule. Chris Chambers is a sleeper in that, I think he will pull a Steve Smith and suddenly become a Top 3 receiver overnight. But, I still pick Andre Johnson because he was so good for two seasons, and when he crapped the bed last season I see now that he’s been written off down the line, ranked as low as #33. That’s crazy. The man’s a stud and with Eric Moulds coming to town for mentorship and to take the defensive pressure off of him, that adds up to sleeper material of the best kind.

Buster – Joey Galloway – TB – People still have this guy ranked as high as #11. Uh, guys, he’s 35 years old. That’s just a year younger than Brett Favre. Yeah, he was great last season, surprisingly so. But, honestly…#11? That’s just crazy. Let him go. Chris Simms is still finding his niche, and he’s surrounded by other younger talented receivers. When it comes your turn and you see Galloway staring you in the face, turn and run. There is no way he can live up to the hype.

Tight Ends:

Sleeper – Zach Hilton – NO – Now a sleeper at the tight end position is still just a tight end, so don’t get TOO excited and do something crazy. That being said, do you guys remember late last season after the Saints bye week when Zach Hilton started racking up pretty impressive games? Don’t worry, a LOT of people didn’t notice. But, I did. Do you guys remember who Brees’ last tight end was? Some guy named Gates. They had pretty good chemistry, that Gates fellas made a decent name for himself being thrown to by Brees. Hilton’s got the potential, he’s got the quarterback…but he IS still a Saint, and that means all guarantees are null and void. But, if I followed my strategy and still don’t have a TE in the 12th or 13th Round, I’d be more than happy to draft Zach Hilton. I expect big things out of him this season, although big things for a tight end is like owning the World’s Largest Weiner Dog.

Buster – Tony Gonzalez – KC – It pains me to put his name up here, but pickings are slim when you don’t expect much from the position as a whole. Why did I pick on Gonzo? Well, a few reasons. He’s been on a downward slide for the past three seasons, dropping about half a yard per reception each season. Trent Green is no spring chicken either, so there’s that. I’m not saying avoid Gonzo, I’m not saying he’s not worth having on your team. I’m just saying, you may think twice about drafting him as early as you did last season or the year before, because I just don’t see him producing like the Gonzo of old.

Kickers:

Sleeper – Mike Vanderjagt – DAL – Isn’t THAT a shame when the most accurate kicker in the history of the NFL is now a sleeper instead of just a sure thing. For one reason or another, he dropped a long way on a lot of people’s lists, falling as far as #7. That’s just crazy. Crazy? That’s just criminal. Look at the facts, he’s still the most accurate kicker in the league, he’s playing under a partial dome for half of his games, which means cross winds will be minimal to none. He’s playing for one of those offenses you love to see for a kicker, where they’re solid, but not quite good enough to score on every possession. They’ll drive down the field, but they’ll be putting away a lot of field goals when Julius Jones can’t break through the hole, or a lumbering Bledsoe hits the deck just shy of the yellow line.

Buster – Neil Rackers – ARI – Huh? Where did this guy pop into the #1 slot from? He’s ranked #1 all over town. Let’s look at his FG Accuracy over the past three seasons: 75.0%, 75.9%, 95.2%. OH, I get it now. The old Fluke Year Syndrome. People see on unstoppable season where he nails 40 of 42 and suddenly the proven studs take a back seat to Johnny Come Lately. Hell, Billy Cundiff out kicked Rackers in 2003 and 2004. In fact he was only better than 7 kickers in 2003, and only 5 in 2004. Now, I’m not saying that we should really even be worrying about kickers this much, because they’re really all the same. But, I am saying that Neil Rackers doesn’t belong in the #1 spot, and honestly he probably doesn’t even belong in the Top 5. So, don’t waste your pick on a fluke, just laugh into your beer when some moron drafts him in the 8th Round.

Labels: busts, fantasy draft, fantasy football, nfl, sleepers

Read more...

Well, here we are once again, those two weeks of your life where you are now the most knowledgeable person on the face of the planet when it comes to Fantasy Football. If you’re reading this now and thinking, “Great! Where was this article LAST week?” then keep read this article for next year, because the next sentence will give you great insight into Fantasy Football. Never ever draft before the second half of August. The week before the season starts is ideal, but the third week in August will do fine as well. People who draft in July and early August are playing Russian Roulette. How do you think Clinton Portis owners feel right now? They wish THEY were drafting this weekend…

So, there’s your first little tidbit of knowledge. If you’ve already drafted this season, then you have room to improve. Now, for those of you who have been chewing through your pencils, waiting on the end of August for your draft like a good boy or girl, I’ve got some strategizin’ for you! For uniformity sake, I’m going to use Yahoo! standard format as the scoring configuration, you can figure it out from there.

The First Round – Okay, here it is, the first round, and what do you do? WHAT DO YOU DO?! If you have the first pick, well I hate the first pick, but you have to go with Larry Johnson. His projected numbers are sick. So, that’s just it. With the second and third pick, you’ve got either Shawn Alexander or LaDanian Tomlinson. Which ever one is gone when your pick comes up, take the other one.. You can’t lose. Now that the obvious is out of the way, what about the rest of you? You’ve got to take an RB, right? Not so fast, wacky. People get lost in the run on first round RBs sometimes and end up taking Willis McGahee in the first round, and that’s just retarded. If there’s anything we learned last season it’s that RBs are going to committees more and more, whereas QBs are the guys who play every down.

Let’s look at this as well, in a standard Yahoo Scoring league, the Top 10 RBs ranked average a total of 9.3 Fantasy Points Per Game. The Top 10 QBs average a total of 12.9 Fantasy Points Per Game. So, why is it so important to grab one of the holy trinity of RBs? Because the Top 3 average 12.47 Fantasy Points Per Game, and the other 7 average 7.94. Kind of a large drop off…

The Top 3 QBs average 14.3, while the other 7 average 12.4. Not much difference there. So, now you understand why you should take the holy trinity and then Peyton Manning and then move on to the best available player.

Does that include WRs? Please, not in the first round. Unless you’re in a Points Per Reception league, wide receivers aren’t all they’re cracked up to be. The Top 10 average 7.7 Fantasy Points Per Game and 11 through 30 average 5.5 Fantasy Points Per Game. This means that a wide receiver is a wide receiver is a wide receiver. So, don’t be the guy who says, “Ha ha! T.O. in the first round! SNAP!” Because everyone will laugh at you as you miss the playoffs with a shoddy RB corps or Byron Leftwich as your starting QB.

The Second Round – Now is where you have a decision to make. What did you take last round? If you took a QB, then these next two rounds MUST be focused on RBs. Even if that means taking Corey Dillon in the 3rd round. Because you have to find two solid RBs that will play at least the majority of each game, and there probably aren’t many of them left.

If you took a RB in the first round, then you get the choice of QB or RB. You should be able to get Tom Brady or Carson Palmer (assuming he’s all better) or the like early in the 2nd Round, and that would be a fantastic pick. But, the run on RBs is not finished. People LOVE to get their two starting RBs in the first two rounds, and while it’s not always the best strategy, it IS a pain in the ass for everyone else and it forces you to draft a RB before you were ready.

So, if you took an RB in the first round and Brady is available, take him. If the Top 3 QBs are gone by your pick, you’d be better off taking your second RB and grabbing a QB like Jake Plummer or Drew Brees in the 3rd Round.

Can you draft a WR yet? I wouldn’t. But the temptation to grab a Top 3 WR at this pick can be tough. Wait it out until the 3rd round, or sometimes you’d even be surprised who’s left at the 4th Round.

The Third Round – Now you should either have your two starting RBs or a great RB and QB. If you have two RBs, you should probably draft a QB now. However, if you have an RB and a QB, you MUST draft an RB now. If you don’t take your second RB now, you’ll be stuck with Samkon Gado as your #2 back, and that’s not Good Eats…

Can you draft a WR yet? Yeah, go ahead if you feel nasty. But, only if you took care of your two RBs. At this point, though, if you skip out on a QB, you might as well wait until the 5th Round for a QB, because they’ll all be about the same from this point on. But, I still don’t recommend it. The Top 25 QBs average 11.1 Fantasy Points Per Game, the Top 25 WRs only average 6.5 Fantasy Points Per Game. That’s a big difference. For instance, did you realize that Randy Moss averages about 8.8 Fantasy Points Per Game over the past 3 seasons. You know which QB has averaged 8.1 Fantasy Points Per Game? Joey Harrington. YEP! Joey Harrington. So, who are you going to pick? Especially when you can get Derrick Mason’s 5.9 Fantasy Points Per Game in like the 7th or 8th Round.

The Fourth Round – If you were me, you’d have a QB and two RBs now, an early stronghold on the championship, and a Pabst buzz. Now’s the time to draft a WR. Go ahead. It’s time…unless… Is Antonio Gates still out there? Now wouldn’t be that bad of a time to grab him. I know, I know… He only averages 6.0 Fantasy Points Per Game, but do you know what Shockey (the overall #2 TE ranked) averages? 4.9. And it only goes down from there (sans Tony Gonzalez, who is getting older and I would recommend in the 5th, but not in the 4th). Number 6 on the TE list averages 3.8. After Gates, Shockey, and Gonzo are gone, just wait until the 10th, 11th, or even 12th Round for a TE, because there’s no point. The Top 5 TEs average 5.0 Fantasy Points Per Game, and the next 10 average 2.8. 2.8!

It’s all about value. Gates is worth almost double what number 6 on the list is. The WRs that will be left on the list will just about all be worth the same. If you can get Gates now, grab him. If you can’t, go WR all day long.

The Fifth Round – Go WR again, my boy! However, if Gonzo or Shockey are calling your name too loudly, no one will really laugh at you. But, here’s the danger that you’ll see about this time: The Dreaded TE Run! Do not get sucked under by this wave. Gates will go, then someone will draft Gonzo, then someone will draft Shockey back to back to back. Oh no! All the TEs will be gone soon! Suddenly, some idiot’s found himself with Randy McMichael in the 5th Round. Laugh at that guy, and make sure his money is safely stowed away.

The bottom line, as I said before, is if Gates, Gonzo, and Shockey are gone, just forget about TE, they’re actually the most worthless position on your team. If they’re gone, go WR all day long….unless… Unless, of course, somehow someone like Cedric Benson or Jospeh Addai has slipped through the cracks. It is perfectly acceptable to go ahead and draft a bench RB before your starting WR corps is complete. But, only if it’s a can’t pass type of RB. Don’t forgo Laveranues Coles for Kevan Barlow. It’s all about who’s the best value you for your pick, and that’s where the VBD that we’ve got in our draft kit comes in handy. <- Plug!

The Rest – Well, the most important rounds are past you now. Now you can start focusing on your beer a little closer, order some wings, whatever. A few more tidbits on what to focus on are: here’s your last three rounds. K, TE, DEF. I don’t care what order you take them in, but do not take a DEF or a K before the last three rounds. There’s no point. Adam Vinatieri averages 7.8 Fantasy Points Per Game, Billy Cundiff averages 6.5. The Chicago Bears Defense averages 8.2 Fantasy Points Per Game, the San Francisco 49ers average 6.8. And if you were smart you would cycle your defensive units all season long and play the matchups instead of sticking with someone like Chicago all season long, regardless of who they play.

Which brings me to another point, do not draft more than one K, TE, or DEF. There are so many other point earners out there than Jermaine Wiggins’ 2.3 Fantasy Points Per Game. If you double up on any of those positions I will be disappointed in you, and you don’t want to hurt MY feelings do you? No way!

ALSO! There is no shame in taking someone just because you know your buddy wants them. Say you already have 4 RBs toward the end of the draft and you see Jospeh Addai sitting there, and your buddy with the inside out Edgerrin James Colts jersey is sitting there with wing sauce all over his goofy grin waiting on you to pick... grab Addai! This does two things, Addai will be a great RB, so it solidifies your RB corps and gives you potential trade bait, and it REALLY pisses off your buddy, which is why you’re buddies in the first place, right?

So, use your brain when you pick. Don’t be loyal to your favorite team. Don’t follow a strict regimen when picking, just get the best value for your pick and you will win your championship and the heart of Bob in accounting who’s always thought you were just a little TOO interesting…

Good luck to my friends, and stomach flu to my opponents!

Labels: fantasy draft, fantasy football, football, football draft

Read more...