Okay, last season of all of my ballyhooing and jabbering, I pulled out a 50% accurate, 18% push, and 32% dead wrong record. Pretty good, considering the subject matter. However, where I failed you all was in the Sleepers & Busters article last season, where I pulled a LenDale White sized belly flop picking only 4 of 10 correctly. Nasty.

Well, here I go again. This time I can feel it in my marrow, we're on the right path and if you stand firm behind me, we're going to take this one all the way to Chinatown! You ready? Me too, let do this...

Quarterbacks

Sleeper: Philip Rivers, QB - San Diego Chargers (Avg. Rank: 12.45, Hi: 6, Lo: 17)

With an average ranking of 12.45 and ranked as low as #17 (We were the one's who ranked him #6.) in our quest for player rankings, Philip Rivers is getting treated like the fantasy football equivalent of Pabst Blue Ribbon. In a draft pool of Heinekins, Sam Adams, and Red Stripes sometimes people forget that Pabst is also a tasty cheaper alternative. His 2006 Passer Rating was #6 of all QBs playing in more than 12 games last season. He threw 22 TDs last season (#8 overall) and only 9 picks (#3 among players with 12 or more games). He's got the 2nd best offensive line in football, one of the best receiving running backs in the league, THE best receiving tight end, and a bright young receiver corps. So, dig down in the ice and grab that Pabst later on when your buddies are smug about grabbing temporarily crutchless Donovan McNabb and enjoy the smooth cold flavor.

Buster: Vince Young, QB - Tennessee Titans (Avg. Rank: 8.64, Hi: 7, Lo: 12)

It's a hard lesson to learn, I know. But, take a moment to soak this in: "Running quarterbacks are not as good as advertised." Print that. Yeah, I know, rushing points come every 10-20 yards, while passing points come every 25-50 yards. So, if you have a QB who will rush for between 500-900 yards, hell yeah, right? Wrong. Okay, so he runs. But, where's he going? Most of the time not the end zone. Most QB rushes are midfield scrambles. Running backs are trained to run, quarterbacks are not. A chef that can mix drinks isn't better than a chef who can't because the one who can make drinks is going to do a half-ass job at both because he's busying himself trying to be the whole kitchen. Case in point, Vince Young had a 51.54% completion percentage last season and a 66.7 passer rating. Awful. Okay, so his drink mixing skills were pretty good with a 6.7 Yard Per Rush average, but the cooking at Cafe Vince sucks. And besides, who's he going to throw to? When Brandon Jones is your #1 receiver, you'd better run Vinny. Don't waste your pick.

Bold Statement: Alex Smith will be a Top 10 QB by season's end.

Running Backs

Sleeper: Jerrious Norwood, RB - Atlanta Falcons (Avg. Rank: 37.36. Hi: 31, Lo: 44)

I toiled and toiled over this pick because I had two other guys who would fit neatly into the slot (Brandon Jacobs (Avg. Rank: 24.36) and Marion Barber (Avg. Rank: 24.36)). Any of those 3 are prime sleeper material, as I believe they will all blow up in a major way. As a matter of fact for the past few months, Brandon Jacobs has been in my mind as my pick this year, but seeing Norwood ranked so low and seeing Jacobs at least getting SOME respect skewed my choice at the last minute. Norwood led all running backs with a 6.4 Yards Per Rush average and produced a healthy 8.5 Yards Per Reception average. He's got a great offensive line and a guy in front of him who should step aside at any moment. His only downfall is that Michael Vick doesn't particularly like to let anyone else touch the ball. But, if Vick finds himself bludgeoned with carrots by PETA, I'm sure Joey Harrington wouldn't mind letting ANYone else take the ball from him. I'm not saying he's first half draft material, but in those later rounds when you're drunkenly thinking about taking Wali Lundy or Kevan Barlow, you'd be better off with Norwood.

Buster: Travis Henry, RB - Denver Broncos (Avg. Rank: 13.09, Hi: 8, Lo: 20)

Guys...seriously. We need to talk. There's people out there who think Travis Henry is a Top 10 running back. People in positions to advise. This, my friends, is called lunacy. Yeah, okay, he was pretty good in 2002 and 2003 with Buffalo. Gotcha. But this is 5 years later! He's done nothing but suck up until last season when he became just barely above average. Now people see him in Denver and think he's the 13th best RB ahead of names like Clinton Portis and Edgerrin James? I know Portis and James weren't great last season, but come on! It's possible to not be good under Mike Shannahan. Tatum Bell did it last season. Don't fall for the hype, please. You'll be sorry.

Bold Statement: Larry Johnson, not LaDanian Tomlinson, not Steven Jackson, will be the biggest point scorer in fantasy football this season.

Wide Receivers

Sleeper: Drew Bennett, WR - St. Louis Rams (Avg. Rank: 46.91, Hi: 34, Lo: 63)

This was a tough one as well, because as I dug through the ranks, I kept looking shallow. Randy Moss, Terry Glenn, Andre Johnson (again). Too safe. Dig deeper, David! So, I did...and this is who I found. Last season, Bennett muddled through a long season of Tennessee's inadequacy, a rookie QB with a penchant for running, and a lackluster running game leading to defenses keying in on the WRs (I just noticed I could have easily called this article "Wail On The Titans"). Bennett finds himself in an environment where yards and TDs abound. Since Marc Bulger took over in the middle of 2002, the Rams have had at least 2 (TWO!) players with at least 800 yards receiving (2002: 1302 & 1075, 2003: 1696 & 981, 2004: 1372 & 1292, 2005: 1331 & 801, 2006: 1188, 1098, & 806). Normaly those two players are named Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce, but Isaac Bruce is 35 years old. While Bruce is still slotted as the #2 WR, he's due for a dramatic decrease in looks with a player of Bennett's calibur now in the mix. Rated as he is, you should see him fall to some lower rounds. Don't be afraid to pull the trigger and grab him, he will be a large producer for what he is this season.

Buster: Larry Fitzgerald, WR - Arizona Cardinals (Avg. Rank: 7.27, Hi: 6, Lo: 9)

Now, I'm not saying that Larry Fitzgerald is a bad pick or a bad player. What I'm saying is that he's ranked way too high for the numbers he produces. He averages only 13.6 Yards Per Reception (2006: 13.7 was 48th overall against players with at least 12 games in 2006) and 8 TDs a season (2006: 6 was 7th overall against all WRs). With two other very good WRs in the mix, a RB that gets a decent amount of receptions, and a young QB with a subpar O-Line, I'm not saying he won't warrant a fairly high pick, he just stands a very good chance of disappointing this season.

Bold Statement: Marques Colston will hit the sophomore slump this season.

Tight Ends

Sleeper: Ben Watson, TE - New England Patriots (Avg. Rank: 9.36, Hi: 7, Lo: 13)

Dueling TEs sucks almost as bad as dueling RBs for a fantasy footballer. Almost as bad because TEs suck anyway, but they're a necessary evil. If you split their receptions in half, then it just gets nasty. Fortunately for Dr. Watson, his counterpart, Daniel Graham, jumped ship for Denver in the off season. This leaves Kyle Brady as his main competition, and Kyle Brady is a blocker, not a receiver. Now, with Moss, Stallworth, and Welker new on the scene in New England, this won't leave a WHOLE lot of receptions for Watson. But, he was already a very good tight end option and he just got better.

Buster: Jeremy Shockey, TE - New York Giants (Avg. Rank: 4.73, Hi: 3, Lo: 12)

With the 17th best Yard Per Reception average (11.4) over the past 3 seasons and 30th best in 2006 (9.4), Shockey's only saving grace is when he's near the end zone. Yes, he does have the 2nd best 3 Year Average in TD Receptions (6.7 per season), but TDs aren't everything. Once again, as with Larry Fitzgerald, I'm not saying stay away, I'm just saying the product you're purchasing isn't as good as advertised.

Bold Statement: Alge Crumpler will barely be a Top 10 TE by season's end.

Kickers

Sleeper: Rian Lindell, K - Buffalo Bills (Avg. Rank: 18.33, Hi: 16, Lo: 21)

There's two main things to look at when you look at a kicker: 1)Accuracy 2)The strength of his team's offense. Clearly, you want an accurate kicker. I don't even have to tell you that, but I did anyway. But, almost as importantly, you want a kicker with a team offense that's good enough to get in field goal range, but bad enough to flop when they get there. Lindell's got both. Over the past 3 seasons, Lindell's FGs Made %s are as follows: 85.7%, 82.9%, and 92.0% averaging out to 86.9%. There's only two regular kickers with higher accuracy percentages (Stover and Vinatieri). Plus, with J.P. Losman heading the offense, the 2nd worst offensive line, and an unproven (albeit highly touted) rookie as their starting running back, you have a mix that should get him close to his range. Oh, and did you know that Lindell's 50+ Yard FG Made % is 100% over the past 3 years? Yep, 5 for 5. You know who else has done that that's on the list right now? No one.

Buster: Robbie Gould, K - Chicago Bears (Avg. Rank: 4.11, Hi: 1, Lo: 7)

What did we learn last season about kickers who weren't very good one season and were very good the next? They tend to come back to earth. Right, Neil Rackers? In 2005, Robbie Gould hit only 77.8% of all FGs, then in 2006 he hit 88.9%. He's only played two seasons, how can I judge? Look at his stats, after a super hot start that inevitably earned him the ranking he currently owns, he hit the wall in Week 9. He averaged 11.8 points per game through the first 8 weeks, then, starting at Week 9, 6.7. After hitting 100% through the first 11 weeks, he only hit 67% after that. Plus, on top of all of that, his career longest FG is only 49 yards. He hasn't even attempted a 50+ yet.

Bold Statement: Mike Vanderjagt will return to the NFL this season and become a Top 10 kicker again.

Defenses

Sleeper: Green Bay Packers DST (Avg. Rank: 12.00. Hi: 4, Lo: 16)

Apparently not a lot of people noticed that the Packers turned in one of the finest statistical defensive displays of the season last year coming in 4th in sacks (46), 3rd in INTs (23), and 2nd in DEF TDs (5). Maybe that was because they also ranked 25th in Points Allowed (354) and the team just really sucked all season. But, the fact is that despite the Packers being Favre's team, they have generally been a solid defense year in and year out. This year should be any different. A.J. Hawk has aged a season and should excel, Charles Woodsen is always nasty, and Aaron Kampman (2nd most sacks in the NFL with 15.5) is back in full effect.

Buster: Miami Dolphins DST (Avg. Rank: 6.70, Hi: 5, Lo: 9)

Okay, yes they signed Joey Porter. The Dolphins will be one of the hardest teams in the league to run against between Porter, Zach Thomas, Jayson Taylor, and Keith Traylor. No question. But, last season they had 8 (EIGHT!) INTs, ranking them #31 overall and they did next to nothing to address that fact in the off season. While the rest of the stats are up to snuff, this glaring mistake tells me that they are leaving themselves open to a whole lot of airborne atatcks this season, which will leave Dolphins DST owners a little disappointed. That's why I cycle defenses like a madman, but that's another article.

Bold Statement: The San Diego Chargers will become the #1 defense this season.

Just thought you should know.

Labels: busts, fantasy draft, fantasy football, nfl, predictions, projections, sleepers

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Like a time capsule buried in grandma's flower garden, I have been anxiously awaiting opening this barrel full of monkeys all season long. I'm going to do what no other Fantasy Football site is willing to do. I'm going to review my recommendations from the beginning of the season, and see how they stand up against their present status. I, for one, can appreciate the times that I am proven wrong, because I can use those times to better my judgment for the next time around. Of course, I hope to see more positive recommendations than negative, but I know that I recommended Jake Plummer as the sleeper QB of the season (Whoops!) so, I'm just gonna hold on and hope for the best.

Okay, bend over, RotoDestroyer. Here comes your audit:

So You Want To Win Your Fantasy Football League? (08/14/2006)

1. Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, LaDanian Tomlinson (Prognosis: #1, #2, #3) - Okay, you may or may not believe this, but on early versions of my draft kit, I had the Holy Trinity ranked: #1 LaDanian Tomlinson, #2 Larry Johnson, #3 Shaun Alexander. I folded under the pressure of seeing every other site ranking them Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, LaDanian Tomlinson and eventually changed my ranking. But, it's basically a wash, so, I'm just going to call this faux pas a push and move on.

Result: 0 points

2. Willis McGahee (Prognosis: "...and end up taking Willis McGahee in the first round, and that’s just retarded.") Still a retarded decision. With only 4 TDs this season, and a 2 game injury hiatus, Mr. McGahee is the #25 RB in the NFL today by fantasy standards.

Result: 1 point

3. Peyton Manning (Prognosis: #4 pick overall) Sorting all players by total fantasy points brings Mr. Marketing Boy Toy to #3 overall. Missed by one, damn. But, I was still right.

Result: 1 point

4. Terrell Owens (Prognosis: ""Ha ha! T.O. in the first round! SNAP!” Because everyone will laugh at you as you miss the playoffs") T.O. is ranked as the #4 WR in the NFL right now, but according to my statement, he's not 1st round material. That statement is still true. He's done "well", but not 1st round well, since he is the 32nd ranked fantasy points scorer in the NFL.

Result: 1 point

5. Corey Dillon (Prognosis: "Corey Dillon in the 3rd round.") He's the #22 fantasy points scoring running back, #52 overall. Even in a 16 team league, Corey Dillon doesn't fit the bill as a 3rd Rounder. Swing and a miss, RD!

Result: -1 point

6. Tom Brady/Carson Palmer (Prognosis: "Tom Brady or Carson Palmer...or the like early in the 2nd Round, and that would be a fantastic pick.") Ranked #10 and #8 respectively in overall fantasy points, Carson Palmer averaged a 2.7 round pick and Tom Brady averaged a 3.1 rounder. 2 POINT CONVERSION!

Result: 2 points

7. Jake Plummer/Drew Brees (Prognosis: "Jake Plummer or Drew Brees in the 3rd Round.") Man, I threw a lot of trust Plummer's way this season. He's gonna really screw my results here. But, fortunately in this ill-conceived bit of wisdom, Drew Brees pulled me out of the flames to result in a push.

Result: 0 points

8. Samkon Gado (Prognosis: "you’ll be stuck with Samkon Gado as your #2 back, and that’s not Good Eats…") Duh...

Result: 0 points

9. Derrick Mason (Prognosis: "Derrick Mason’s 5.9 Fantasy Points Per Game in like the 7th or 8th Round.") If you got him in the 7th or 8th round, good for you. He's been decent. Any earlier and...sorry. Ranked 155th overall, and in a 12 team league, the 8th round would end with pick #96. Sorry, RotoDestroyer, technically, you failed.

Result: -1 point

10. Antonio Gates (Prognosis: 4th Rounder) Ranked as the best TE who isn't a technical glitch in Yahoo's system (AHEM...Colston), and ranked #41 overall. Gates would have been just fine as a 4th Round selection.

Result: 1 point

11. Jeremy Shockey/Tony Gonzalez (Prognosis: 5th Rounders) Ranked at #69 and #47 respectively, once again both of these TEs would have fit right in with the other 5th rounders.

Result: 1 point

12. Randy McMichael (Prognosis: "some idiot’s found himself with Randy McMichael in the 5th Round.") Ranked #182 overall, McMichael doesn't even belong on the draft board, much less in the 5th round.

Result: 1 point

13. Laveranues Coles (Prognosis: "Don’t forgo Laveranues Coles for Kevan Barlow.") Matching Jet versus Jet, Coles has outscored Barlow and adds another point for the mighty RotoDestroyer!

Result: 1 point

Sleepers & Busters (08/15/2006)

14. Jake Plummer (Prognosis: Sleeper) Well apparently not. Like I said, I had a lot of faith in him. I still like him, expecially more than the Bumpkin Beatle, Jay Cutler. But, I could never consider Plummer a success this season, even if I was a liar...

Result: -1 point

15. Marc Bulger (Prognosis: Buster) As the #7 QB in fantasy football, once again I've fallen on my face.

Result: -1 point

16. Chester Taylor/Joseph Addai (Prognosis: Sleepers) As #13 and #8 on the list of RBs in fantasy football, I consider this a victorious occasion, nailing not one but TWO sleepers. However, I initially had Lee Suggs 10 minutes before he failed his physical and voided his contract. So, for this crass mistake, I deduct one point from a double-doozie.

Result: 1 point

17. Edgerrin James (Prognosis: Buster) Edge? Edge? Where'd you go? Oh...you fell to #29 on the list of RBs? #99 overall? You averaged being the 8.8 pick overall in fantasy drafts? So, I was right? Hmmm...CHALK IT UP!

Result: 1 point

18. Andre Johnson, Michael Clayton, Javon Walker, Chris Chambers (Prognosis: Sleepers) "There’s several names who could go here: Michael Clayton, Javon Walker, even Chris Chambers. Michael Clayton is not as bad as he was last season. Javon Walker will be back with a vengeance under Shannahan’s rule. Chris Chambers is a sleeper in that, I think he will pull a Steve Smith and suddenly become a Top 3 receiver overnight. But, I still pick Andre Johnson because he was so good for two seasons, and when he crapped the bed last season I see now that he’s been written off down the line, ranked as low as #33. That’s crazy."

Andre Johnson = 1 point
Michael Clayton = -1 point
Javon Walker = 1 point
Chris Chambers = -1 point

I should've just kept my mouth shut and stuck with Andre Johnson, and I'd have a point right now. But, in this case I think the bad knocked the good out of it. Chambers a Top 3 receiver? WHAT?!

Result: 0 points

19. Joey Galloway (Prognosis: Buster) He was placed as high as #11 on the pre-draft list of WRs. I said, "No way!" Now he's ranked #22 on the list of receivers. Not really a great position, but not really a bust, either.

Result: -1 point

20. Zach Hilton (Prognosis: Sleeper) HA HA HA HA HA! Who? HA HA HA HA HA!

Result: -1 point

21. Tony Gonzalez (Prognosis: Buster) Look who's on the rebound! It's Gonzo! Look who's on a slide now, it's RotoDestroyer!

Result: -1 point

22. Mike Vanderjagt (Prognosis: Sleeper) Ugh, I don't even want to talk about it. That's 4 in a row.

Result: -1 point

23. Neil Rackers (Prognosis: Buster) Finally! I was getting ill there for a moment. Rackers was ranked as the #1 kicker on almost every list out there (except RotoDestroyer). As of today, he's the #17 kicker in the league. Phew...

Result: 1 point

How Did I Wind Up With Vinny Testeverde? (08/25/2006)

24. Jon Kitna/Billy Volek (Prognosis: "You somehow wound up with Jon Kitna and Billy Volek as your only QBs. Well, things aren’t as grim as you think.") Okay Kitna hasn't been bad this season, so, no you wouldn't be screwed. But, Billy Volek? Shot who in the what now? Since the jist of this piece of information was that just because you're starting Jon Kitna doesn't mean you're screwed, I'm gonna give it a point. But, Billy Volek?

Result: 1 point

25. Ahman Green, Chester Taylor, LenDale White, Marion Barber (Prognosis: "you wound up with Ahman Green, Chester Taylor, LenDale White, and Marion Barber...you’re a lot better off than you think.") With the exception of LenDale White, this is possibly my best effort yet on this list. Going into the season, all 4 of these guys were question marks at best. At this point we see Ahman Green at #15, Chester Taylor at #13, and Marion Barber at #6. LenDale White is at Denny's somewhere I think. Chalk it up!

Result: 1 point

26. Rudi Johnson (Prognosis: "if you can trade Anquan Boldin for Rudi Johnson, you’d better take it") For some reason, before the season started this seemed like some super informative breaking news. At this point, I look at that statement and say, "Duh!" I was right, but I don't feel right giving myself a point for it.

Result: 0 points

27. Derrick Mason, Eddie Kennison, Ernest Wilford (Prognosis: "for a receiving corps, that’s not all that bad.") Ummm.... Yeah, that actually IS pretty bad in retrospect. Together, the three of them are averaging 572 receiving yards and 3 TDs. That's only 75.2 points, which ranks around 41 or 42 in the list of WRs. So, I hate ending on a bad note, however...

Result: -1 point

FINAL TOTAL: 14 - 9 - 5

Right - 50%
Wrong - 32%
Push - 18%

Labels: draft picks, fantasy draft, fantasy football, fantasy nfl, football

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Ah, the morning after. It was a wonderful night. You ate, you drank, you had a fantastic time. Right now is the moment before you open your eyes when you’re still in the blissful state of grogginess, and suddenly a thought dawns on you. Now’s the time that you roll over to see what you brought home with you last night: the knock-out or the pig? You open your eyes…

There she lays sprawled out on your computer screen like a bag full of rotten potatoes. Oh my God…you brought home the pig!

There’s names like Jon Kitna, Ahman Green, and Koren Robinson…in your starting line up. Oh God! What did you do last night? First off, go take a shower. Wash the stink of a bad draft off of you as quickly as you can and burn your sheets. Let’s not speak of this again.

Now, we’ve got to worry about fixing this situation. An important thing to remember is, just like going to the bar or the nightclub, SOMEone’s got to bring home the pig. And for whatever reason, this time it was you. It happens to everyone at least once. But, what separates the guys who give in to a life of pigs, and the guys who brush themselves off and laugh off the whole mess, lies in what you do next.

More than likely, it’s not as bad as it seems. If you got to participate in the first round, you at least got one good player to work with. More than likely, you got a few. So, we have to focus on the good of the situation first. Let’s look at this position by position:

QB Situation – You somehow wound up with Jon Kitna and Billy Volek as your only QBs. Well, things aren’t as grim as you think. Fortunately, these are both guys with firm grips on the starting job at least for the first few weeks. The other thing that this tells me is that you bulked up other positions while everyone else was grabbing up the QBs, and this is good. So, here’s what you do: Look at the matchups. Jon Kitna and the Lions are facing Seattle in Week 1. Hmmm…Seattle’s got a pretty solid D. Ah, but Volek and the Titans are playing the Jets in Week 1! Score! The Jets have one of the lowest rated defenses in the league. So, you start Volek against the Jets in Week 1 and keep a CLOSE eye on the waiver wire. Did Charlie Frye throw for 400 yards in Week 1? Of course it would be against the Saints, but still 400 yards could mean something big regardless of who it’s against. So, what I’m saying is play the matchups with what you’ve got and keep your eyes on the free agent wire and be ready to pull the trigger the second a free agent shows signs of promise. You may have to hold out for two or three weeks before one of the free agents begins to really stand out, but one will. They always do. The important thing is, YOU have to be the one who grabs him up.

RB Situation – So, you beefed up on WRs and you wound up with Ahman Green, Chester Taylor, LenDale White, and Marion Barber. First off, if you have a solid top tier QB in conjunction with this group of miscreants, then you’re a lot better off than you think. If you’re sitting on Ahman Green and Chester Taylor with Jon Kitna as your starting QB, you’ve got trouble. The difference between this RB situation and the QB situation is that of these four RBs, only two of them are clear cut starters: Ahman Green and Chester Taylor. Now, on the bright side, let’s not forget that before last season Ahman Green was an unquestioned first rounder. He’s an injury risk now, sure. But, he’s always been. So, if he’s what you got…you could have worse. On top of that, while Chester Taylor won’t get you LaDanian Tomlinson style stats, he’s certainly no slouch. The biggest problem, however, with not having a couple of very good RBs is that there’s a 99% chance that there are NO good or even decent RBs left on the free agent wire as opposed to QBs where you can find 2-4 starting QBs at any time. So, here’s what you do. Stick with Ahman and Chester. You’re not going to get into first place with a tandem like that, but with careful planning you can work your way out of the jam. This is more of a situation for trades, than free agency pick ups. So, wait it out a few weeks, obviously, if any RBs on the free agent wire show promise, grab them. But, more than likely you’ll see some of your WRs show big numbers. I’d hope that if you shafted yourself out of starting RBs this badly, you at least have some wicked WRs. So, what you want to do is, after someone like Anquan Boldin has a great game in Week 1 against San Fran, work for the week trying to get someone to trade one of their RBs for Anquan straight up. But, Anquan is your only great WR? Don’t worry about it (well maybe you should…what exactly were you doing while the draft was going on?), great RBs score almost twice what great WRs score, good RBs score about the same. For instance, Kevin Jones and Anquan Boldin score about the same amount of points each game. So, if you can trade Anquan Boldin for Rudi Johnson, you’d better take it and go grab one of the WRs on the free agent wire.

WR Situation – So, you’re staring in the face of a WR corps that consists of Derrick Mason, Eddie Kennison, and Ernest Wilford. Let me start by saying, if your receiving corps looks like this, you’d better have a damned good QB and RB line up, or else you should leave your home address with our receptionist so we can have someone come out give you a wedgie. Secondly, for a receiving corps, that’s not all that bad. This is probably the best situation you could be in, actually, because it will give you the longest period of time to rectify the situation. Fortunately, this is also the EASIEST situation to rectify. Every year there’s four or five WRs who start out on the free agent wire who become viable WR solutions within a few weeks. Case in point: Terry Glenn, Nate Burleson, Lee Evans, Donte Stallworth, Drew Bennett, and blah blah blah… So, if your WR corps is your biggest nightmare, chin up, Chrissy, there’s starving people in Ethiopia.

TE, K, DEF Situation – If you ran into this situation of your own volition, then you make bunnies cry. If you ran into this situation because you let Yahoo do your draft for you, reevaluate your life. Is your honeymoon REALLY more important than your fantasy football draft? Of course not. According to statistics, it’s not like you won’t have a chance for another one, right? As a matter of fact, attending your fantasy draft COULD even expedite that situation. Regardless, you now find yourself staring at two TEs, two Ks, and two DEFs. The solution is so simple, you don’t even need my help. Drop the worst one at each position. Do not carry two of any of these guys. It’s wasted space, if for no other reason than you could be holding onto someone who another manager is starting, were it not for your insatiable need for both Dallas Clark AND Jermaine Wiggins to be on your team. So, get to dropping this extra weight before you sink your ship at the boat launch.

So, you see, no team is beyond repair in this crazy addiction we call Fantasy Football. The hardest part, sometimes, is knowing that your team sucks. It’s kind of like how ugly people don’t always know they’re ugly. Just like your children, every one thinks their team is the best. For the health of your wager, do yourself a favor and take a step back and look at it from the perspective of your buddies. That team you brought home with you last night is a pig. Rectify the situation, or you might as well go ahead and name your team “The Moped” if you know what I mean.

Labels: fantasy draft, fantasy football, fantasy nfl, football, football draft, free agency

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There’s a fine line between respect and rejection in the world of Fantasy Football. Sometimes those can’t miss players not only miss, they bring you down with them. Ahman Green, anyone? Sometimes a final round throw away pick makes you the talk of the league, Willie Parker style. Here’s a look into how to avoid the rest of the league laughing as you sheepishly drop your #1 overall pick onto the waiver wire in Week 5.

Quarterbacks:

Sleeper – Jake Plummer – DEN – Anyone remember Jon Kitna’s 2003 and 2004 seasons? What about Drew Brees circa 2004 and 2005? What’s the similarity here? Right, they were both mediocre to lousy QBs who, when faced with their team spending a Top 5 Draft Pick on their replacement, decided to step it up a few hundred notches. Guess what happened to Jake Plummer this season? The Broncos drafted lauded rookie Jay Cutler to learn the system. Plummer is due a new contract at the end of the season with SOMEone, and he might like to prove to them that he’s worth the money. All signs point to a big season from the most underrated QB in the NFL.

Buster – Marc Bulger – STL – You know I should say Aaron Brooks, but you would’ve had to, at one point, actually been good to be considered a bust. Why Marc Bulger? Well, with injuries piling up like chicken buckets outside of John Madden’s bus, Marc Bulger has at least a 4:1 shot of not missing a game or two, but I’d play the numbers and bet that he misses more than that. Plus, with an aging receiver corps and a decimated offensive line, what exactly makes you think he’s worth a high draft pick? Don’t do it.

Running Backs:

Sleeper – Lee Suggs – NYJ – This spot could have been held by Chester Taylor or Joseph Addai, but I think most of you know that Chester Taylor will do very well in Minnesota, and Jospeh Addai still isn’t the starter yet. So, I pick Lee Suggs because he probably wasn’t even on anyone’s radar until a couple of days ago when he was brought to New York. Lee Suggs should take over for ailing Curtis Martin when he is forced into retirement by injuries before the preseason is over. Let’s not forget that he only had 8 rushes last season, but let’s also not forget that he averaged 4.5 yards per carry the previous two seasons when he got 56 and 199 carries respectively. He’s young, he has the talent, and now he’s all but got a starting job with a decent team. I’m not saying Suggs is 1st Round material, but if he was there in the 5th Round, you’d better believe I’d take him. ***EDIT*** Ha ha! The RotoDestroyer Jinx! Only moments after posting this article, Lee Suggs failed his physical and voided the trade to New York. So, let's not call him a sleeper anymore, but there's still Chester Taylor and Joseph Addai to look at.

Buster – Edgerrin James – ARI – Everything is wrong for Edge this season. Now, I love Edgerrin. He’s a great player. But, let’s look at what happened. He went from the best offense in the NFL to one of the flakiest. He went from one of the best offensive lines to one of the three worst. His present offense is led by two of the best wide receivers in the league. Gonna be real hard to spread the ball around between Anquan, Fitzy, and Edge. His quarterback will either be an old man teetering on the brink of wasting away or an unproven Paris Hilton boy toy rookie. Plus, PLUS, he’s got his contract now, so there's no reason to go overboard. My prediction for Edge this season is he starts off slow, picks up steam toward midseason, then is injured when one of his doofus linemen let a linebacker through and he doesn’t play again this season as the Cardinals once again miss the playoffs.

Wide Receivers:

Sleeper – Andre Johnson – TEX – There’s several names who could go here: Michael Clayton, Javon Walker, even Chris Chambers. Michael Clayton is not as bad as he was last season. Javon Walker will be back with a vengeance under Shannahan’s rule. Chris Chambers is a sleeper in that, I think he will pull a Steve Smith and suddenly become a Top 3 receiver overnight. But, I still pick Andre Johnson because he was so good for two seasons, and when he crapped the bed last season I see now that he’s been written off down the line, ranked as low as #33. That’s crazy. The man’s a stud and with Eric Moulds coming to town for mentorship and to take the defensive pressure off of him, that adds up to sleeper material of the best kind.

Buster – Joey Galloway – TB – People still have this guy ranked as high as #11. Uh, guys, he’s 35 years old. That’s just a year younger than Brett Favre. Yeah, he was great last season, surprisingly so. But, honestly…#11? That’s just crazy. Let him go. Chris Simms is still finding his niche, and he’s surrounded by other younger talented receivers. When it comes your turn and you see Galloway staring you in the face, turn and run. There is no way he can live up to the hype.

Tight Ends:

Sleeper – Zach Hilton – NO – Now a sleeper at the tight end position is still just a tight end, so don’t get TOO excited and do something crazy. That being said, do you guys remember late last season after the Saints bye week when Zach Hilton started racking up pretty impressive games? Don’t worry, a LOT of people didn’t notice. But, I did. Do you guys remember who Brees’ last tight end was? Some guy named Gates. They had pretty good chemistry, that Gates fellas made a decent name for himself being thrown to by Brees. Hilton’s got the potential, he’s got the quarterback…but he IS still a Saint, and that means all guarantees are null and void. But, if I followed my strategy and still don’t have a TE in the 12th or 13th Round, I’d be more than happy to draft Zach Hilton. I expect big things out of him this season, although big things for a tight end is like owning the World’s Largest Weiner Dog.

Buster – Tony Gonzalez – KC – It pains me to put his name up here, but pickings are slim when you don’t expect much from the position as a whole. Why did I pick on Gonzo? Well, a few reasons. He’s been on a downward slide for the past three seasons, dropping about half a yard per reception each season. Trent Green is no spring chicken either, so there’s that. I’m not saying avoid Gonzo, I’m not saying he’s not worth having on your team. I’m just saying, you may think twice about drafting him as early as you did last season or the year before, because I just don’t see him producing like the Gonzo of old.

Kickers:

Sleeper – Mike Vanderjagt – DAL – Isn’t THAT a shame when the most accurate kicker in the history of the NFL is now a sleeper instead of just a sure thing. For one reason or another, he dropped a long way on a lot of people’s lists, falling as far as #7. That’s just crazy. Crazy? That’s just criminal. Look at the facts, he’s still the most accurate kicker in the league, he’s playing under a partial dome for half of his games, which means cross winds will be minimal to none. He’s playing for one of those offenses you love to see for a kicker, where they’re solid, but not quite good enough to score on every possession. They’ll drive down the field, but they’ll be putting away a lot of field goals when Julius Jones can’t break through the hole, or a lumbering Bledsoe hits the deck just shy of the yellow line.

Buster – Neil Rackers – ARI – Huh? Where did this guy pop into the #1 slot from? He’s ranked #1 all over town. Let’s look at his FG Accuracy over the past three seasons: 75.0%, 75.9%, 95.2%. OH, I get it now. The old Fluke Year Syndrome. People see on unstoppable season where he nails 40 of 42 and suddenly the proven studs take a back seat to Johnny Come Lately. Hell, Billy Cundiff out kicked Rackers in 2003 and 2004. In fact he was only better than 7 kickers in 2003, and only 5 in 2004. Now, I’m not saying that we should really even be worrying about kickers this much, because they’re really all the same. But, I am saying that Neil Rackers doesn’t belong in the #1 spot, and honestly he probably doesn’t even belong in the Top 5. So, don’t waste your pick on a fluke, just laugh into your beer when some moron drafts him in the 8th Round.

Labels: busts, fantasy draft, fantasy football, nfl, sleepers

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Well, here we are once again, those two weeks of your life where you are now the most knowledgeable person on the face of the planet when it comes to Fantasy Football. If you’re reading this now and thinking, “Great! Where was this article LAST week?” then keep read this article for next year, because the next sentence will give you great insight into Fantasy Football. Never ever draft before the second half of August. The week before the season starts is ideal, but the third week in August will do fine as well. People who draft in July and early August are playing Russian Roulette. How do you think Clinton Portis owners feel right now? They wish THEY were drafting this weekend…

So, there’s your first little tidbit of knowledge. If you’ve already drafted this season, then you have room to improve. Now, for those of you who have been chewing through your pencils, waiting on the end of August for your draft like a good boy or girl, I’ve got some strategizin’ for you! For uniformity sake, I’m going to use Yahoo! standard format as the scoring configuration, you can figure it out from there.

The First Round – Okay, here it is, the first round, and what do you do? WHAT DO YOU DO?! If you have the first pick, well I hate the first pick, but you have to go with Larry Johnson. His projected numbers are sick. So, that’s just it. With the second and third pick, you’ve got either Shawn Alexander or LaDanian Tomlinson. Which ever one is gone when your pick comes up, take the other one.. You can’t lose. Now that the obvious is out of the way, what about the rest of you? You’ve got to take an RB, right? Not so fast, wacky. People get lost in the run on first round RBs sometimes and end up taking Willis McGahee in the first round, and that’s just retarded. If there’s anything we learned last season it’s that RBs are going to committees more and more, whereas QBs are the guys who play every down.

Let’s look at this as well, in a standard Yahoo Scoring league, the Top 10 RBs ranked average a total of 9.3 Fantasy Points Per Game. The Top 10 QBs average a total of 12.9 Fantasy Points Per Game. So, why is it so important to grab one of the holy trinity of RBs? Because the Top 3 average 12.47 Fantasy Points Per Game, and the other 7 average 7.94. Kind of a large drop off…

The Top 3 QBs average 14.3, while the other 7 average 12.4. Not much difference there. So, now you understand why you should take the holy trinity and then Peyton Manning and then move on to the best available player.

Does that include WRs? Please, not in the first round. Unless you’re in a Points Per Reception league, wide receivers aren’t all they’re cracked up to be. The Top 10 average 7.7 Fantasy Points Per Game and 11 through 30 average 5.5 Fantasy Points Per Game. This means that a wide receiver is a wide receiver is a wide receiver. So, don’t be the guy who says, “Ha ha! T.O. in the first round! SNAP!” Because everyone will laugh at you as you miss the playoffs with a shoddy RB corps or Byron Leftwich as your starting QB.

The Second Round – Now is where you have a decision to make. What did you take last round? If you took a QB, then these next two rounds MUST be focused on RBs. Even if that means taking Corey Dillon in the 3rd round. Because you have to find two solid RBs that will play at least the majority of each game, and there probably aren’t many of them left.

If you took a RB in the first round, then you get the choice of QB or RB. You should be able to get Tom Brady or Carson Palmer (assuming he’s all better) or the like early in the 2nd Round, and that would be a fantastic pick. But, the run on RBs is not finished. People LOVE to get their two starting RBs in the first two rounds, and while it’s not always the best strategy, it IS a pain in the ass for everyone else and it forces you to draft a RB before you were ready.

So, if you took an RB in the first round and Brady is available, take him. If the Top 3 QBs are gone by your pick, you’d be better off taking your second RB and grabbing a QB like Jake Plummer or Drew Brees in the 3rd Round.

Can you draft a WR yet? I wouldn’t. But the temptation to grab a Top 3 WR at this pick can be tough. Wait it out until the 3rd round, or sometimes you’d even be surprised who’s left at the 4th Round.

The Third Round – Now you should either have your two starting RBs or a great RB and QB. If you have two RBs, you should probably draft a QB now. However, if you have an RB and a QB, you MUST draft an RB now. If you don’t take your second RB now, you’ll be stuck with Samkon Gado as your #2 back, and that’s not Good Eats…

Can you draft a WR yet? Yeah, go ahead if you feel nasty. But, only if you took care of your two RBs. At this point, though, if you skip out on a QB, you might as well wait until the 5th Round for a QB, because they’ll all be about the same from this point on. But, I still don’t recommend it. The Top 25 QBs average 11.1 Fantasy Points Per Game, the Top 25 WRs only average 6.5 Fantasy Points Per Game. That’s a big difference. For instance, did you realize that Randy Moss averages about 8.8 Fantasy Points Per Game over the past 3 seasons. You know which QB has averaged 8.1 Fantasy Points Per Game? Joey Harrington. YEP! Joey Harrington. So, who are you going to pick? Especially when you can get Derrick Mason’s 5.9 Fantasy Points Per Game in like the 7th or 8th Round.

The Fourth Round – If you were me, you’d have a QB and two RBs now, an early stronghold on the championship, and a Pabst buzz. Now’s the time to draft a WR. Go ahead. It’s time…unless… Is Antonio Gates still out there? Now wouldn’t be that bad of a time to grab him. I know, I know… He only averages 6.0 Fantasy Points Per Game, but do you know what Shockey (the overall #2 TE ranked) averages? 4.9. And it only goes down from there (sans Tony Gonzalez, who is getting older and I would recommend in the 5th, but not in the 4th). Number 6 on the TE list averages 3.8. After Gates, Shockey, and Gonzo are gone, just wait until the 10th, 11th, or even 12th Round for a TE, because there’s no point. The Top 5 TEs average 5.0 Fantasy Points Per Game, and the next 10 average 2.8. 2.8!

It’s all about value. Gates is worth almost double what number 6 on the list is. The WRs that will be left on the list will just about all be worth the same. If you can get Gates now, grab him. If you can’t, go WR all day long.

The Fifth Round – Go WR again, my boy! However, if Gonzo or Shockey are calling your name too loudly, no one will really laugh at you. But, here’s the danger that you’ll see about this time: The Dreaded TE Run! Do not get sucked under by this wave. Gates will go, then someone will draft Gonzo, then someone will draft Shockey back to back to back. Oh no! All the TEs will be gone soon! Suddenly, some idiot’s found himself with Randy McMichael in the 5th Round. Laugh at that guy, and make sure his money is safely stowed away.

The bottom line, as I said before, is if Gates, Gonzo, and Shockey are gone, just forget about TE, they’re actually the most worthless position on your team. If they’re gone, go WR all day long….unless… Unless, of course, somehow someone like Cedric Benson or Jospeh Addai has slipped through the cracks. It is perfectly acceptable to go ahead and draft a bench RB before your starting WR corps is complete. But, only if it’s a can’t pass type of RB. Don’t forgo Laveranues Coles for Kevan Barlow. It’s all about who’s the best value you for your pick, and that’s where the VBD that we’ve got in our draft kit comes in handy. <- Plug!

The Rest – Well, the most important rounds are past you now. Now you can start focusing on your beer a little closer, order some wings, whatever. A few more tidbits on what to focus on are: here’s your last three rounds. K, TE, DEF. I don’t care what order you take them in, but do not take a DEF or a K before the last three rounds. There’s no point. Adam Vinatieri averages 7.8 Fantasy Points Per Game, Billy Cundiff averages 6.5. The Chicago Bears Defense averages 8.2 Fantasy Points Per Game, the San Francisco 49ers average 6.8. And if you were smart you would cycle your defensive units all season long and play the matchups instead of sticking with someone like Chicago all season long, regardless of who they play.

Which brings me to another point, do not draft more than one K, TE, or DEF. There are so many other point earners out there than Jermaine Wiggins’ 2.3 Fantasy Points Per Game. If you double up on any of those positions I will be disappointed in you, and you don’t want to hurt MY feelings do you? No way!

ALSO! There is no shame in taking someone just because you know your buddy wants them. Say you already have 4 RBs toward the end of the draft and you see Jospeh Addai sitting there, and your buddy with the inside out Edgerrin James Colts jersey is sitting there with wing sauce all over his goofy grin waiting on you to pick... grab Addai! This does two things, Addai will be a great RB, so it solidifies your RB corps and gives you potential trade bait, and it REALLY pisses off your buddy, which is why you’re buddies in the first place, right?

So, use your brain when you pick. Don’t be loyal to your favorite team. Don’t follow a strict regimen when picking, just get the best value for your pick and you will win your championship and the heart of Bob in accounting who’s always thought you were just a little TOO interesting…

Good luck to my friends, and stomach flu to my opponents!

Labels: fantasy draft, fantasy football, football, football draft

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