Waaaay back in June, I sat down and made some predictions in an article called Sleepers & Busters: 2007 Edition. One of my favorite comments I received on this article was glaringly posted on the front page of my site. It simply read: "I disagree with just about everything in this article. Pull your head out of your ass". Awesome.

Now that we're smack in the middle of the season, we can get a pretty good early idea how I did. The whole point of the article was to see what players were being overvalued and undervalued. So, I will gauge correct/incorrect on fantasy points accumulated in a standard scoring league. Now, let's take a look and see if I can stop sniffing my prostate yet.

Quarterbacks

Sleeper: Phillip Rivers - SD - His average ranking amongst 11 different sources at the time of the article was 12.45. He's currently got the 13th highest point totals amongst all QBs. That's pretty damn close to accurate.

Result: Push

Buster: Vince Young - TEN - At the time of publication, Michael Vick's and Daunte Culpepper's love child was ranked at 8.64. Right now, he's ranked at #29. Oooo...that's not good!

Result: PASS!

Bold Prediction: Alex Smith - SF - The prediction was that he'd be a Top 10 QB by season's end. We're not there yet, but PHEW! Something tells me I was WAAAAAY off on that one.

Result: FAIL!

Running Backs

Jerrious Norwood - ATL - Well, he's making a big time play right now, but early on he was a ghost. His average ranking was 37.36, his current ranking is #34. That's not way off, but the way that he's playing now and the way he's stealing Dunn's carries warrants a...

Result: PASS!

Travis Henry - DEN - He started off strong, and I admit I was scared that I was way off in my farting on Henry's head. His average ranking was 13.09, right now he's looking at #22. With upcoming trials and drug tests and current injuries, I hope you listened early on.

Result: PASS!

Bold Prediction: Larry Johnson - KC - The prediction was that he'd be the highest point scorer in the league. Well that was before the contract hold out and before Tom Brady joined the Superfriends. Right now Mr. Johnson sits way down at #51 overall. Booooo...

Result: FAIL!

Wide Receivers

Sleeper: Drew Bennett - STL - Barf. This was probably my worst pick. His average ranking was 46.91, his current ranking is #78 and falling fast with a repellent offense and little to no prospects. Barf...

Result: FAIL!

Buster: Larry Fitzgerald - ARI - Arizona has seen some interesting ideas and interesting obstacles come their way this season. Lar-Bear had an average ranking of 7.27 back in June, now he is ranked #20. For receivers, that's not way off, but for me it's still a victory.

Result: PASS!

Bold Prediction: Marques Colston - NO - Kind of an arbitrary prediction saying he would "hit the sophomore slump this season", but I think, arbitrary or not, I'm pretty right considering he fell from an average ranking of 12.00 to a current ranking of #22 (plus, give credit where it's due he scored 22.5 of his 62.8 total points last week against the 49ers. That's 36% of his total points!)

Result: PASS!

Tight Ends

Sleeper: Benjamin Watson - NE - He injured himself last week, but still up to this point he's gone from an average ranking of 9.36 to a current ranking of #8. I have to think Mike Vrabel and Kyle Brady are eating TDs that would've gone Watson's way, as well.

Result: PASS!

Buster: Jeremy Shockey - NYG - With Plaxico having such a great season, Shockey's fallen to the wayside. He started with an average ranking of 4.73 and has fallen to #9.

Result: PASS!

Bold Prediction: Alge Crumpler - ATL - "Alge Crumpler will barely be a Top 10 TE by season's end" Let's ignore the verbiage here and get to the point of the statement: he will suck this season. There, that's better. He fell from an average ranking of 5.00 to #18. So, not only is he out of the Top 10, he sucks pretty bad.

Result: PASS!

Kickers

Sleeper: Rian Lindell - BUF - Well, what can I say? The Bills suck and it's reflecting on Lindell...and I was wrong. Okay, you happy? His average ranking was 18.33, he's now ranked at #28. Ouch. Not only was I wrong, he's barely not the worst kicker to own in the league. Yuck.

Result: FAIL!

Buster: Robbie Gould - CHI - He came in with an average ranking of 4.11, ranked as high as #1 among all kickers. Now he stands at #12. Take that, Rian Lindell!

Result: PASS!

Bold Prediction: Mike Vanderjagt - HUH? - I said that he would return to the league and become a Top 10 kicker. That was some GOOOOOOD crack!

Result: FAIL!

Defenses

Sleeper: Green Bay Packers - Way back in June, the experts had them ranked at 12.00. Those crazy experts! Now they're ranked at number...oh, wait....#12. Okay, there you go.

Result: Push.

Buster: Miami Dolphins - Can you believe this group of pixies had an average ranking of 6.70 back in June? Wow, huh? You know, because now they are the official worst defense you could own at #32.

Result: PASS!

Bold Prediction: San Diego Chargers - Secretly this was the reason I wanted to go over my predictions at the midway point. Wait...now it's not a secret. Damn. I said "The San Diego Chargers will become the #1 defense this season." Guess what? Edging out the Patriots defense by one point, the San Diego Chargers have the most valuable defense in the league!

Result: PASS!

Alright, Rod Roddy, what's the overall score thus far?

11 - 5 - 2 (69% correct) Read more...

What's that smell you say? Check your feet, if you didn't walk through something, it's probably my picks from last week. Diabolical! I went 4 for 11, and for the 4th straight week killed one of my picks with Ronnie Brown going down for the season. Unfortunately, last week's stale fart of an article brought me down to 64% on the season. We must rebuild it! Let's get to work:

Better Than Usual: QBs

Brian Griese - CHI vs. DET - As desperate as it seemed when the Bears benched Grossman for their aged clipboard holder, Griese has come on and gotten stronger every week. He's not just focusing on Berrian, he's spreading the ball around like Hepatitis at a Phish concert. Playing against the 30th ranked pass defense at home should guarantee 17+ points this weekend.

Chad Pennington - NYJ vs. BUF - Well, this is it for Chad. This will be a monumental game for him, and no one will really notice. If he does well, he'll be the starter next week again. If he craps the bed again, he will join the ranks of Joey Harrington, forced out of a job, destined for a new team and a new clipboard to hold for the rest of his career. If he can't get 17+ points this week against the #31 ranked pass defense, then he shouldn't even hold Harrington's clipboard.

Not So Much: QBs

Brett Favre - GB @ DEN - Well, it sounds like Champ Bailey will be back this week. Add that to the fact that since Week 2, Favre's QB Rating has dropped each week (although it'll be hard to get worse than 43.5 from Week 6) and multiply that by the stiffness in old man joints brought on by a bye week last week. Well, that's a formula for failure.

Jeff Garcia - TB vs. JAC - It's the battle of America's Penis (Florida, people...). With Quinn Gray at the helm again this week in Jacksonville, after a week of looking like someone let a confused and frightened high school kid on the field, Tampa should pretty much own this game. That means not so much passing, and even when Jeffy does pass, chances are good he might just throw his first INT of the season. Which isn't life or death on the field, but in fantasy it's -2 and that just sucks.

Better Than Usual: RBs

Steven Jackson - STL vs. CLE - It's the moment many frustrated fantasy players have waited for, Steven Jackson returns to football! And what better welcoming party than the 30th ranked rush defense who has given up 100+ rushing yards to every starting running back to face them this season. Many last placed teams are very excited about their chances now.

Brandon Jacobs - NYG vs. MIA - Garbage time is generally defined by the last few minutes of a lop-sided game. Well, we're probably looking at around 50-55 minutes of garbage time in this game, in which Derrick Ward won't be hawking carries and Brandon Jacobs will be running through candy clouds and rainbows (or the Miami defense if you want to be technical...) as confused Brits storm the ticket booth wondering where David Beckham is.

Not So Much: RBs

Clinton Portis - WAS @ NE - This is a bad situation. The Patriots haven't scored less than 34 points yet this season. The Redskins haven't scored more than 34 and they've only done that once. That means the Redskins will spend a lot of time on their asses.

Kenny Watson - CIN vs. PIT - Wow! He was something special last week wasn't he? I was glad I grabbed him at the last minute off of waivers. Well, that all ends this week. Pittsburgh eats back up running backs for breakfast.

Better Than Usual: WRs

Santonio Holmes - PIT @ CIN - Santonio has been great in his second season. He's proven that defenses better not stack themselves on Hines Ward, and Heath Miller is a threat as well. So, with a really really bad Bengal defense spread around trying to cover all of Big Ben's targets, Mr. Holmes should be wide open for even more TDs.

Chris Chambers - SD vs. HOU - Will he be the best WR out there this week? No. But, I've got a couple of reasons for backing Chris Chambers. He's excited to be playing for a contender for the first time in his career. He's had a week to study up and practice. He's right back into a Norv Turner system. He knows the game, and I think San Diego is going to try and air it out and see exactly what a second round draft pick bought them a couple of weeks ago.

Not So Much: WRs

Steve Smith - CAR vs. IND - Boy, he looked sharp all over again against Arizona hooking up with Grandpa Vinny. It was enough to make you say, "Wait, it took Vinny Testeverde to bring Steve Smith out of his shell again?" Well, now Bob Sanders will be covering Mr. Smith, and why not? Who else are the Panthers going to throw to as tehy get their asses handed to them?

Chad Johnson - CIN vs. PIT - Ocho Stinko has plummeted into a depression. He's said he's not dancing any more (which must have GoDaddy.com pretty upset), he and Carson Palmer look like Paris Hilton and Nicole Richie on the field, and well he's just plain ol' getting out shined by Houshmandzadeh. Not only do I not expect him to put up good numbers this weekend, I'd be shocked if he plays the whole game. Depression's a bitch. Read more...

So, last Sunday I had been waiting all week for the Patriots vs Cowboys. Sitting on my hands, just really excited to see a shoot out of monumental proportions. Friday morning my wife hits me with some news: "Don't forget we're going to a birthday party on Sunday." "Sunday!? What time Sunday?!" "3:00." "What the... Who the..." Suddenly my ears begin to smoke. Everyone knows kids birthday parties are on Saturday! Who in the hell has a birthday party at 3:00 on Sunday?! My initial reaction is, "I'm not going." But, rationality hits and and decide that I do like these people and I don't want to look like a dick...so I go. Begrudgingly...

Needless to say, I didn't watch much football on Sunday. I TiVoed the game, but it just wasn't the same. I couldn't check my fantasy stats as the game went on for fear of seeing the score...it was just ruined. But, anyway, I went 7 for 11 last week with Kurt Warner going down in the first quarter making him a push, bringing my season total to 47 for 69 (68%). Let's do it again, shall we?

Better Than Usual: QBs

Marc Bulger - STL @ SEA - It's gonna be a tough matchup in the world's loudest stadium against a pretty good defense. But, apparently Scott Linehan flew over the edge a couple of days ago during a team meeting about how bad the Rams have sucked. Apparently it was such a furious tangent that it's made Bulger decide to come back, sore ribs or not. That sounds like a fire has been lit under some asses.

Trent Edwards - BUF vs. BAL - Wait, what? Yep. Here's my logic. The Ravens are expected to be missing Ray Lewis and Chris McAllister on Sunday. Trent Edwards was recently named the starter despite J.P. Losman coming back and having done nothing to lose the job. Expect Edwards to try his damndest to keep this job against a hobbled mecha-defense.

Not So Much: QBs

Jay Cutler - DEN vs. PIT - I honestly have never seen what anyone sees in this douche. But, for whatever reason he's owned in just about every league I've seen. Whatever. He's got nothing going for him this week.

Eli Manning - NYG vs. SF - I have a feeling San Francisco's defense is often underestimated. They're not great. But, they ought to make some picks on the honorary Charger. Then when the Giants inevitably get the lead on Dilfer and crew, Brandon Jacobs will start hording the ball.

Better Than Usual: RBs

Larry Johnson - KC @ OAK - He damn well better be with Priest Holmes almost certain to be activated for game time.

Shaun Alexander - SEA vs. STL - Larry Johnson and Shaun Alexander on the same "don't worry, things will look better this week" list? Yeah, it's been that kind of season, hasn't it. What a rotten game we play, huh?

Not So Much: RBs

Ronnie Brown - MIA vs. NE - Usually the #1 running back and #3 overall player should be a shoe-in "must play". But, not this week. There shouldn't be much running involved in Miami this week, except for the training staff as they rush out to clean up the carnage on the field before the seagulls start swooping in.

Willis McGahee - BAL @ BUF - It sounds like, deep down, McGahee may be a little scared to return to Buffalo. Understandable, as he was named the most hated athlete in Buffalo recently. I also fully expect that Kyle Boller and company will have to play catch up against an embarrassingly bad Buffalo team with all the injuries to the offensive line and defense.

Better Than Usual: WRs

Santana Moss - WAS vs. ARI - Sounds like Santana's healthy again. After reading about him pulling himself out of the game after he made a stupid mistake last week, I'm WAY on board that Moss wants to produce in a big way. Playing at home against a bad Arizona pass defense, sounds like a good time to remind Randle-El who rules (O'Doyle).

Joe Horn - ATL @ NO - I know it's corny and all to think that athletes look to step it up against their former teammates, but come on. How long was Horn the face of the franchise in New Orleans? Forget it, lock it up...seven plus points this weekend.

Not So Much: WRs

Kevin Curtis - PHI vs. CHI - Who let this guy in? Way to break all the Reggie Brown owners' hearts, Kev! Well, Reggie's back, and while a still handicapped Bears' defense is focused on you, Reggie's gonna take all your passes...so NYAH!

Marvin Harrison - IND @ JAC - I think it's beginning to become apparent that the Peyton to Marvin combo is coming to an end in Indianapolis. It's a sad transition after watching it for so long, but that's the way it goes. Nothing lasts forever. All of that aside, Jacksonville should eat Marvin's lunch all day long. Read more...

In a season where the entire first rounds of most people's fantasy football drafts have played below standards or been injured more often than not (with the exceptions of Ronnie Brown and more recently LaDanian Tomlinson), I was left with the question, "What the fedge?!" (Give it up for my boy Grant from Ghost Hunters!)

I started thinking about this silly past time and the topsy-turvy way it's treated us all this season, and I thought, "Are wide receivers taking over the game?" Randy Moss, Plaxico Burress, Braylon Edwards, T.J. Houshmandzadeh... These guys are tearing up the game right now. Case in point, going back to 2001, there has not been a wide receiver in the Overall Top 10 Fantasy Points earners list. Not even one.

This season, so far, there's two. Randy Moss and Plaxico Burress.

So, I decided to burn a day making a spreadsheet. (You can download the whole spreadsheet here if you feel like nerding out a little.) I wanted to see just what the stats were up to this season in comparison to past seasons. Turns out, I was kind of right...

Take a look at the chart generated by the Fantasy Points Per Game generated by the Top 15 players at each position:



So, yeah, I was kind of right in the way that it would appear that Wide Receivers are way up this season. Wide Receivers averaged around 11.35 fantasy points per game over the past six seasons. In 2007, Wide Receivers are up almost a full point to 12.27 points per game. Now, one point may not seem like a lot, but in the grand scheme of things it is.

At the same time, if Wide Receivers are up then obviously their providers, the QB, should be up as well. Well, not so much, it would seem. The top 15 quarterbacks averaged 16.25 points per game over the past 6 seasons prior to 2007. In 2007, they're averaging 16.46. That's barely one-fifth of a point.

If you look back to 2001, you see the beginning of a rocky crag of peaks and valleys for QBs, starting with the pinnacle of their mountain range, a 17.77 points per game average. Over the next 6 years, we see them dip and rise. However, if you look back to 2001 on the wide receiver line, it's almost flat. It stays almost flat right up until this season.

What does that tell us then in 2007 where the Top 15 Wide Receivers point averages are up a good bit for the first time in 7 years, yet the QB totals fall right around the average? That's telling us that quarterbacks are targeting the Top 15 receivers far more frequently than receivers who didn't fall onto the list.

So, that means while many of us were focused on the point deviations of positions to tell us that you HAVE to draft running backs first since the first 3 are so much better than the other 12 in the Top 15, that we ended up failing ourselves when teams went pass happy.

Here's the deviation chart to show you how far apart #1 and #15 were, points-wise, over the last 7 seasons. It's funny how you can see in 2004 when Peyton Manning set the TD record in 2004. That's also the season that Antonio Gates came into the league. You can clearly see where LT set the TD mark in 2006, and the Ravens owned the D/ST position.



Now, all the while we've seen the top notch receivers blow through the roof, we're seeing running backs shit all over themselves. The ones who aren't injured aren't producing, and the ones who are producing are generally people who weren't on your hot list at the beginning of the season. So, we're seeing good running backs with low numbers and mediocre running backs brought in to fill in for their rotten predecessors with higher numbers. That being said, we're not seeing a large deviation in running backs this season. The nobodies are putting up numbers as good as the stars. For example, last season's point deviation between LaDanian Tomlinson (#1) and Ahman Green (#15) was 254 points(the difference between #1 & #2 that season was 100). However, the deviation this season among running backs is only 63. Granted, that number will get higher as the season wears on and the cream begins to float to the top.

But, right now...it looks like everything we thought we knew was wrong. Thus is life, thus is fantasy football. Read more...

Miss Vaughn: Good morning, class.
Class:Good morning, Miss Vaughn.
Miss Vaughn:We're gonna start today by reading a short story entitled "My Sister Fanny".
Class:*giggles aloud
Miss Vaughn:Quiet... OK, so let's all open up our Reading is Fun books to page 69.
Billy Madison:69!

Why the Billy Madison reference? Because thanks to Week 5's 10 for 11 performance, I now have a 69% overall accuracy rating for picking over/underachievers. My only downfalls were saying that Joseph Addai's playing time would be so limited that he wouldn't score 10 points (when in fact he didn't play at all.) and going out on a limb once again for Drew "Here's a quarter... why don't you go downtown and find a rat to chew that thing off your face?" Brees. Let's see if we can't break the 70% mark this week.

Better Than Usual: QBs

Daunte Culpepper - OAK @ SD - Culpepper lucked into 5 touchdowns (2 passing, 3 rushing) on 103 TOTAL yards. Kind of an anomaly. I'm not sure how that kind of thing happens. Anyways, San Diego, coming off of a blow out victory and going into their bye week next week are setting themselves up for a fall, and with the 27th ranked passing defense in the land, Culpepper should surpass the 17 point mark.

Kurt Warner - ARI vs. CAR - What is this, the year 2000? Culpepper and Warner in the same Overachiever list? Who's next, Elvis Grbac? Nah, come on. Leinart's been busy shirking his paternal responsibilities and putting his penis in things. Warner has been pretty damn solid taking his share of the team. Now with Warner as the only act in town, Boldin possibly back, and the Panther's 24th ranked pass defense in town, looks like Kurt's man-beast of a wife will have something to clap about again.

Not So Much: QBs

Brett Favre - GB vs. WAS - Yeah, I know it's hard to score less than 17 points when the Packers pass the ball around 75% of the time, but I feel it this week. Washington's defense is pretty friggin' nasty right now, and the Redskins can't wait to try and make the Packers 4-2 going into their bye.

Carson Palmer - CIN @ KC - This will mark Palmer's third appearance on the ol' Not So Much board this season. I was right the last two times, and I'm right this time. Kansas City is the 5th best pass defensing team in the NFL, and Palmer and Ocho Stinko...if I may be blunt...look like a couple of bitches out there.

Better Than Usual: RBs

Larry Johnson - KC vs. CIN - Okay, San Diego figured out how to just give the ball to LaDanian. Next up, Larry Johnson! Figure it out, Herm. If Larry Johnson can't make it happen at home against the Bengals...well, we're going to see a lot of formerly smug fantasy footballers with missing patches of hair on Monday morning.

Ahman Green - HOU @ JAC - Before injuring his knee, Ahman Green was averaging 4.3 YPC. Not great, but WAY better than Ron Dayne's current 2.9. Green is fully expected to be back on the field Sunday, and should be very able to get 10+ points for your team.

Not So Much: RBs

Derrick Ward - NYG @ ATL - It was a fun ride, wasn't it? Things looked bleak for Brandon Jacobs owners early on. Well, Derrick Ward jumper-oners I hope you sold high, because even if this becomes a time share situation, it won't last long. Especially with Ward being dinged up. Sell him off of your team before he loses all of his worth.

Clinton Portis - WAS @ GB - "I know who ate those lunches...it was that damned Sasquatch." If by Sasquatch she meant the Packers' rush defense, then the old lady was as warm as peed pants. And if peeing in your pants is cool, consider me Miles Davis.

Better Than Usual: WRs

Derrick Mason - BAL vs. STL - Old reliable. You gotta love Mason for what he is. He's like your old favorite blue jeans with the frayed holes worn through the corners of your ass pockets. Nothing flashy, but they'll get you from point A to point B without riding up your ass. Up against the Rams' secondary, even Vinny Testeverde throwing to David Boston after a reefer binge could light up the scoreboard.

Reggie Brown - PHI @ NYJ - I don't know what I'm thinking. I might as well put a big red X over this pick right now. But, the Eagles are nice and rested from a bye week. and they're playing the craptastic Jets. If Brown doesn't produce over 7 points this week, feel free to mail him a box of poop.

Not So Much: WRs

Plaxico Burress - NYG @ ATL - Burress has been having a career season and if you wound up with Randy Moss and Burress on the same team...well, whoopdie-doo for you. But, remember a couple of weeks ago when Steve Smith was in Plaxico's seat and I said DeAngelo Hall would shut him down and then he did and Steve Smith hasn't done jack since? Same thing here.

Patrick Crayton - DAL vs. NE - Everyone is on the Crayton wagon. And why shouldn't you be? He's been as solid as a frozen cat out there lately. Well, during the game of the season this week, the Patriots will be reminding the Cowboys what a real team looks like all day long. Read more...

I know that I am going to sound like your Uncle Ned who sits in his bedroom, windows covered with aluminum foil, chain smoking Dorals and hovering over his short wave radio...what? I thought everyone had someone like that in their family. Whatever, I live in Alabama. Anyways, I had a revelation today and I've been looking out of my window for black helicopters ever since. Put on your tin foil hat as you read this, lest you be snatched away from your keyboard by Goodell's Men In Black.

The season's final results are predetermined according to what disaster has most recently occurred. Here's the examples that most easily came to mind:

After September 11th, 2001, or as David Cross once called it, "The Day Football Stopped", the nation was stunned by the largest ever attack on our country. Football was understandably canceled across the board for the week. When play resumed on September 23rd we saw two things happen, the New York Giants defeated Kansas City 13-3 and in a cruel twist of irony, the Jets defeated the Patriots 10-3.

Now, it would have been easy to pave the way for New York to cruise to the Super Bowl and win the big game for America. But, which team do you send? It might be too easy to make it Giants vs. Jets. People would smell a set up from a mile away. So, what do you do in this new patriotic land of patriotism? Ah ha! You take a struggling team, mired in last place for the previous two seasons and 2nd to last the year before that, and you pit them against the 14 point favorite "Greatest Show On Turf" and have them win. Which is exactly what the Patriots did to the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI.

On August 29th, 2005, Hurricane Katrina tore through the Gulf Coast (including Mobile, where I live). It flooded the streets of New Orleans, killing thousands. It was the worst natural disaster to ever occur in our country. Playing home games in Baton Rouge and anywhere else that would host them and being outed from their practice facility by high school volleyball games sent the already miserable Saints to a worse than usual 3-13 season.

Upon their return to a destitute New Orleans, a refurbished Superdome, and rabid fans in dire need of a pick me up, the Saints destroyed the Falcons. They continued that level of motivation, pulling together a 10-6 record and earning themselves a trip to the playoffs as America's sweetheart favorites. They were a feel good story that would give you diabetes if you watched too closely.

Well, like AIDS, Darfur, and Freedom Fries, even the truly horrible things fade to the background. George Bush doesn't care about black people, and everyone else had American Idol and such on their minds. After the Saints fell out of the playoffs, New Orleans fell out of everyone's hearts. Now, they're riding a 0-4 start down the toilet, and I thought I saw some paper bags with "Who Dat?" covering a few heads this Sunday.

On a lesser note, and I hate to compare the impending retirement of Brett Favre to these horrible disasters, but let's face it; in Green Bay, Wisconsin, Favre's retirement will be about the closest thing our lactose tolerant friends will see to a disaster on par with the above until the walls of a giant vat of cheese burst, flooding the streets with cheddar. But, I digress...

Favre will likely be retiring after this season. On paper, I think most of us would agree, the Packers are not very good. There was no way that anyone could predict a 4-1 start to the season..no one but Goodell's Men In Black. I think Michael Strahan may be involved somehow, returning the favor of Brett Favre flopping himself to the ground at the touch of Strahan's pinky tip for the sack record, but I can't confirm that belief.

There's something fishy going on around here, and my eyes are WIDE open! Now, quickly, delete the cookies and browsing history from your browser before it's too l Read more...

Here we are: Week 5! It's amazing how, once you get into the swing of things, how quickly football season starts to fly by. Last week the Over/Under picks were solid, maybe you listened, maybe you didn't. But, I won all of my games and remain in 1st place in 2 of my 3 leagues. How did you do? Last week's 7 for 11 (Alex Smith played 3 downs, it was hard to gauge which direction he was headed) showing lifted my season totals to 30 for 47, or 64% according to the Funston Scale O' Success (QBs > 15 points, RBs > 10 points, WRs > 7 points). So, get out your notepads, class is about to start.

Better Than Usual: QBs

Donovan McNabb - BYE - Because sitting on your ass is better than negative 9 points, right? Kidding... On to the real picks.

Drew Brees - NO vs. CAR - Okay, this is an ideal situation for a comeback. The Saints are coming off of a bye week at home to play a Panthers team who has looked downright repugnant the last two games. Their pass defense is in the bottom half of the league. If Brees can't pull it together this Sunday, write him off if you haven't already.

Jeff Garcia - TB @ IND - I know, I know. The Colt's pass defense is very solid. But, Bob Sanders will either be out or very very tender with bruised ribs. Plus, the Bucs will be playing from behind all day without Cadillac. I think Jeffy can make it happen.

Not So Much: QBs

Matt Hasselbeck - SEA @ PIT - This will be Hasselbeck's first true test this season. Against the likes of Tampa Bay, Arizona, Cincinnati, and San Francisco he's looked pretty good. But, pretty good won't cut it against possibly the best defense in the league currently.

Jon Kitna - DET @ WAS - Kitna has been playing out of his element all season with a receiving corps that is better than Kitna's boy, Jesus. However, Washington has a pretty solid passing defense and Calvin Johnson may or may not be available the whole game. Better hope Jesus isn't watching the Patriots game, Kitna.

Better Than Usual: RBs

Reggie Bush - NO vs. CAR - There's been a lot of speculation as of late about Reggie Bush not being the superstar everyone expected. Well, I think he is. Now he won't be sharing carries, and watch as he proves the doubters wrong in this NFC South matchup at home.

Brandon Jacobs - NYG vs. NYJ - He's baaaack! The only problem is that Derrick Ward has been playing so well that Jacobs won't be getting all the carries. But, the good news is that Ward wasn't getting the red zone carries very often anyways, so feel good about playing Brandon Jacobs against the 5th worst run defense in the league.

Not So Much: RBs

Marshawn Lynch - BUF vs. DAL - Dallas eats running backs for breakfast + Dallas 56, Buffalo 3 halftime score = Very little action for Marshawn Lynch.

Joseph Addai - IND vs. TB - He's been great, but now he's got an injured shoulder. The Bucs will keep the Colts honest with a surprisingly good defense. But, when the Colts get up on the Bucs and move to their running game to run down the clock, it will be Kenton Keith running out the clock, not Addai if he can even make it that long. Shoulder injuries on running backs worry me.

Better Than Usual: WRs

Drew Bennett - STL vs. ARI - This is the week, right here. This is the week that Drew Bennett shows his sleeper stuff. Isaac Bruce is unlikely to play, there's a fresh QB at the helm, a weakish defense in town. Everything adds up. This is Drew Bennett's week.

Antwaan Randle El - WAS vs. DET - Santana Moss is sounding less and less likely to play this week against a rotten Detroit pass defense. If this is the case, feel free to stick Randle El in the mix this week.

Not So Much: WRs

Dwayne Bowe - KC vs. JAC - Wow, Kansas City hasn't had speed like this since George Brett shot out of the dugout after having a home run erased for having too much tar on his bat. Unfortunately, Jacksonville has the third best pass defense and no one else to bother keying in on.

Deion Branch - SEA @ PIT - The unrelenting attack of Pittsburgh's defense will be plenty to keep Branch under wraps all day. Plus, Bobby Engram established himself pretty well last week. With Branch being guarded closely and other valid options available...goodnight, Mr. Branch. Read more...

So, I found myself driving down the road, jamming some Mastodon, when I thought to myself, "Man, imagine if you put Brann Dailor (drummer from Mastodon) in a band with Buckethead on guitar, Mike Patton on vocals, and Trevor Roy Dunn on bass. God, THAT would be phenomenal!" Then, I thought, "You know what? It probably wouldn't. Each of those guys is so technically sound and their style is so tight that they could never productively coexist in the same group." It's the same reason why Hendrix had a goofy white guy with one snare and a high hat as his drummer in the Experience. Because what Hendrix needed was complimentary pieces to his monstrous style, people who laid down the rhythm for him to wail on.

Then came Band of Gypsys. Now that was a great album. He replaced his white bread rhythm section with some soul, and it was a great thing to behold. But, down the line, when you really think about it, the songs played by The Band of Gypsys were just the songs originally written by The Experience souped up by the stylings of an all-star cast. Then the facts rear their ugly head. Band of Gypsys were great for what they were, but they were essentially a novelty. The true talent, and the true center of this rock phenomenon was Jimi Hendrix.

You put Buddy Miles behind the drums and Billy Cox on bass and you've got 20 minute versions of "Machine Gun" and so forth, which is great for a time. But, you stick Mitch Mitchell behind the drums and Noel Redding on bass, you've got staying power. Classic after classic was written by these guys, just because Mitch and Noel knew to sit back, cover Jimi's ass, and enjoy the ride.

The super group always looks good on paper, let's go through a few, and if you're not musically inclined, bear with me I'll be getting to my point soon:

1. Travelling Wilburys - Bob Dylan, Tom Petty, Jeff Lynn, Roy Orbison, and George Harrison. Seriously, that is possibly one of the most important lineups in musical history. Every person in the band is a legend. But, and some may argue with me, this album is a novelty that doesn't stand up to any of their individual efforts.
2. Damn Yankees - Jack Blades (Night Ranger), Tommy Shaw (Styx), Ted Nugent, and Michael Cartellone (a million bands). This band should have rocked. They didn't. They sold a bunch of albums, but so did Mili Vanili.
3. Oysterhead - Les Claypool (Primus), Trey Anastasio (Phish), and Stewart Copeland (The Police). Wow! What a line up! Each person's style and technique is tighter than Barry Bonds' baseball cap. Too bad the album they made is absolute crap.

So, why am I talking about all of this music? What exactly is my point as it pertains to sports?

What other places have we seen super groups created with great expectations who ultimately fall on their faces? Baseball! Free spending, salary cap-free, championship crazed Major League Baseball.

The New York Yankees won the World Series 4 out of 5 years between 1996 and 2000. Let's look at what their lineup GENERALLY consisted of. (I say generally because obviously a few people came and went during the five years, but the lineup stayed relatively the same.)

C: Jorge Posada
1B: Tino Martinez
2B: Chuck Knobloch
3B: Scott Brosius
SS: Derek Jeter
LF: Chad Curtis
CF: Bernie Williams
RF: Paul O'Neill

A couple of those names were different from year to year, but this is generally recent history's World Series juggernaut lineup, and at the time, not one of those players were flat out superstars. They were a collection of men who knew their roles, knew what needed to be done, and each contributed what they could to the pursuit of winning...and they did that a lot.

But, then in 2001, the juggernauts didn't win it all. They looked like they might, but Luis Gonzalez and the Arizona Diamondbacks pulled the rug right out from under them. This left a nasty taste in Steinbrenner's mouth. But, a funny thing happened in the offseason. A flux of premier free agents became available. With so much available talent in free agency at the end of 2001, teams realized they could field an entire All-Star team within their own confines. The Mets quickly snapped up Roberto Alomar, Mo Vaughn, and Jeromy Burnitz. Not to be upstaged by the cross town rival, Steinbrenner did what he knew how to do better than anyone, he started throwing money around.

2002 saw Jason Giambi and David Wells don pinstripes. It also spawned 103 victories for the Yanks, but ended with a collapse in the ALDS to the wild card Anaheim Angels (who went on to win it all with a payroll $65 million dollars less than the Yankees). Well, that was worse than the year before! The Mets faired much worse, falling into last place with a 75-86 record. What do you do now, George? Throw more money at the situation!

2003 brought Godzilla to Gotham City. The price tag was steep and the hype was even steeper. However, it brought a 101 win season and the inevitable World Series loss in 6 games to the Bartman aided Florida Marlins. Yet ANOTHER wild card team torches the Yankees and with 10 fewer regular season wins than the Yankees (and a $104 million cheaper payroll) to boot.

2004 is where the free agency supergroup evolution truly came to a head. Sick of losing to wild card teams full of scrappy youngsters, Steinbrenner opened up his wallet, turned it upside down over his desk and dumped all of it's contents into free agency. 2004 brought in Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, Esteban Loaiza, Jose Contreras, Javier Vazquez, Jon Lieber, and Kevin Brown. It also raised payroll by almost $32 million from 2003 to 2004 (The Yankees' 1996 payroll was just over $52 million). You may remember the 2004 post season. Yankees up 3-0 in the ALCS and cruising to the World Series. Bottom of the 9th, the Red Sox tie the game, then win in the 12th. They eventually went on to win the next 8 games to take the World Series.

In the meantime, Steinbrenner grows more and more frustrated that money isn't stopping the losing. Since the Yankees last won the World Series, the World Series winners' payroll has ranked like this:

2001 - #9 Diamondbacks ($85 million)
2002 - #15 Angels ($62 million)
2003 - #25 Marlins ($49 million)
2004 - #2 Red Sox ($127 million)
2005 - #13 White Sox ($75 million)
2006 - #11 Cardinals ($89 million)

With the exception of the Red Sox, we've seen nothing but scrappy teams pulling together for the victory. Nothing but Jimi Hendrix and The Experience. The Band of Gypsies are all sitting at home.

The moral of this story is that it's becoming more and more apparent that a successful team cannot be bought. Players need to come up through the system with each other. They need aging veterans to learn from. They need a lead guitarist so that they can lay down the rhythm for him. When you have a team full of lead guitarists, it's just going to turn into a noodly mess.

Case in point, and it pains me to say it, the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs spent more money this off season than they ever had. They brought in superstars and bought themselves a team, just like Steinbrenner. Now look at them... They are getting their asses handed to them by a group of scrappers with the 17th highest payroll. I wish the Cubs nothing but luck and will support them to the death, but this isn't a team, it's a collection of lead guitarists. Read more...