We've been screwing around in the wading pool with all of the various infield positions, but now it's time to slide on some floaties and plunge into the murky abyss. The vast Outfielder Ocean. It's inhabitants are as varying as the inhabitants of the Mariana Trench (the deepest part of the ocean where life barely exists, for those who aren't down with their oceanology.) You've got giant whales lumbering around (Carlos Lee), violent predators (Jose Guillen, Delmon Young), and puny prey (Juan Pierre, Kenny Lofton).

Perusing the outfielders is mush like stepping into Super Wal-Mart, except you don't feel like killing yourself afterward. There's merchand...Jesus, enough of the metaphors, jackass. Let's break out some sleepers and busters:


Sleepers:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury - Boston Red Sox - If everyone knows he's a sleeper, does that player still remain a sleeper? In this case I'll say yes, because I don't think everyone realizes the kind of player Ellsbury has the potential to be, especially playing for perennial contender Boston. Last season Ellsbury only showed up in 33 games, if we project his numbers from 2007 into a 145 game season in 2008, his stat line looks like this: 91 runs, 14 home runs, 83 RBI, and 41 stolen bases. Quite a deal at his current ranking of #42 among all outfielders.

2. Josh Hamilton - Texas Rangers - This guy's had a GREAT spring. Add that to the fact that he belted 19 home runs in 90 games all the while maintaining an almost .300 batting average, and I get VERY excited. Hitting in a light Rangers lineup, the pressure will be on Hamilton to perform. But he's projected out to hit 33 out of the park this season. I like those odds from someone you can get in the middle rounds of a draft.

3. Chris Young - Arizona Diamondbacks - I was at a double header for the Mobile BayBears (formerly the Padres Double-A affiliate) where the BayBears were playing the Birmingham Barons (White Sox affiliate). I sat there and watched Chris Young steal 4 bases in the first game, then in the second game he smacked two home runs and stole two more bases. I knew right there we were going to see big things from this guy, and sure enough, three years later, here we are. Young's average isn't pretty, it's not even 2 AM, Goldschlager, back alley doable. But, who cares when I feel good projecting out 30 home runs and 35 stolen bases from the 22nd ranked outfielder. Look out, Soriano.

4. Jerry Owens - Chicago White Sox - Ladies and gentlemen, meet the next Juan Pierre. Jerry Owens might hit like Jerry's Kids, but he runs like Jesse Owens. The kid has all but earned the starting spot in center for the White Sox, and stole 32 bases in 93 games. Assuming Owens holds on to the starting gig all season, expect 50+ SBs, but not much else. What's even more interesting, he's only owned on 11% of ESPN teams.

5. Jacque Jones - Detroit Tigers - He fell off the map after a piss poor season being shuffled around in a crowded Cubs outfield last season. Well, for now, he's got a starting gig in Detroit's powerful lineup and, once again, if you look historically last season was Jacque's only bad season since 1999. He's not too old pick up where he left off in 2006 when he slugged 27 dingers. And, as the 84th ranked outfielder he can be had for the price of an Oreo cookie.

Busters:

1. Bobby Abreu - New York Yankees - It wasn't that long ago that I was singing the praises of people like Abreu. The type who can hit and run. But, then I had an epiphany. If you look at HRs and SBs as singular stats, 16 home runs isn't very many and neither is 25 stolen bases. On top of that, Bobby will be 34 this year, right around the time where players not named Kenny Lofton start slowing down on the base paths. If he pulls a 15/20 season this year, that doesn't bode well for the 14th ranked outfielder.

2. Eric Byrnes - Arizona Diamondbacks - Ummm... Did this guy take a Fred McGriff video baseball course in 2006 or something? How often do you see a 30 year old run of the mill player suddenly break out into superstardom? Not often, and I'm often very leary of those who do. You can view him as the 20th ranked outfielder, or you can view him as a guy playing way above his potential, like me. He had a great 2007 with 21 HRs and 50 SBs, but jumpin' Jesus on a pogo stick, do you HONESTLY think he can pull that off again considering that he's never done it before in 8 seasons?

3. Aaron Rowand - San Francisco Giants - Face facts, Aaron Rowand isn't that great of a fantasy player. He's a hell of a guy to have on your REAL baseball team, but stats wise, he's average to subpar. The best thing he ever did for himself was bust his nose open. Now he's playing in San Francisco where good careers go to die. I'm afraid those 27 homers he hit last season to get him up to 43 on the outfielder rankings will probably be more than he hits in the next two seasons.

4. Johnny Damon - New York Yankees - Coming into 2008, Johnny Hero doesn't even have a position solidified. He's penciled in at DH, but so are Giambi and Shelley Duncan. On top of that, Damon's been on a fairly steady decline since joining the Yanks. He may still be a viable fantasy player, but I can't see any reason whatsoever to put him as the 35th best outfielder.

5. Rick Ankiel - St. Louis Cardinals - Who didn't love this story last year? If you didn't love seeing Rick Ankiel come back from being a monumental flop as a pitcher to become a slugging outfielder, you don't love baseball and you should go back to Communist Russia where bear skin hat wear you. But, come on, this is the epitome of shortsightedness. Ranked number 50 among outfielders, people are actually expecting another miracle. Well, I guess there's probably some people out there who won a million dollars in the lottery and wish they had've held out for the 10 million dollar drawing.

Labels: Aaron Rowand, Bobby Abreu, busters, Chris Young, Eric Byrnes, fantasy baseball, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jacque Jones, Jerry Owens, Johnny Damon, Josh Hamilton, Rick Ankiel, sleepers

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Now we find ourselves moving on to the second best collection of sluggers on the field. Less bulky than first basemen, these guys have been known to steal a base or two as well. As a matter of fact, the de facto #1 overall pick (A-Rod, or Gay-Rod, depending on your region) lives on the hot corner. As a position, the third baseman is generally a 5 category player. It's a rarity to see 0 stolen bases, unless there's a chub like Aramis or a hobbled old man like Rolen, but even Rolen'll get you 4 or 5 stolen bases.

So, let's dive right in and pick apart some third basemen:

Sleepers:

1. Josh Fields - Chicago White Sox - If Josh Fields hadn't gotten twice as many at bats as it takes to remain a rookie, he'd be a prime contender for AL R.O.Y. But, alas, he'll just have to be a very good cheap option for us fantasy types. In those 373 at bats last season, Fields belted 23 home runs and 67 RBI. Sure he only had a .244 average, but let me take this moment to remind you that the difference between a .250 hitter and a .300 hitter over the course of 400 at bats is only 20 hits. The chances of a .250 hitter going 2 for 3 in a game aren't that far off from a .300 hitter. If you pay attention to batting average, you're wasting stress on the wrong areas. Focus on things like why people are stupid enough to go on Moment of Truth. Here's Field's projected 2008 numbers: 76/34/97/1/.272

2. Mark Reynolds - Arizona Diamondbacks - For all intents and purposes, Mark Reynolds had a better season last year than Josh Fields. He had less home runs, but the rest of his stats were better. So, why is 26th ranked third baseman Mark Reynolds below Josh Fields on this sleeper list? Because CURRENTLY he is slated to back up Chad Tracy. That should last all of a month, tops, IF it even lasts past spring training. Reynolds' projected 2008 numbers go like this: 90/25/90/0/.279 You know what, why don't we just call Josh Fields and Mark Reynolds co-#1 sleepers. Okay, done.

3. Edwin Encarnacion - Cincinnati Reds - It's been since Marge Schott's poodle died that the Reds fans have had anything to cheer about. But, guess what, it looks like the NL Central's got a Red Scare on their hands. Now don't get me wrong, Dusty will figure out a way to destroy every single young career on this potentially great team, he always does. But, enough commentary, here's the projected 2008 numbers for this 14th ranked third baseman: 75/19/90/9/.290 Sold? Sold.

Busters:

1. Alex Rodriguez - New York Yankees - No, this is not me saying that Alex Rodriguez will not be great this season. He's been great for 12 consecutive seasons. Why stop now? He won't. I just hate when there's a clear cut default #1 overall pick. You feel like you're forced into him, just like last season with Soriano and that didn't pan out either. There's no way he continues last year's pace, obviously. But, if you don't take him at #1, you'll feel silly. I'm just saying don't expect A-Rod to be ranked #1 after this season.

2. Chipper Jones - Atlanta Braves - Now, I'll admit, I've had it in for Chipper for as long as I can remember. Two things that instantly make me cringe about a person: Racoon eye tan lines from wrap around shades and grown men going by the name Chipper. But, there's something else... I'm concerned when I see a 35 year old baseball player have his best season since he was 29. Now, he'll be 36 shortly after Opening Day, and let's face facts, the Braves aren't looking very good this year. I don't see it. But, maybe I've been blinded by the name Chipper.

3. Evan Longoria - Tampa Bay Devil Rays - Wait a second... What list are we on here? Sleepers or busters? If you've followed baseball in the past season, chances are you've been hearing about this kid. He's averaging a $4 auction value, a 16th Round draft selection, and is the 20th ranked third baseman, all without ever having played a major league game. He may not even start the season in the majors this year either. His Double-A numbers are pretty good (21 HRs in 381 ABs) but he strikes out almost as much as Adam Dunn, and let's face it, playing for the Devil Rays in the major leagues is a pretty damn far cry from the Montgomery Biscuits.

Labels: Alex Rodriguez, busters, Chipper Jones, Edwin Encarnacion, Evan Longoria, fantasy baseball, Josh Fields, Mark Reynolds, sleepers, Third Basemen

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When it comes to five tool wunderkinds of the baseball world, they are few and far between in the land of middle infielders. For what ever reason, shortstop has many more tools at your disposal than second base. In my opinion, this factor makes drafting a great second baseman and shortstop early a priority. There's 20-25 top tier outfielders, I'd be happy with any of the top 10 first or third basemen, but when you get past the top 4 or 5 middle infielders, I start getting sweaty palms.

So, why is it a priority to draft one of the few good middle infielders early and a joke to draft one of the few good catchers early? Because the few good middle infielders will get you 20-30 home runs or 50-70 stolen bases. The few good catchers will get you 15-20 home runs and 120 games played. That's it. So, here's some shortstops you may not be aware of and some that you may be TOO aware of:

Sleepers:

1. Jhonny Peralta - Cleveland Indians - For three years in a row Juh-honny has put up very respectable numbers (a 3 Year Average of 84/19/73/2/.273). So, why is it that this guy is ranked #15 among shortstops? He the starting shortstop for a scrappy contender. Is it his dyslexic name? That must be it, because I don't see any other explanation.

2. Felipe Lopez - Washington Nationals - Oh man, has this guy fallen off the charts. One bad start and mediocre finish will do that in the unforgiving world of fantasy rankings. But, face facts, this guy had some weird things going on. In 2005, he blew the eff up with 23 home runs out of nowhere. In 2006, he forgot how to hit the dinger, but suddenly learned how to steal 44 friggin' bases. Then in 2007 he kind of forgot how to do any of it until the end of the season. I'm gonna put it on the table that he regains better form this season.

3. Jason Bartlett - Tampa Bay DEVIL Rays - Now, Bartlett's probably not going to set your roto numbers on fire with his bat. He'll probably get you 5-6 home runs. His worth lies in the fact that he'll get you 20-25 stolen bases and 70-80 runs. As a matter of fact, his projected stats are very similar to Orlando Cabrera's who is ranked 10 spots ahead of Bartlett. The best news is, you could probably hold off on drafting him until the end of the draft and focus on beefing up other spots once the top 4 or 5 shortstops have been drafted.

Busters:

1. Miguel Tejada - Houston Astros - It happens time and time again. A guy who is "allegedly" on steroids (I use "allegedly" because...come on...) goes off the juice and starts getting injured and his play goes down. Guess what happened to the former second most consecutive games played record holder last season? Right! He missed 30 games or so and his production was way down. Then his name shows up in bold print in the Mitchell Report. Factor that in with the fact that he'll be playing half of his games in the 6th worst park to hit in, suddenly he's not looking so hot.

2. Orlando Cabrera - Chicago White Sox - Why this guy is in the Top 10 shortstops, I don't know. As I said a couple of paragraphs up, you can get similar numbers well down the draft board. I know how these prognosticators work, they love to put 100% validity into the previous seasons stats for some reason and ignore a history of mediocrity. I'm a little more cynical than that. I don't see the value here...

3. Khalil Greene - San Diego Padres - Another instance of one great season makes prognosticators only be able to focus on the giant boobs despite the horse face. Khalil nearly doubled up his home run numbers from his previous three seasons (15, 15, 15, 27) last year. Is it a case of coming of age, or was it just dumb luck? Whatever, Greene is a notoriously slow starter and really shouldn't you be less worried about the guys who drop off at the end of the season during the draft? If a guy is notorious for terrible Augusts and Septembers, that great you can trade him off in July after he tears up the league. You can't do a damn thing with a slow starter who will find his way onto the waiver wire by May.

Labels: busters, fantasy baseball, Felipe Lopez, Jason Bartlett, Jhonny Peralta, Khalil Greene, Miguel Tejada, Orlando Cabrera, shortstops, sleepers

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Second Basemen and Shortstops are two of the most difficult positions to find great value in. They're better than catchers in that they play almost every game and their knees actually function well enough to move them, often times with great speed. That being said, a middle infielder's greatest assets are stolen bases and run generating ability.

Keep this in mind when drafting, it may just blow your mind: The average number of home runs hit by the Top 300 position players in the major leagues is 14. The average number of stolen bases by the same is 7. 132 of those 300 players hit 14 or more home runs, almost half of them. But, only 90 stole 7 or more bases. That's less than a third. Only 27 players averaged 20 or more stolen bases over the last 3 seasons, 12 of those were middle infielders.

What does that mean? It means that stolen bases are the most undervalued category in fantasy baseball. When the Top 300 position players in fantasy baseball stole a total of 2256 bases, and the Top 10 base stealers stole 21% of those bases, sounds to me like grabbing a couple of speedsters real quick should be a pretty big priority.

Anyways, I didn't mean to get on my stolen base soapbox again. Here's some sleepers and busters:

Sleepers:

1. Jayson Nix - Colorado Rockies - If I offered you a kid playing in Colorado who could hit 16 home runs and steal 21 bases for you, is that something you'd be interested in? (Thanks, Bob Ryan!) Remember how I waved off that whole concept with Carlos Guillen as two average stat totals don't make someone good? Well, that only applies to positions that aren't directly next to second base. He's currently slated to start at second for the Rocks, and despite never being in a Major League game before, he's already a prime candidate for R.O.Y.

2. Yunel Escobar - Atlanta Braves - Is he a powerhouse? Nah. Is he a speedster? Not really. He'll get you 10-12 HRs and 10-12 SBs this year. He's currently slated to start at shortstop right now, but second base is a thin group, so cut me some slack. The guy qualifies at almost every position in the infield, which is a great asset to have come Mondays and Thursdays when most teams are taking on a day off.

3. Aaron Hill - Toronto Blue Jays - This guy SHOULDN'T be much of a sleeper, but the man who went 87/17/78/4/.291 last season somehow found himself the #14 over ranked second baseman. I'd understand if it looked flukey a la Carlos Pena, but the guy has only been in the league for 3 seasons and his stats have improved every season. What's a guy gotta do to get some love around here?

Busters:

1. Brandon Phillips - Cincinnati Reds - I have never been a believer in Brandon Phillips. He was supposed to be something special early in his career, and he wasn't. Then, he was supposed to be a huge bust, then suddenly he was good. Now, he's supposed to be a top tier second baseman, and I just keep waiting for the punchline. Plus, Dusty Baker has a penchant for destroying young bright careers.

2. Howie Kendrick - Los Angeles Angels - For the past two years, this guy has popped up on sleeper lists everywhere. But, he can't seem to stay healthy. Then, when he is, he's just not panning out to be the next great thing. Factoring his past two seasons' stats into a full 162 game season (P-SHAW!) only comes out with 70/7/53/7/.324 That's not really what I would consider the #9 overall ranked second baseman.

3. Ian Kinsler - Texas Rangers - This second base Sleepers & Busters is tough. Either the players are good, you know they're good, and they'll continue to be good, or they suck, you know they suck, and you'd never draft them anyway. So, I'm going out on a limb to say that Ian Kinsler can't do in 2008 what he did in 2007 to warrant the ranking of 6th best second baseman. What's my basis? Man, have you checked out the Rangers' lineup? Man, it turns out that Robin Ventura was the cousin of God, and here's Nolan Ryan's karmic payback... Good luck with all that.

Labels: Aaron Hill, Brandon Phillips, busters, fantasy baseball, Howie Kendrick, Ian Kinsler, Jayson Nix, second basemen, sleepers, Yunel Escobar

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Now, onward and upward to the powerhouses of fantasy baseball: the first basemen. Historically, when you're looking at an all out slugger, you're looking at a first baseman. Yes, there's sluggers at all the other positions, but at no other position are there ONLY sluggers. So, take that semantics stickler.

In this article, I will go through and call out three bargain bin goodies and three things painted in lead paint with small parts that will almost certainly choke your children and small pets. With no further ado, let's hit the books, shall we?

Sleepers:

1. James Loney - Los Angeles Dodgers - Now, this guy isn't a rookie, he's been around for a couple of seasons. On top of that, the two seasons he's been around for he hasn't done anything superhuman. However, each season his per AB numbers are improving. So much so, that if he plays 162 games this season(he's played 48 & 95 in the two previous seasons), we have him projected out to hit around .310 with 21 HRs and 96 RBI. Those would be some nice numbers from the #15 ranked 1st Baseman.

2. Joey Votto - Cincinnati Reds - The only reason Votto isn't #1 on this list is that he only has 24 major league games under his belt. But, when we factored out his percentages over those 24 games into a 162 game season, the numbers were hot lava. Obviously, you can't expect a guy to hit the same over 6 months that he hit in a month and a half, but just for grins, here's his projected 162 game season projected numbers: 77/28/120/7/.321 Zoinks is right, Shaggy.

3. Daric Barton - Oakland A's - This guy burst on the scene like Prince Fielder at a pancake buffet last year. The guy had 72 ABs in 18 games, and went like this: 16/4/8/1/.347 Now, let's be reasonable. Those numbers projected out over 162 games would give you an unwarranted erection. I won't even show them to you, because they're worthless. No way a Billy Beane slugger gets 144 runs in a season, especially one who's currently riding the pine behind Dan Johnson. But, he's a DEFINITE free agent to watch early on.

Busters:

1. Carlos Pena - Tampa Bay DEVIL Rays - Okay, so let me get this straight, ONE above average season in 7 seasons warrants you to be the #9 overall 1st baseman in the fantasy world? Yeah, he was great for people who hopped on for the ride last season, but if you take last season's 46 HRs out of the picture, he suddenly averages less than 9 HRs a season. Something tells me that people need to pull off their near-sighted spectacles and start looking at things historically.

2. Carlos Guillen - Detroit Tigers - OOO! A first baseman who can hit 18 HRs and steal 18 bases a season! That's like getting excited over a Kia Sephia that also makes applesauce. Who gives a rat's ass? Neither of those stats is anything to write home about in the long run. Plus, face facts, he's a shortstop who now qualifies for first base. Who gets excited about shortstops, other than David Ortiz sharing sweaty man hugs with Miguel Tejada at the Home Run Derby.

3. Todd Helton - Colorado Rockies - Sorry, my oxygen deprived Rockies fans, the Todd Helton you knew is gone. He should still be on your draft board, but that ship is sinking faster than Wesley Snipes' career. Seriously, Wesley...hocking Bowflexes (or whatever body building gadget Chuck Norris and Christie Brinkley also endorse)? I thought Blade was the biggest hunk of cheese you could squeeze from your butt...

Labels: busters, Carlos Guillen, Carlos Pena, Daric Barton, fantasy baseball, first basemen, James Loney, Joey Votto, sleepers, Todd Helton

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