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Jul 30, 2008

Sleepers & Busters: 2008 QB Edition

Out of nowhere, suddenly the quarterback position has become the new running back. Last season three quarterbacks finished with more fantasy points than the first running back (Tom Brady, Tony Romo, and Peyton Manning). Then after LT, three more QBs (Drew Brees, Derek Anderson, and Brett Favre) placed ahead of the #2 scoring RB (Brian Westbrook). Then, take into account that there were 10 QBs in the top 15 fantasy scorers last season, and you've got yourself a revolution!

So, now that you've got to select a QB earlier than ever, it's time to go over some names for folks stuck between drafting Derek Anderson or Joseph Addai (please don't take Anderson over Addai, regardless of what the points tell you to do.) Because this season, you're going to see a rush on quarterbacks during the draft. If you've got an early selection in the first round, by the time it comes back around to you at the end of the 2nd, it's all too likely that you're gonna see Matt Hasselbeck sitting atop the list of remaining QBs. Should you go ahead and grab him to make sure, or should you take Larry Johnson or Braylon Edwards? Well, if you're thinking like I'm thinking, you should keep reading because here's some QBs to target later on.

Sleepers

Jake Delhomme - Carolina Panthers - (ADP: 118.89) Yes, he's getting older. Yes, he's an injury risk. But, if he can stay healthy, he's got a MUCH improved receiver corps with Steve Smith, D.J. Hackett, and Muhsin Muhammad. He's got a badass young running game to take the pressure off of him, and his o-line finds itself in MUCH better condition with the addition of Jeff Otah. What's even better, he's currently averaging around a 10th round selection.

Jason Campbell - Washington Redskins - (ADP: 142.33) He's a butter fingers, no doubt about it. Last year he threw 11 picks and lost 8 fumbles. But, I see Devin Thomas as 2006's Santonio Holmes. That adds depth to an already solid receiving corps. Add to that a very good receiving RB in Clinton Portis, and this season's golden boy TE, Chris Cooley and I'm starting to smell a sleeper pick.

Jay Cutler - Denver Broncos - (ADP: 90.71) Okay, this hurts. I don't like this guy, and in my heart I don't think he's very good. But, damn, if there was ever a scenario for a QB to succeed, it's one mile in the air in Denver. Four VERY serviceable receivers (Brandon Marshall, Keary Colbert, Darrell Jackson, and Brandon Stokely) and two very good TEs (Daniel Graham and Tony Scheffler) make it where he can just lob the ball in the air and SOMEone is going to catch it.

Busters

Tony Romo - Dallas Cowboys - (ADP: 22.25) After a while, all this folding in the clutch has got to wear on a guy. When this specific guy seems to be more worried with being Hollywood than being the Cowboys' quarterback, it should be a snap to break him completely. Take into account that T.O. is 35 this year and that his #2 receiver is Patrick Crayton (Career 34.3 Yards Per Game, 46.5 in 2007) and I'm officially starting the Romo Meltdown Clock...NOW!

Derek Anderson - Cleveland Browns - (ADP: 52.16) Is anyone else thinking we've seen the second coming of Kelly Holcomb with Derek Anderson here? I don't know why, but I can feel it. The guy throws WAY too many INTs to be ranked so high (1.3 per game during his career, 19 last season). Add to the mix, the supremely overrated Donte Stallworth, and I'm really just not feeling the #7 overall rated QB this year.

Marc Bulger - St. Louis Rams - (ADP: 84.87) I've always said, "Never trust a Marc with a 'C'." Nothing good can come from someone who ends their name with a 'C'. In this case, our Marc is in disguise as a formidable QB. But, he's only played 16 games once in 6 seasons. His QB Rating is on a steady decline and INTs are up. He's got some solid targets, including a RB who had the worst season of his short career and then demands more money. But, that's another episode of Sleepers & Busters. I wouldn't be afraid to draft Bulger as a backup just in case, but if he's your starter, you'll live in fear all season long. That's not what I would hope for in the #10 overall rated QB.

Bold Predictions

1. Depending on the situation, either Aaron Rodgers will look MUCH better than anyone expected OR Brett Favre will return and look like 2005 Favre. Regardless of the situation, media outlets will begin touting how they knew this would happen all along.

2. The big name rookie QB to emerge from the pack this season will not be Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco, but someone who we all forgot even got drafted this year. Although, I also think Joe Flacco will be the better QB between he and Matt Ryan.

3. Vince Young falls completely out of favor with the Titans this season, and they begin looking for a new QB in the draft. We will also see his name fall out of the Top 25 quarterbacks next season.

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Apr 25, 2008

Wonderlic Me!

Sitting in living rooms, kitchens, and agent's offices across America at this very moment are around 1000 players who have been poked, prodded, and pranced over the past few months trying to determine whether or not they're draft material. 255 of those 1000 will be deemed worthy tomorrow and Sunday. One test will weigh heavily on the minds of GMs and coaches throughout the NFL: The Wonderlic.

The Wonderlic is a 12-minute, 50-question quiz designed to test the general IQ of potential NFL meat. A perfect score is 50. To date, there has only been one football player to score a 50 on his Wonderlic assessment, Pat McInally of Havard University who went on to become a Pro-Bowl punter.

Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, also from Harvard University, was also believed to have scored a perfect 50. This claim was eventually proven to be false and he was outed as having a still excellent score of 38.

On average, NFL players' Wonderlic scores are as follows:

* Offensive tackle - 26
* Center - 25
* Quarterback - 24
* Guard - 23
* Tight end - 22
* Safety - 19
* Linebacker - 19
* Cornerback - 18
* Wide receiver - 17
* Fullback - 17
* Halfback - 16

On the flip side of Ryan Fitzpatrick, there was also a tale of Vince Young scoring a 6 on his Wonderlic, which would put him right in line with Forrest Gump and Lennie Small. Also like Fitzpatrick, Young's score was also proven to be false and was later told that he scored a still well below QB average 16.

This got me thinking. Ryan Fitzpatrick was drafted by the Rams in 2005, where he ended up playing 4 games when Marc Bulger went down. He went on to throw 4 touchdowns and 8 interceptions with a 58.2 QB rating. He has not seen playing time in a regular season NFL game since.

Vince Young, as you probably know, has been the starting quarterback for the Tennessee Titans for 2 seasons where he has been less than stellar, but still head and shoulders above the performace of the much higher scoring Ryan Fitzpatrick.

So, how much weight SHOULD the Wonderlic test carry in the world of quarterbacks? Let's go through the Wonderlic scores of some of today's quarterbacks and see how they play out:

Drew Henson 42
Alex Smith 40
Eli Manning 39
Brian Griese 39
Charlie Frye 38
Tony Romo 37
Drew Bledsoe 36
Matt Leinart 35
Kellen Clemens 35
Aaron Rodgers 35
Tom Brady 33
Steve Young 33
Joey Harrington 32
Patrick Ramsey 32
Sage Rosenfels 32
J.P. Losman 31
Matt Schaub 31
Phillip Rivers 30
Brady Quinn 29
Rex Grossman 29
Marc Bulger 29
Matt Hasselbeck 29
Troy Aikman 29
John Elway 29
Drew Brees 28
Peyton Manning 28
Kyle Boller 27
Ryan Leaf 27
Jay Cutler 26
Kyle Orton 26
Carson Palmer 26
Akili Smith 26
Ben Roethlisberger 25
Byron Leftwich 25
Chad Pennington 25
JaMarcus Russell 24
David Carr 24
Jason Campbell 23
Tim Couch 22
Trent Dilfer 22
Brett Favre 22
Michael Vick 20
Tarvaris Jackson 19
Bruce Gradkowski 19
Derek Anderson 19
A.J. Feeley 19
Daunte Culpepper 18
Aaron Brooks 17
Vinny Testeverde 17
Vince Young 16
Steve McNair 15
Randall Cunningham 15
Dan Marino 15
Terry Bradshaw 15
David Garrard 14
Donovan McNabb 14
Marcus Vick 11
Jeff George 10
Chris Leak 8

Well, the list begins with one of the all time highest scorers in NFL Wonderlic history, Drew Henson. As you may know, Henson was not only bright, but a two sport...flop. He made appearances with the New York Yankees in 2002 and 2003, compiling 9 ABs with 3 Ks and 1 hit. In 2004 he joined the Cowboys, played 7 games and put together 78 Passing Yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, and 2 sacks.

Heading down the ladder further, we run across other NFL quarterback flops like Alex Smith, Charlie Frye, and Kellen Clemens. However, also amongst those names are players like Tony Romo (37, could be considered a flop, depending on if you're discussing the regular season or the post season. ZING!), Tom Brady (33), and Steve Young (33). And, no, I refuse to acknowledge Eli Manning among the previous names, despite his 39 score. Just because he won a Super Bowl doesn't make him great. Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl as well, where's his fellatio?

As we scroll down the list of names, you see the good mixed in with the bad mixed in with the ugly. It seems haphazard. I had a theory beginning the research for this article that I would find that the players at the top tended to be less successful at the quarterback position than the ones at the bottom due to a tendency of book smart people to overanalyze situations. While this theory wasn't smashed by what I found here, it did morph into something a little different.

From looking over the list, toward the top amongst the QBs who scored 30 and above, we see names like Phillip Rivers, Tom Brady, Matt Leinart, Drew Bledsoe, Eli Manning, and Alex Smith. These are some of the most immobile quarterbacks in the game. They're pocket passers, they get sacked a lot, but they also put together a lot of passing yards. When you get toward the bottom of the list, the guys who scored 20 and below, you've got names like Michael Vick, Tarvaris Jackson, Daunte Culpepper, Aaron Brooks, Vince Young, Steve McNair, Randall Cunningham, David Garrard, Donovan McNabb, and Kordell Stewart. These are all guys who faced with an oncoming defensive attack, they tuck in the ball and take off for whatever they can get.

I hate to use the word primal, but that's almost what we're seeing here. The lower the Wonderlic score, the more primal and emotive the quarterback. The higher the score, the more prone to getting caught overanalyzing the situation rather than just taking action.

So, is it as bad as some would make it out to be to have a low Wonderlic score? No. Clearly not. You just play with more heart than brains, if that statement could be construed as non-condescendingly as possible. There's a lot to be said for playing with heart. Some of the NFL's greatest quarterbacks were well below average on the Wonderlic (Brett Favre, Steve McNair, Dan Marino, Terry Bradshaw, Donovan McNabb) just like some of the biggest flops were well above average.

By the way, Eli Manning scored 11 points higher (39) than Peyton Manning did (28), and I think it's pretty damn obvious who wins that battle.

You can go here to see how you would stand up against the Wonderlic.

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