It's the time again! The playoffs are in full swing, and those of you lucky enough to still be in action are certainly scrambling to your rosters, anxiously studying your lineup for holes. I was doing the same thing this morning when I saw Peyton Manning is playing on Monday Night Football this week. I breathed a sigh of relief.

Peyton on the "Big Stage"? Forget about it! Round 2 is in the BAG!

Or is it? I decided to waste the rest of my day trying to prove or disprove the very belief that has swayed MANY decisions in my fantasy football tenure. The results of my study can be found HERE in Excel format. But, for those of you who don't want to download, I'll give you the jist.

The "Big Stage" belief is as big an old wives tale as frogs causing warts.

I only did the study on this season's statistics, partly because I'm lazy and partly because...well, okay...just laziness. But, the results were still pretty shocking to a firm believer in primetime football.

I used the scoring set up from my personal fantasy league, which is very similar to Yahoo's default setup. Then, I picked a QB, a RB, and a WR from each team with a game being played when no one else is playing (Thursday, Sunday night, Monday night). I then made many mathematical formulas in Excel to figure the points difference between when the player is in one of many games going on, and when he's playing in the only game on TV. I also tried not to just grab stars. I just picked the first name I thought of at each position for each team, and tried to be true to starters.

Here's some interesting stats I uncovered:

• The worst primetime player with more than one performance this season? Mr. Monday Night himself, Brett Favre. Averaging 11.13 points less than he averages when NOT playing during primetime.
• The best primetime player with more than one performance this season? Shaun Alexander with 9.45 points more than he averages otherwise. But, considering that's in 2 of the 7 games he's played in this season, maybe Tony Romo's 7.97 extra points over 4 games is more interesting.
• QBs fare worse than any other position during primetime, actually showing up on average 1.64 points less in primetime than they do any other time. RBs fall .33 points in primetime. In fact, WRs are the only position who, fantasy points wise, do better during primetime games, scoring a measly .06 more than any other game.
• And yes kids... Peyton Manning scores 7.12 points less per game in primetime this season than a regular game.

It appears that as a whole, when averaged together, the very players who we plug in automatically because they are playing in primetime actually do worse on Monday night, Sunday night, or Thursday night by .67 points. I know, that's not much. But wasn't the whole reason we felt so secure is because they were sure to go off? That's why I always felt good about it. But, now we find that it's just not true.

Just thought you should know... Read more...

Like a time capsule buried in grandma's flower garden, I have been anxiously awaiting opening this barrel full of monkeys all season long. I'm going to do what no other Fantasy Football site is willing to do. I'm going to review my recommendations from the beginning of the season, and see how they stand up against their present status. I, for one, can appreciate the times that I am proven wrong, because I can use those times to better my judgment for the next time around. Of course, I hope to see more positive recommendations than negative, but I know that I recommended Jake Plummer as the sleeper QB of the season (Whoops!) so, I'm just gonna hold on and hope for the best.

Okay, bend over, RotoDestroyer. Here comes your audit:

So You Want To Win Your Fantasy Football League? (08/14/2006)

1. Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, LaDanian Tomlinson (Prognosis: #1, #2, #3) - Okay, you may or may not believe this, but on early versions of my draft kit, I had the Holy Trinity ranked: #1 LaDanian Tomlinson, #2 Larry Johnson, #3 Shaun Alexander. I folded under the pressure of seeing every other site ranking them Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, LaDanian Tomlinson and eventually changed my ranking. But, it's basically a wash, so, I'm just going to call this faux pas a push and move on.

Result: 0 points

2. Willis McGahee (Prognosis: "...and end up taking Willis McGahee in the first round, and that’s just retarded.") Still a retarded decision. With only 4 TDs this season, and a 2 game injury hiatus, Mr. McGahee is the #25 RB in the NFL today by fantasy standards.

Result: 1 point

3. Peyton Manning (Prognosis: #4 pick overall) Sorting all players by total fantasy points brings Mr. Marketing Boy Toy to #3 overall. Missed by one, damn. But, I was still right.

Result: 1 point

4. Terrell Owens (Prognosis: ""Ha ha! T.O. in the first round! SNAP!” Because everyone will laugh at you as you miss the playoffs") T.O. is ranked as the #4 WR in the NFL right now, but according to my statement, he's not 1st round material. That statement is still true. He's done "well", but not 1st round well, since he is the 32nd ranked fantasy points scorer in the NFL.

Result: 1 point

5. Corey Dillon (Prognosis: "Corey Dillon in the 3rd round.") He's the #22 fantasy points scoring running back, #52 overall. Even in a 16 team league, Corey Dillon doesn't fit the bill as a 3rd Rounder. Swing and a miss, RD!

Result: -1 point

6. Tom Brady/Carson Palmer (Prognosis: "Tom Brady or Carson Palmer...or the like early in the 2nd Round, and that would be a fantastic pick.") Ranked #10 and #8 respectively in overall fantasy points, Carson Palmer averaged a 2.7 round pick and Tom Brady averaged a 3.1 rounder. 2 POINT CONVERSION!

Result: 2 points

7. Jake Plummer/Drew Brees (Prognosis: "Jake Plummer or Drew Brees in the 3rd Round.") Man, I threw a lot of trust Plummer's way this season. He's gonna really screw my results here. But, fortunately in this ill-conceived bit of wisdom, Drew Brees pulled me out of the flames to result in a push.

Result: 0 points

8. Samkon Gado (Prognosis: "you’ll be stuck with Samkon Gado as your #2 back, and that’s not Good Eats…") Duh...

Result: 0 points

9. Derrick Mason (Prognosis: "Derrick Mason’s 5.9 Fantasy Points Per Game in like the 7th or 8th Round.") If you got him in the 7th or 8th round, good for you. He's been decent. Any earlier and...sorry. Ranked 155th overall, and in a 12 team league, the 8th round would end with pick #96. Sorry, RotoDestroyer, technically, you failed.

Result: -1 point

10. Antonio Gates (Prognosis: 4th Rounder) Ranked as the best TE who isn't a technical glitch in Yahoo's system (AHEM...Colston), and ranked #41 overall. Gates would have been just fine as a 4th Round selection.

Result: 1 point

11. Jeremy Shockey/Tony Gonzalez (Prognosis: 5th Rounders) Ranked at #69 and #47 respectively, once again both of these TEs would have fit right in with the other 5th rounders.

Result: 1 point

12. Randy McMichael (Prognosis: "some idiot’s found himself with Randy McMichael in the 5th Round.") Ranked #182 overall, McMichael doesn't even belong on the draft board, much less in the 5th round.

Result: 1 point

13. Laveranues Coles (Prognosis: "Don’t forgo Laveranues Coles for Kevan Barlow.") Matching Jet versus Jet, Coles has outscored Barlow and adds another point for the mighty RotoDestroyer!

Result: 1 point

Sleepers & Busters (08/15/2006)

14. Jake Plummer (Prognosis: Sleeper) Well apparently not. Like I said, I had a lot of faith in him. I still like him, expecially more than the Bumpkin Beatle, Jay Cutler. But, I could never consider Plummer a success this season, even if I was a liar...

Result: -1 point

15. Marc Bulger (Prognosis: Buster) As the #7 QB in fantasy football, once again I've fallen on my face.

Result: -1 point

16. Chester Taylor/Joseph Addai (Prognosis: Sleepers) As #13 and #8 on the list of RBs in fantasy football, I consider this a victorious occasion, nailing not one but TWO sleepers. However, I initially had Lee Suggs 10 minutes before he failed his physical and voided his contract. So, for this crass mistake, I deduct one point from a double-doozie.

Result: 1 point

17. Edgerrin James (Prognosis: Buster) Edge? Edge? Where'd you go? Oh...you fell to #29 on the list of RBs? #99 overall? You averaged being the 8.8 pick overall in fantasy drafts? So, I was right? Hmmm...CHALK IT UP!

Result: 1 point

18. Andre Johnson, Michael Clayton, Javon Walker, Chris Chambers (Prognosis: Sleepers) "There’s several names who could go here: Michael Clayton, Javon Walker, even Chris Chambers. Michael Clayton is not as bad as he was last season. Javon Walker will be back with a vengeance under Shannahan’s rule. Chris Chambers is a sleeper in that, I think he will pull a Steve Smith and suddenly become a Top 3 receiver overnight. But, I still pick Andre Johnson because he was so good for two seasons, and when he crapped the bed last season I see now that he’s been written off down the line, ranked as low as #33. That’s crazy."

Andre Johnson = 1 point
Michael Clayton = -1 point
Javon Walker = 1 point
Chris Chambers = -1 point

I should've just kept my mouth shut and stuck with Andre Johnson, and I'd have a point right now. But, in this case I think the bad knocked the good out of it. Chambers a Top 3 receiver? WHAT?!

Result: 0 points

19. Joey Galloway (Prognosis: Buster) He was placed as high as #11 on the pre-draft list of WRs. I said, "No way!" Now he's ranked #22 on the list of receivers. Not really a great position, but not really a bust, either.

Result: -1 point

20. Zach Hilton (Prognosis: Sleeper) HA HA HA HA HA! Who? HA HA HA HA HA!

Result: -1 point

21. Tony Gonzalez (Prognosis: Buster) Look who's on the rebound! It's Gonzo! Look who's on a slide now, it's RotoDestroyer!

Result: -1 point

22. Mike Vanderjagt (Prognosis: Sleeper) Ugh, I don't even want to talk about it. That's 4 in a row.

Result: -1 point

23. Neil Rackers (Prognosis: Buster) Finally! I was getting ill there for a moment. Rackers was ranked as the #1 kicker on almost every list out there (except RotoDestroyer). As of today, he's the #17 kicker in the league. Phew...

Result: 1 point

How Did I Wind Up With Vinny Testeverde? (08/25/2006)

24. Jon Kitna/Billy Volek (Prognosis: "You somehow wound up with Jon Kitna and Billy Volek as your only QBs. Well, things aren’t as grim as you think.") Okay Kitna hasn't been bad this season, so, no you wouldn't be screwed. But, Billy Volek? Shot who in the what now? Since the jist of this piece of information was that just because you're starting Jon Kitna doesn't mean you're screwed, I'm gonna give it a point. But, Billy Volek?

Result: 1 point

25. Ahman Green, Chester Taylor, LenDale White, Marion Barber (Prognosis: "you wound up with Ahman Green, Chester Taylor, LenDale White, and Marion Barber...you’re a lot better off than you think.") With the exception of LenDale White, this is possibly my best effort yet on this list. Going into the season, all 4 of these guys were question marks at best. At this point we see Ahman Green at #15, Chester Taylor at #13, and Marion Barber at #6. LenDale White is at Denny's somewhere I think. Chalk it up!

Result: 1 point

26. Rudi Johnson (Prognosis: "if you can trade Anquan Boldin for Rudi Johnson, you’d better take it") For some reason, before the season started this seemed like some super informative breaking news. At this point, I look at that statement and say, "Duh!" I was right, but I don't feel right giving myself a point for it.

Result: 0 points

27. Derrick Mason, Eddie Kennison, Ernest Wilford (Prognosis: "for a receiving corps, that’s not all that bad.") Ummm.... Yeah, that actually IS pretty bad in retrospect. Together, the three of them are averaging 572 receiving yards and 3 TDs. That's only 75.2 points, which ranks around 41 or 42 in the list of WRs. So, I hate ending on a bad note, however...

Result: -1 point

FINAL TOTAL: 14 - 9 - 5

Right - 50%
Wrong - 32%
Push - 18%

Labels: draft picks, fantasy draft, fantasy football, fantasy nfl, football

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Memorandum: NBC

Last Sunday was Week 13 in the NFL's regular season. For the past 13 Sunday evenings, we your viewing audience, has listened to John Madden and Al Michaels go completely silent for periods of up to one minute. Yeah, this is a nice break from hearing such Madden-isms as "Well, Al, these guys are just gonna have to get out there and play football." and "The thing I like about, so-and-so, is that when he throws the ball, he uses his whole arm." But, dammit, it's just unprofessional on your end!

Week 13! Has the DLP Hi-Definition Johnny-5 camera that hovers around the field depleted the microphone budget? I want answers NBC! There's no excuse for this to have gone on for 13 weeks straight.

Although, it has made me chuckle to think that maybe the silence is just the physical manifestation of Al Michael's happy place, since the silences tend to come toward the end of the game when Madden is punch drunk on cold cuts and cheese and just rambling out Madden-isms. But, that's just me... So, just fix it.

Labels: al michaels, john madden, nbc, nfl, sunday night football

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