So, here we are again. The day that makes Vidal Sassoon their commissions as interns spend weeks slathering on hair gel and industrial grade sealants to Kiper's hair helmet in preperation for today. I have cracked open a bottle on Absinthe that I got from a friend for Christmas. The Green Fairy is what they call it in France. I call it some licorice smelling anti-freeze. It tastes as bad as it smells. But, it was a gift, and it was the drink of such dignitaries as Edgar Allen Poe, Vincent Van Gogh, and Oscar Wilde. So, prepare yourselves for some poetic, esoteric, drunken masterwork right here... TODAY!

Plus, if the absinthe doesn't work, I've got a 12 pack of High Life to fall back on. Here we go, here comes Chris "Deux Deux Deux" Berman.

Side note: There's been a little noise about moving the draft amongst other cities every year. I hope they don't Jets fans are some of the most photogenic degenerates in the world.

#1 Pick: Miami Dolphins - Jake Long - OT, Michigan: Is anyone else getting the feeling that we're seeing another Robert Gallery here? The Dolphins need help in the O-Line, and Jake Long is very good and all.... I just don't see him being the dominant force that the Dolphins do. But, that could very well be why I'm sitting in a La-Z-Boy pretending I'm waxing philosophical behind a keyboard and not making $57 million dollar decisions.

Side note: I hate the fact that I've known the first two picks since this morning. It's like knowing the final score before you watch the game.

Side note: Chris Young, Steve? Ha ha ha! Tired of your own sissy kids? Steve Young just had a jealous slip and called Chris Long, Chris Young.

Side note: This absinthe is just awful. I'd better start hallucinating soon like they say you're supposed to.

Side note: That damn Mrs. Long. Turn off your phone and stop scaring the talent!

#2 Pick: St. Louis Rams - Chris Long - DE, Virginia - I hate the Raiders, but I also really hate THIS for the Raiders. He should have fallen to them to continue legacy. But, between he and Adam Carriker they should make some wicked stops, but if their offense is going to continue playing like a bunch of hobbled old men, it's gonna be a long year.

Side note: Does anyone's mics work or are they just ignoring Deux Deux Deux? He keeps talking and they keep looking at their twiddling thumbs...

Side note: To start a new Rachel Nichols? One is enough, unless you set them off in a cage match and let them peck each others eyes out with their noses.

Side note: As bad as this shit tastes, I'm already a little drunk...

#3 Pick: Atlanta Falcons - Matt Ryan - QB, Boston College - I know that everyone loves to talk about what a franchise quarterback Matt Ryan is. He's going to make everyone forget Michael Vick! He's going to take the Falcons all the way! He's going to outlaw fat girls wearing "Sexy Princess" t-shirts! Quarterbacks just don't come in and rule the world. Whatever. People LOVE getting excited about high pick QBs, but the only thing they love more is ragging on them when they don't pan out. That being said, I'm not nearly as excited about him as everyone else.

Side note: I really hate Corona commercials. I don't buy it BECAUSE if their commercials, well, that and it tastes like overpriced Miller Lite.

#4 Pick: Oakland Raiders - Darren McFadden - RB, Arkansas - Are the Jets faithful cheering? Sounds to me like the Raiders have some copycatting in the works this season with a Fargas/McFadden combo. They've got a relatively young dark horse going on here. I think it might be time to start worrying about the Raiders.

Side note: McFadden's mom is a recovering crack addict?! Ummmm...she looks a little wasted right now. And I know wasted.

Side note: I HATE that the first 5 picks have almost been predetermined. We knew WHO they were going to be, just not which order. So, now we won't get any great Aaron Rodgers, Matt Leinart, Brady Quinn "Poor thing" drama this year. That is unless Dorsey doesn't go to the Chiefs, who just traded the #1 defensive end in the NFL. So, they just MIGHT be looking to replace him.

Side note: Wendi Nix? Is that the fat chick that Johnny Drama ended up getting rim jobbed by? Looks like it...

Side note: OH MY GOD! Look at that effing watch on Dorsey's wrist! How does he hold it up?

#5 Pick: Kansas City Chiefs - Glenn Dorsey - DT, LSU: Okay, so he hasn't missed a game in college. But, as badass as he is, he is a major injury risk. A RISK, mind you, not a liability. He's worth the gamble. Good for them. But, now the geen room is empty. I'm sad about that.

Side note: Happy as all outdoors!

Side note: J-E-T-S! Jets! Jets! Jets!

Side note: We still have Vernon Gholston in the green room! Drop drop drop!!! I want to hear about the triumph of the spirit of this brave young man for waiting an extra 20 minutes to be a millionaire!

Side note: I want to hang out with that bald Jets fan in the stands. He looks like he knows where we could find the truly kick ass high school parties!

#6 Pick: New York Jets - Vernon Gholston - DE, Ohio State - I think Vernon Gholston is a frightening badass on par with the Rock Eater in Neverending Story. Did I just bring up ROck Eater? Wow... I don't care about people saying he's TOO muscular and not athletic enough. Forget that. Gholston will destroy...

Side note: Goddammit! These 1984 style Under Armour commercials have GOT TO GO! CAN...YOU...DIG IT!!!???

Side note: Prediction: Iron Man will suck ass. Over/Under: A McDonald's Cheeseburger.

Side note: Even with Goodell's new streamlined draft. I'm drunker than I have been before at this time. I better move on to beer. Once again, my wife is pure gold. I said, "I've got to live blog the Draft while I get drunk." ad she said, "I'll take the kids to your mom's for a few hours." GOLD!!!

Side note: The Patriots trade Pick #7 to the Saints

Pick #7: New Orleans Saints - Sedrick Ellis - DT, USC - The Saints are out of control! They are trying to get to the Super Bowl TO-day! Look at Ellis' picture, he looks like someone just said, "Sedrick, I think Billy Jean was WAY better than Thriller." The cameraman did not live through the shoot. I hate this pick, but only because I hate the Saints.

Side note: The Ravens trade Pick #8 to the Jaguars

Side note: I really am sensing some animosity between the rest of the crew and Chris Berman.

Side note: FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT! Kiper versus Berman! Come over the desk!

Pick #8: Jacksonville Jaguars - Derrick Harvey - DE, Florida - OOOO!!! Berman just said, "We say a reach, but, uh, you know, that's just on YOUR BOARD, MEL!" Ha ha ha ha! I don't know about this guy, but Berman just cracked me up with that!

Side note: Hmmm.... You think Keith Rivers might be a Bengal?

Side note: I'm onto the High Life now. Beer #1 coming up after this pick.

Pick #9: Cincinnati Bengals - Keith Rivers - OLB, USC - Wow, that was the quietest reception ever for a pick. Crickets everywhere. Keith Rivers is a bad ass. A classy guy, but a classy guy who will eat your soul. You know what I mean? It's a shame that he's going to the Bengals. I mean Marvin Lewis should have a killer defense, but ever year, it's just mediocrity. I wish for better for Keith Rivers, because he's a bad mutha.

Side note: Adam Sandler.... I pretend that he died after Happy Gilmore. It keeps me happy.

Side note: Vented Coors Light? there's an extra indention on the mouth of the can. Is that really ad worthy? I drank one last night, my mind was not blown. I didn't even notice until I looked down and said, "Indention?!"

#10 Pick - New England Patriots - Jerod Mayo - ILB, Tennessee - New England just filled Teddy Bruschi's position for later on. Beautiful move on their part. Forget the videotaping shit. The Patriots are just amazing, and they just got better. I love this pick. What are they supposed to do? Draft a QB? A WR? Well played.

Side note: Did Berman just say, "Hold the Mayo"? Pollack KILL!!!!

Side note: I just peed off of my deck. If you don't have a deck, I suggest you should build one. I have one that angles off of a hill, so if I angle my stream properly, I can get maybe 15-20 feet off the ground. It's fantastic.

#11 Pick - Buffalo Bills - Leodis McKelvin - CB, Troy - Ha ha ha! The lone Bills fans in the audience didn't like that pick. But, he should quit being a dumb ass because as much as I hate talking about defensive backs during this, I have done my homework a little more and McKelvin comes from Alabama. McKelvin is badass. Some scout was quoted on the radio the other day as saying, "If McKelvin played for USC or Ohio State, he'd be a top 5 pick."

Side note: Thank God for beer. Fucking Poe and Van Gogh were suckers for drinking that shit. And I am not having ANY hallucinations, but I'll be damned if this isn't the most poetic prose ever transcribed onto a computer screen.

#12 Pick - Denver Broncos - Ryan Clady - OT, Boise State - I love this pick. As great as the Broncos make their running backs (minus Travis Henry) they do great things for their QBs, too. I think he'll protect Cutlers ass, but for what? Cutler will still eff it up. Did I mention I think that Cutler isn't what he's cracked up to be?

Side note: Haii, I'm Sal Pow-lan-toe-nio. My vocal chords run directly through my nose. Wah wah wah wah...

Pick #13 - Carolina Panthers - Johnathan Stewart - RB, Oregon - Need a committee, take a committee. DeAngelo Williams high fived everyone when DeShaun Foster left now he's gonna have to call a carpenter to fix the hole in the floor that his jaw just left. Stewart's incredible if he can stay healthy. I said that Adrian Peterson probably couldn't stay healthy last season, my shoe tasted incredible, so now I'm gonna just leave it at Stewart's an incredible talent.

Side note: Don't you dare call my wife Nancy. It's Mrs. Barber, you punk! Are you sleeping wi th my wife?!!! GET OUT OF MY HOUSE!!! Man, I'm drunk...

Side note: Aaron's 312? What, does Rent-To-Own not afford you a full 500? "Sorry, if people just owned more than we rent we could probably afford like 415, maybe 425... But, for now we can only give you 312..."

Side note: Thank God Jaworski just showed up, I was running low on goobers to rag on.

Side note: Seattle Seahawks Key Loss: Josh Brown. I love that. Shaun Alexander is probably not as fond of it as I am.

Side note: Rex grossman is as late a bloomer as Bill Haverchuck.

Pick #14: Chicago bears - Chris Williams - OT, Vanderbilt - Yeah, that's what you needed, Chicago. Someone to protect your shitty QB and your crybaby RB. Hold on... What's that sound? Oh, that must be Bears fans organizing a riot. Williams is good, but possibly not the Bears first priority. I say possibly being polite.

Side note: The best WR is still available. Matt Millen is licking his chops.

Side note: The Lions traded the #15 pick to the the Chiefs

Pick #15: Kansas City Chiefs - Branden Albert - G, Virgina - Someone wake Branden up. He looks like a good pick. If they can't get anyone to replace Brody Croyle, might as well pick up someone to keep people from killing him. Although, if he did get killed they'd have to replace him which could be the best move of the offseason.

Pick #16: Arizona Cardinals - Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie - CB, Tennessee State - Why do I know so much about damn DBs these days? Cromartie is badass. Once again, a small school guy who is good enough to play at big levels. My only question is how will they fit his name on the jersey?

Side note: I'm not a fan of the new streamlined format, Goodell. I don't have time to rip on stupid things.

Pick #17: Detroit Lions - Gosder Cherilus - OT, Boston College - Who? Ha ha ha! Way to avoid Mendenhall, Millen! Jew so CRAZY, Millen! Who's he blocking for? Kitna? Nameless running back #1?

Side note: Looks like Flacco's gonna be the next Grbac and Dilfer.

Side note: Is it just me or is this the least interesting draft in a while? Berman should take off his shirt. What?

Side note: The Texans trade pick #18 to the Ravens.

Pick #18: Baltimore Ravens - Joe Flacco - QB, Delaware - He's the next Ben Roethlisberger. Gigantic and solid. I like him a lot. Way better than I like Matt Ryan. Great job for Ozzie Newsome and the Ravens. Now they need to figure out how to get him an exciting target.

Side note: The Eagles trade pick #19 to the Panthers.

Pick #19: Carolina Panthers - Jeff Otah - OT, Pittsburgh - Great selection despite the audience selection. They've got their RB committee, now they've got their solid blocker. And the stupid Lions took who? Glodis Something? Gosder... Idiots...

Side note: What's this crap? HA HA HA HA HA HA!!! They had to cut the talking heads off from their blah blah blah so they could introduce the armed forces. Whoops!

Side note: This is the pick I'm pumped about. I hope it's Devin Thomas. Although it won't be. Gruden's, right now, desperately searching for the "You my boy, Blue!" guy who somehow snuck into college at the age of 80 to do some Jello wrestling.

Side note: Eagles fans are furious right now. This amuses me to no end!

Pick #20: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Aqib Talib - DB, Kansas - SEE! Do you SEE this shit?! They HAVE to pick a wide receiver! HAVE TO! And they pick Aqib Talib, the biggest bust prospect in the defensive backs this season. Every year I want to puke at the Bucs pick, and every year I do. Good for you for smoking pot. Just don't suck on the field. Damn I hate this pick so much...

Side note: Tirico hates the pick, too.

Side note: 5 minutes later, I still hate the Bucs pick. I love Gruden on the sideline, but I hate him in the office. i hate him so damn much in the office. I'd go take off my jersey now, but I'm not a Saints fan. (They take off their jerseys when they start losing in the Superdome. Saints fans suck.)

Side note: The Redskins trade pick #21 to the Falcons.

Side note: I guarantee here comes Devin Thomas. GUARANTEE IT!!!!

Pick #21: Atlanta Falcons - Sam Baker - OT, USC - Uh... That's a beard to be dealt with, for sure. I don't hate the pick because the Falcons are in the NFC South, so they can draft Ethel Merman for all I care.

Side note: ESPN is smart to shoot Rachel Nichols head on, so as to avoid resorting to a 16x9 aspect ratio to accomodate her nose.

Side note: I bet the Cowboys go Mendenhall. They don't want Barber to carry the whole load.

Side note: Quit showing Devin Thomas. I'm sick over it. I need another beer. By the way, I'm halfway through beer #3 after the absinthe by the way. D-R-U-N-K DRUNK! DRUNK! DRUNK!

Pick #22: Dallas Cowboy - Felix Jones - RB, Arkansas - Interesting choice. I think Mendehall is better. Felix Jones reminds me of a non-fat LenDale White. I guess they'd rather have someone used to sharing carries, but I'd bet that neither Marion Barber or Felix Jones is excited about this situation.

Side note: Rashard Mendenhall's pre-draft party looks like the tits! That looked like a strip club and I think I saw a Pabst Blue Ribbon in the background.

Pick #23: Pittsburgh Steelers - Rashard Mendenhall - RB, Illinois - How could you not take him? Willie Parker is great. Mendenhall is, too. Looks like the copycat bug has hit Pittsburgh as well. Look out for the Steelers rushing tandem. Sick, sick stuff, man... I don't love it, but I do fear it.

Side note: My fish tank is filthy. I need to clean it. Tomorrow...

Side note: What's that hood rat drinking at DeSean Jackson's party? Jones Soda or Grey Goose?

Side note: Uh oh! Steve Young wrote Devin thomas in ink! Must be true!

Pick #24: Tennessee Titans - Chris Johnson - RB, East Carolina - He's fast and small. The bizarro LenWhale White. I would say that the Titans are on the copycat train as well now, but I think they're just all out trying to replace LenWhale. He's an intersting pick. But, more importantly, I'm going to pee off of my deck again.

Side note: I hear Nirvana in the background. I sat here for a few seconds and can't think of anything interesting to say about this observation. Beer #4 just opened.

Side note: The Seahawks traded pick #25 to the Cowboys.

Pick #25: Dallas Cowboys - Mike Jenkins - DB, South Florida - Thank God! I don't know anything about this guy! I feel much better not knowing anything about defensive backs. My cat just jumped up on my laptop and frightened me. I should have left what she typed in midsentence, but alas, I did not...

Pick #26: Houston Texans - Duane Brown - OT, Virginia Tech - How many offensive linemen have to go in the first round until you have the lowest ratings in a televised NFL draft ever? I don't know, how many have been selected this time? 10? 12? I feel like I went home with a drunk chick and she fell asleep on the toilet while I'm laying in her bed right now...

Pick #27: San Diego Chargers - Antoine Cason - CB, Arizona - Ha! Thank you Tivo! I dosed off for a little while and had to rewind. I don't know anything about him, but I do know that the Chargers already have some of he best young defensive backs in the league. So, they just went crazy. There's another team that could've used a high caliber wide receiver that didn't take one.

Side note: Ugh... I have a head ache. I love drinking in the afteroon, but I hate not drinking in the evening. Hangovers at 8:00 suck ass.

Pick #28: Seattle Seahawks - Lawrence Jackson - DE, USC - He looks like a good pass rusher. But, honestly Jackson looks to me like a slightly above average player who got drafted in the first round because he went to USC. Meh...

Pick #29: San Francisco 49ers - Kentwan Balmer - DT, North Carolina - That's a big freakin' fella. He's supposed to play nose tackle in San Fran's new 3-4 defensive scheme. He doesn't look like he eats EVERYone's lunches, but he has been known to root around in the bus... What in the hell am I even talking about? Does it make sense to be the drunkest when the people who you've never heard of are being drafted? No!

Side note: The Packers have traded pick #30 to the Jets.

Side note: My oldest son just came home and said that Mel Kiper Jr. looks like a rooster. Best quip of the day!!!

Pick #30: New York Jets - Dustin Keller - TE, Purdue - Ha ha ha ha! The Jets faithful HATE IT! Lots of hands on heads and exasperated looks all around. Honestly, it's a good choice. Because who else have they got? Bubba Franks now? Bubba Franks lost it years ago and Chris Baker never had it. Why not get a playmaker SOMEwhere else besides inside a jersey that says Coles.

Side note: 50 different people were fooled by PIZZA HUT that they were in a regular New York restaurant opening? You're kidding. Pizza Hut? I call bullshit or else I congratulate on finding the 50 stupidest people on the planet. "Mmmm...what is that I taste? A hint of hot wing sauce?"

Side note: Wait, did Berman just compare Eli Manning and Joe Namath? Ugh...

Pick #31: New York Giants - Kenny Phillips - S, Miami - Man, the fans love him! What better way to end this year's Drinkin' and Draftin' than with another defensive back that I don't know anything about. I really don't care about the Giants or defensive backs, so I'm going to go eat dinner.

PEESH!

Labels: 2008 nfl draft, football, nfl, nfl draft, rookies

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Throughout the years of all sports, evolutions occur. In basketball, guards and forwards morphed into point guards, shooting guards, power forwards, and small forwards. Baseball developed closers, setup men, and long relievers from the solitary position of pitcher. Hell, even football has developed the third down back and the slot receiver out of it's original positions.

However, one being seems impervious to the call of evolution. The quarterback.

I feel like most people's argument about the quarterback by committee idea is this: "The quarterback is the leader of the offense! He's like the General leading his men to war! Okay, let me just say bullshit to this. Yes, the quarterback is the one calling the plays. But, in most cases, save for Peyton Manning and a couple of others, those plays are being relayed into him via helmet phone from the offensive coordinator. I'm not saying he's not the "General", but I am saying that it's not like someone else is incapable of being a substitute general.

Am I calling for an even 50/50 split? Absolutely not. Face facts, some quarterbacks are just head and shoulders above others in the world of identifying defenses, calling audibles, and making smart, on the fly, decisions. But, can you imagine how much bigger an asset a Michael Vick (pre-incarceration) or a Vince Young would be to a team if they had another quarterback who could actually pass the ball as well?

Now, you couldn't pull off a Duece McAllister/Reggie Bush type of timeshare at the quarterback position, either. You know when Bush comes in, 7 times out of 10 he's going to be thrown to rather than handed off to. The same goes for McAllister, you can almost rest assured that he's going to be busting through the line with a handoff. So, you can't just have Brian Griese handle 5 pass plays and bring in Jeff Garcia for the bootleg. I think defenses might key in on that pretty quickly. So, you would have to rely on Vince Young, or the like, actually throwing a few ducks.

This would do a couple of things for an offense:

1. The opposing defenses would have to prepare for an onslaught of not one but TWO different quarterbacks with completely different styles of play.

2. The quarterbacks would get extra breathers and have the ability to sit back and watch some plays develop from the sidelines. I can only imagine this would be a huge benefit for a QB stuck in a rut on the field, without the humiliation of being pulled for a full quarter, half or even the game to get fresh legs in the game.

Can you imagine the threat the Eagles would have if they could swap McNabb out with, say, a Tim Tebow in a few years. McNabb is a smart, great passer with reasonably good rushing skills. Tebow is a great rushing QB with reasonably good passing skills. They would consistently keep defenses on their toes.

McNabb is also a great example of a quarterback who seems to get stuck in ruts. He's a great QB, but once he throws an INT you can almost bet there will be another one waiting in the wings soon.

These are just examples. It's probably even a bad example since by the time Tebow comes into the NFL, McNabb will be entering his 11th season at the age of 33. But, you get the idea that I'm throwing out there.

The whole concept of playing a quarterback like a race horse, pushing him and pushing him and pushing him until he's completely spent and then punishing him by pulling him for an extended period of time is outdated. The running back by committee concept has not only been embraced by many coaches in the NFL, it's been adopted by many. It's time NFL coaches start looking at the quarterback by committee concept as a viable suggestion. It would extend careers, keep defenses on their toes, and make the game all the more exciting. If the only excuse is that the offense needs to only take orders from their "General", come on, we're talking about adult millionaires who listen for their names and spend the rest of their time thinking of how they can make themselves look better. You think Chad Johnson gives a shit who is telling him what play to run? He did just fine for Carson Palmer despite hating his guts.

Labels: Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, Donovan McNabb, duece mcallister, football, Jeff Garcia, Matt Hasselbeck, Michael vick, nfl, Peyton Manning, quarterback, reggie bush, Tim Tebow, Vince Young

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JERUSALEM (ArmAss) - The Eagles have finally responded to the hundreds of thousands of unfounded rumors circulating on EagleFellator.com, pardon me...YardBarker.com, by their rabid fan base. Andy Reid took the podeum last night to announce that the Eagles had finalized a deal with the Mecca Camels, a Heavenly franchise in the HFL, to send Lito Sheppard and a 2nd Round pick to Mecca in exchange for #1 receiver Jesus Christ.

"There were some questions on his catching ability, you know with the holes in his hands, but when we took a step back we realized that we're talking about the Holy Ghost here and we knew what we had to do." Reid said immediately before being vaporized by a bolt of lightning.

When approached for a comment, Christ had this to say, "I don't how much I like the new hair code that the NFL is proposing, I've been rocking long hair for some time now. We'll see what Goodell decides and go from there. All I know is that I'm excited to be in Philadelphia, I'm gonna grab a cheesesteak."

Lito Sheppard was disappointed by the decision by Eagles management, voicing concerns over the fact that he will actually have to be killed and buried before joining the HFL as part of their charter. "What do they think? I ain't just gonna push aside a rock in three days and walk back to Philly! This s*** is crazy! Ya'll can't do this to me!" Lito was put down by a tool used for cattle slaughter shortly afterward and buried in his new Camels jersey during a brief ceremony attended by Eagles head staff.

"All I know is I'm glad I didn't go to the Lions, if you know what I'm saying!" Jesus quipped during his press conference.

Labels: Jesus Christ, Lito Sheppard, nfl, Philadelphia Eagles

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We've heard it before time and time again, "The Saints have effectively killed both Bush and McAllister's fantasy value." "Which do you take Julius Jones or Marion Barber?" "Running back by committee is killing my team!" But, how much validity is there in that school of thought. On paper it sounds like a killer, but let's take a deeper look and see what we find.

The Top 10 Total Rush Attempts in 2006 were all put forth by guys who were lone running backs in their team's offensive schemes. The average number of rush attempts between those Top 10 are 335 or 21.1 Rushes Per Game. Let's look at some of the biggest names affected in 2006 by the RB By Committee plague's Rushes Per Game over the years:

• Duece McAllister: 2004 - 19.2, 2005 - 18.6, 2006 - 16.3
• Fred Taylor: 2004 - 18.6, 2005 - 17.6, 2006 - 15.4
• Julius Jones: 2004 - 24.6, 2005 - 19.8, 2006 - 16.7
• DeShaun Foster: 2004 - 14.8, 2005 - 13.7, 2006 - 16.2

With the exception of Julius Jones (Marion Barber has been splitting carries since 2005), these guys have only been part of committees since last season. Here's how the breakdown plays out:

2004: 19.3
2005: 17.4
2006: 16.2

So, since the committee came into play, we've seen our 4 big names drop about 3 rushes per game. That's not too bad, especially considering their average Yards Per Rush number all actually INCREASED from 2005 to 2006 from 4.0 to 4.4 (with the exception of DeShaun Foster who went from 4.3 YPR to 4.0 YPR). If all of those guys keep up the 4.4 Yards Per Rush pace for their average 16.2 Rushes Per Game, that would have them rushing for 1140 yards this season. Not a bad deal considering that Fred Taylor is the only one of the four who has rushed for over 1140 in the past 3 seasons.

The bottom line is, generally speaking, we're not going to see elite running backs fall into committees. I know I read an article recently that had the Saints interested in Larry Johnson, but seriously, why in the world would any team waste the kind of money Larry Johnson would demand when they have an elite running back already on the team? They wouldn't, that's bad business, and if they did...well, George Steinbrenner should have an opening at General Manager by season's end.

So, that being said, the guys who are falling prey to committees should have already had their expectations diminished. On top of that, it actually seems as though the committee is aiding their rush numbers by allowing them fresher legs when they come in.

Oh, you want to talk TD numbers?

• Duece McAllister: 2004 - 9, 2005 - 3, 2006 - 10
• Fred Taylor: 2004 - 2, 2005 - 3, 2006 - 5
• Julius Jones: 2004 - 7, 2005 - 5, 2006 - 4
• DeShaun Foster: 2004 - 2, 2005 - 2, 2006 - 3

Averages:

2004: 5
2005: 3.25
2006: 5.5

So, fear not, fellow Fantasy Football nutcases! The running back by committee scourge we're seeing become ever present in our beloved game is not the end of the fantasy world as we know it, only a new tool to use against the people who don't take the time to figure things out.

Just thought you should know.

Labels: deshaun foster, duece mcallister, fantasy football, football, fred taylor, julius jones, nfl, rb by committee, running back

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Okay, last season of all of my ballyhooing and jabbering, I pulled out a 50% accurate, 18% push, and 32% dead wrong record. Pretty good, considering the subject matter. However, where I failed you all was in the Sleepers & Busters article last season, where I pulled a LenDale White sized belly flop picking only 4 of 10 correctly. Nasty.

Well, here I go again. This time I can feel it in my marrow, we're on the right path and if you stand firm behind me, we're going to take this one all the way to Chinatown! You ready? Me too, let do this...

Quarterbacks

Sleeper: Philip Rivers, QB - San Diego Chargers (Avg. Rank: 12.45, Hi: 6, Lo: 17)

With an average ranking of 12.45 and ranked as low as #17 (We were the one's who ranked him #6.) in our quest for player rankings, Philip Rivers is getting treated like the fantasy football equivalent of Pabst Blue Ribbon. In a draft pool of Heinekins, Sam Adams, and Red Stripes sometimes people forget that Pabst is also a tasty cheaper alternative. His 2006 Passer Rating was #6 of all QBs playing in more than 12 games last season. He threw 22 TDs last season (#8 overall) and only 9 picks (#3 among players with 12 or more games). He's got the 2nd best offensive line in football, one of the best receiving running backs in the league, THE best receiving tight end, and a bright young receiver corps. So, dig down in the ice and grab that Pabst later on when your buddies are smug about grabbing temporarily crutchless Donovan McNabb and enjoy the smooth cold flavor.

Buster: Vince Young, QB - Tennessee Titans (Avg. Rank: 8.64, Hi: 7, Lo: 12)

It's a hard lesson to learn, I know. But, take a moment to soak this in: "Running quarterbacks are not as good as advertised." Print that. Yeah, I know, rushing points come every 10-20 yards, while passing points come every 25-50 yards. So, if you have a QB who will rush for between 500-900 yards, hell yeah, right? Wrong. Okay, so he runs. But, where's he going? Most of the time not the end zone. Most QB rushes are midfield scrambles. Running backs are trained to run, quarterbacks are not. A chef that can mix drinks isn't better than a chef who can't because the one who can make drinks is going to do a half-ass job at both because he's busying himself trying to be the whole kitchen. Case in point, Vince Young had a 51.54% completion percentage last season and a 66.7 passer rating. Awful. Okay, so his drink mixing skills were pretty good with a 6.7 Yard Per Rush average, but the cooking at Cafe Vince sucks. And besides, who's he going to throw to? When Brandon Jones is your #1 receiver, you'd better run Vinny. Don't waste your pick.

Bold Statement: Alex Smith will be a Top 10 QB by season's end.

Running Backs

Sleeper: Jerrious Norwood, RB - Atlanta Falcons (Avg. Rank: 37.36. Hi: 31, Lo: 44)

I toiled and toiled over this pick because I had two other guys who would fit neatly into the slot (Brandon Jacobs (Avg. Rank: 24.36) and Marion Barber (Avg. Rank: 24.36)). Any of those 3 are prime sleeper material, as I believe they will all blow up in a major way. As a matter of fact for the past few months, Brandon Jacobs has been in my mind as my pick this year, but seeing Norwood ranked so low and seeing Jacobs at least getting SOME respect skewed my choice at the last minute. Norwood led all running backs with a 6.4 Yards Per Rush average and produced a healthy 8.5 Yards Per Reception average. He's got a great offensive line and a guy in front of him who should step aside at any moment. His only downfall is that Michael Vick doesn't particularly like to let anyone else touch the ball. But, if Vick finds himself bludgeoned with carrots by PETA, I'm sure Joey Harrington wouldn't mind letting ANYone else take the ball from him. I'm not saying he's first half draft material, but in those later rounds when you're drunkenly thinking about taking Wali Lundy or Kevan Barlow, you'd be better off with Norwood.

Buster: Travis Henry, RB - Denver Broncos (Avg. Rank: 13.09, Hi: 8, Lo: 20)

Guys...seriously. We need to talk. There's people out there who think Travis Henry is a Top 10 running back. People in positions to advise. This, my friends, is called lunacy. Yeah, okay, he was pretty good in 2002 and 2003 with Buffalo. Gotcha. But this is 5 years later! He's done nothing but suck up until last season when he became just barely above average. Now people see him in Denver and think he's the 13th best RB ahead of names like Clinton Portis and Edgerrin James? I know Portis and James weren't great last season, but come on! It's possible to not be good under Mike Shannahan. Tatum Bell did it last season. Don't fall for the hype, please. You'll be sorry.

Bold Statement: Larry Johnson, not LaDanian Tomlinson, not Steven Jackson, will be the biggest point scorer in fantasy football this season.

Wide Receivers

Sleeper: Drew Bennett, WR - St. Louis Rams (Avg. Rank: 46.91, Hi: 34, Lo: 63)

This was a tough one as well, because as I dug through the ranks, I kept looking shallow. Randy Moss, Terry Glenn, Andre Johnson (again). Too safe. Dig deeper, David! So, I did...and this is who I found. Last season, Bennett muddled through a long season of Tennessee's inadequacy, a rookie QB with a penchant for running, and a lackluster running game leading to defenses keying in on the WRs (I just noticed I could have easily called this article "Wail On The Titans"). Bennett finds himself in an environment where yards and TDs abound. Since Marc Bulger took over in the middle of 2002, the Rams have had at least 2 (TWO!) players with at least 800 yards receiving (2002: 1302 & 1075, 2003: 1696 & 981, 2004: 1372 & 1292, 2005: 1331 & 801, 2006: 1188, 1098, & 806). Normaly those two players are named Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce, but Isaac Bruce is 35 years old. While Bruce is still slotted as the #2 WR, he's due for a dramatic decrease in looks with a player of Bennett's calibur now in the mix. Rated as he is, you should see him fall to some lower rounds. Don't be afraid to pull the trigger and grab him, he will be a large producer for what he is this season.

Buster: Larry Fitzgerald, WR - Arizona Cardinals (Avg. Rank: 7.27, Hi: 6, Lo: 9)

Now, I'm not saying that Larry Fitzgerald is a bad pick or a bad player. What I'm saying is that he's ranked way too high for the numbers he produces. He averages only 13.6 Yards Per Reception (2006: 13.7 was 48th overall against players with at least 12 games in 2006) and 8 TDs a season (2006: 6 was 7th overall against all WRs). With two other very good WRs in the mix, a RB that gets a decent amount of receptions, and a young QB with a subpar O-Line, I'm not saying he won't warrant a fairly high pick, he just stands a very good chance of disappointing this season.

Bold Statement: Marques Colston will hit the sophomore slump this season.

Tight Ends

Sleeper: Ben Watson, TE - New England Patriots (Avg. Rank: 9.36, Hi: 7, Lo: 13)

Dueling TEs sucks almost as bad as dueling RBs for a fantasy footballer. Almost as bad because TEs suck anyway, but they're a necessary evil. If you split their receptions in half, then it just gets nasty. Fortunately for Dr. Watson, his counterpart, Daniel Graham, jumped ship for Denver in the off season. This leaves Kyle Brady as his main competition, and Kyle Brady is a blocker, not a receiver. Now, with Moss, Stallworth, and Welker new on the scene in New England, this won't leave a WHOLE lot of receptions for Watson. But, he was already a very good tight end option and he just got better.

Buster: Jeremy Shockey, TE - New York Giants (Avg. Rank: 4.73, Hi: 3, Lo: 12)

With the 17th best Yard Per Reception average (11.4) over the past 3 seasons and 30th best in 2006 (9.4), Shockey's only saving grace is when he's near the end zone. Yes, he does have the 2nd best 3 Year Average in TD Receptions (6.7 per season), but TDs aren't everything. Once again, as with Larry Fitzgerald, I'm not saying stay away, I'm just saying the product you're purchasing isn't as good as advertised.

Bold Statement: Alge Crumpler will barely be a Top 10 TE by season's end.

Kickers

Sleeper: Rian Lindell, K - Buffalo Bills (Avg. Rank: 18.33, Hi: 16, Lo: 21)

There's two main things to look at when you look at a kicker: 1)Accuracy 2)The strength of his team's offense. Clearly, you want an accurate kicker. I don't even have to tell you that, but I did anyway. But, almost as importantly, you want a kicker with a team offense that's good enough to get in field goal range, but bad enough to flop when they get there. Lindell's got both. Over the past 3 seasons, Lindell's FGs Made %s are as follows: 85.7%, 82.9%, and 92.0% averaging out to 86.9%. There's only two regular kickers with higher accuracy percentages (Stover and Vinatieri). Plus, with J.P. Losman heading the offense, the 2nd worst offensive line, and an unproven (albeit highly touted) rookie as their starting running back, you have a mix that should get him close to his range. Oh, and did you know that Lindell's 50+ Yard FG Made % is 100% over the past 3 years? Yep, 5 for 5. You know who else has done that that's on the list right now? No one.

Buster: Robbie Gould, K - Chicago Bears (Avg. Rank: 4.11, Hi: 1, Lo: 7)

What did we learn last season about kickers who weren't very good one season and were very good the next? They tend to come back to earth. Right, Neil Rackers? In 2005, Robbie Gould hit only 77.8% of all FGs, then in 2006 he hit 88.9%. He's only played two seasons, how can I judge? Look at his stats, after a super hot start that inevitably earned him the ranking he currently owns, he hit the wall in Week 9. He averaged 11.8 points per game through the first 8 weeks, then, starting at Week 9, 6.7. After hitting 100% through the first 11 weeks, he only hit 67% after that. Plus, on top of all of that, his career longest FG is only 49 yards. He hasn't even attempted a 50+ yet.

Bold Statement: Mike Vanderjagt will return to the NFL this season and become a Top 10 kicker again.

Defenses

Sleeper: Green Bay Packers DST (Avg. Rank: 12.00. Hi: 4, Lo: 16)

Apparently not a lot of people noticed that the Packers turned in one of the finest statistical defensive displays of the season last year coming in 4th in sacks (46), 3rd in INTs (23), and 2nd in DEF TDs (5). Maybe that was because they also ranked 25th in Points Allowed (354) and the team just really sucked all season. But, the fact is that despite the Packers being Favre's team, they have generally been a solid defense year in and year out. This year should be any different. A.J. Hawk has aged a season and should excel, Charles Woodsen is always nasty, and Aaron Kampman (2nd most sacks in the NFL with 15.5) is back in full effect.

Buster: Miami Dolphins DST (Avg. Rank: 6.70, Hi: 5, Lo: 9)

Okay, yes they signed Joey Porter. The Dolphins will be one of the hardest teams in the league to run against between Porter, Zach Thomas, Jayson Taylor, and Keith Traylor. No question. But, last season they had 8 (EIGHT!) INTs, ranking them #31 overall and they did next to nothing to address that fact in the off season. While the rest of the stats are up to snuff, this glaring mistake tells me that they are leaving themselves open to a whole lot of airborne atatcks this season, which will leave Dolphins DST owners a little disappointed. That's why I cycle defenses like a madman, but that's another article.

Bold Statement: The San Diego Chargers will become the #1 defense this season.

Just thought you should know.

Labels: busts, fantasy draft, fantasy football, nfl, predictions, projections, sleepers

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Memorandum: NBC

Last Sunday was Week 13 in the NFL's regular season. For the past 13 Sunday evenings, we your viewing audience, has listened to John Madden and Al Michaels go completely silent for periods of up to one minute. Yeah, this is a nice break from hearing such Madden-isms as "Well, Al, these guys are just gonna have to get out there and play football." and "The thing I like about, so-and-so, is that when he throws the ball, he uses his whole arm." But, dammit, it's just unprofessional on your end!

Week 13! Has the DLP Hi-Definition Johnny-5 camera that hovers around the field depleted the microphone budget? I want answers NBC! There's no excuse for this to have gone on for 13 weeks straight.

Although, it has made me chuckle to think that maybe the silence is just the physical manifestation of Al Michael's happy place, since the silences tend to come toward the end of the game when Madden is punch drunk on cold cuts and cheese and just rambling out Madden-isms. But, that's just me... So, just fix it.

Labels: al michaels, john madden, nbc, nfl, sunday night football

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I know, I know. This is no time to be pessimistic. During the very season that LaDanian Tomlinson is projecting better numbers than any running back in history, who am I to knock on the bathroom door and politely tell fantasy owners that they'd better hurry and get their rocks off humping his leg before it's too late.

Now, I'm not saying anything about THIS season. No way! Ride that donkey all the way to the championships, big fella! What I'm talking about is the future. Something struck me as I was driving home the other evening. I thought, "Every year there seems to be one running back who gives an unfair advantage to the team who owns him...and it never fails that someone thinks they're the luckiest person in the world to get that #1 pick the following year and wind up drafting Marshall Faulk in 2002, or Priest Holmes in 2004, or even Shaun Alexander in 2006." I thought, is there a way to somehow PREDICT the unpredictable fall off of these stellar running backs in time to save face for next seasons draft?

Of course...well, not a foolproof method, but it's certainly something to think about. Let's continue, shall we?

Now to stick to a Fantasy Football perspective and not a Hall of Fame contest, I'm going to stick strictly to Fantasy Points in this comparison. The fantasy points were derived from the universal stats and point values: 10 yards (rushing & receiving) = 1 point, TD = 6 points. We're just talking about the basics. Just the meat. If you're the type who gives points for rushing attempts, broken tackles, and crotches sniffed...well, get a life.

Let's start with the classics. The old greats from around the time when most (some) of us started playing this silly little game of ours:

Thurman Thomas lead the AFC in rushing in 1990, 1991, and 1993. Ironically enough, the year that he didn't win the rushing crown was the year of his greatest fantasy performance. On top of that irony is that in 1993, he won the AFC rushing crown on the cusp of his downward slide.

Peak Fantasy Points: 283.3
Seasons To Get To Peak: 5
Next Season Total: 206.2

Maybe a couple of you had heard of this guy back in the day. I thought twice about including this guy on the list due to his line not fitting in with the rest, but then in a fit of journalistic integrity I decided it would be irresponsible not to include one of the best running backs of the 90s. Maybe it was because Barry took his ball and went home when the Lions refused to trade him and he was able to retire on top of the game, but while everyone else's graph on this list resembles a mountain, Barry's resembles a rocky plateau. Maybe that speaks to Barry's ownership of the game, or maybe he just got out of the game before he pulled an Emmitt Smith.

Peak Fantasy Points: 319.8
Seasons To Get To Peak: 9
Next Season Total: 202.0

The NFL's Career Rushing Yardage record holder, Emmitt Smith, was a monster to own in the early 90s. If he was on your team, no one could touch you. In 1995, he did the unthinkable when he hopped over the 350 Fantasy Points mark. However, the next year his fantasy points fell to 235.3 and he only topped that mark one more time (240.7 in 1998) over the course of 9 more seasons spent desperately trying to take Walter Payton's record.

Peak Fantasy Points: 364.8
Seasons To Get To Peak: 6
Next Season Total: 235.3


Many of you are probably most familiar with Marshall Faulk, as he was many people's golden child in their virgin seasons. As part of the the seemingly unstoppable Rams, it seemed that Faulk was an unstoppable force by himself. He created fantasy league champions all over the world from '99 to '01. But, when trigger happy owners spent their #1 pick on him in 2002, jaws hit the floor and pants filled with poo. We watched the cliff fall out from under Mr. Faulk like Wyl E. Coyote in Looney Tunes, but Mr. Faulk forgot his tiny umbrella and he suddenly became a tiny dust cloud at the bottom of the fantasy canyon.

Peak Fantasy Points: 374.9
Seasons To Get To Peak: 7
Next Season Total: 334.7
NEXT Season Total: 203.0
Ah, Priest Holmes! What a great story. He just wanted somewhere to play. Baltimore couldn't seem to fit him in. He did well in 1998 cresting 1000 yards in his rookie season, but then sat back in a reserve role until Kansas City grabbed him up in 2001. He took that opportunity to say, "Eff-You Baltimore, I'm goin' off!" He put up numbers the likes of which have never been seen, and he called himself Tenacious D...excuse me... No one before him had put up two consecutive 350+ point seasons. But, we all know what happened next, and people were STILL drafting him in 2005 in hopes of catching just a glimpse of what he had been.

Peak Fantasy Points: 371.0
Seasons To Get To Peak: 6
Next Season Total: 193.9


Now we get to LT. Now, I'm an LT owner and I know what kind of benefits this man has provided for my team this season. If I'm down 35 going into the afternoon games on Sunday and Tomlinson hasn't played yet, I can still kick my feet up and rest easy that good ol' LT will run circles around whatever defense they throw at him. This weekend I started LT and Joseph Addai who combined for 74.96 points. That's enough to win games all by themselves, but I had seven other players on top of that. (Just wanted to brag again...)

Back to the topic at hand. Looking at the five players we've discussed prior to King Tomlinson, if you'll notice, they all seem to hit their peak fantasy value at around the 6th year (the average is 6.6, but you get the idea.) This just happens to be LT's 6th season in the NFL. While the totals for 2006 are just projections according to his statistics up to Week 12, he's not only about to beat the all-time fantasy points record, he's about to smash it by more than 50.

LaDanian reminds me of the story of Icarus. Long boring mythology short, Icarus built wax wings to prove to his father that he could touch the sun, the sun melted his wings, he plummeted back to Earth. Now, I'm not saying LT is pushing himself too hard or anything like that. But, you can look at the charts above and see historically that once a running back hits a peak, he not only never touches that number again, he continues to plummet right back to Earth.

Why do I think LT has hit his peak? You mean besides the fact that he's on the verge of scoring 441.1 points, when the highest I've run across is Faulk's 374.9? I guess the way he's running this season, I can't wholeheartedly say that it's his peak...but, you've got to consider it.

So, there you have it. Take it for what it is. One guy's opinion and attempt at predicting the unpredictable. But, I know that if I land the 1st pick in 2007, I will be wary of drafting LaDanian Tomlinson with my pick.

Just thought you should know...

Labels: fantasy football, football, LaDanian Tomlinson, nfl

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So, here we are. Week 10 is coming to a close. Playoff positions are beginning to solidify. Fantasy managers are beginning to either lose hope or plan for the playoffs. But, most importantly, trade deadlines are looming over the league.

Besides the draft, the trade deadline is the next most important time when the great managers are separated from the good. Do you sit idly by and let the team that got you there continue to carry you, or do you take a gamble and fill a hole or upgrade a question mark? For the sake of the article, I'm gonna say, it's trade time.

There's a few rules of thumb we should go over in the art of trade making:

1. Never make a deal with a guy you're in direct competition with. It's not good business. You'd shoot yourself if it was your guy who knocked you out of playoff contention. You may get a good deal, but it's always a gamble. This is more of a painful thing to watch than a team killer.

2. Saying "I need an RB!" on the message board will not get the job done. When you post that message, you're basically saying, "I'm desperate! Send me the most ridiculous deal you could imagine." If you want a leg up, you have to take the initiative. You have to take the time to offer trades. No one is looking to give you LaDanian Tomlinson. They're looking to see if you're desperate enough to give up Donovan McNabb for Travis Henry. So, don't waste your time.

3. Getting one stud for two good players is a good deal. Offering up Phillip Rivers and Terry Glenn for Frank Gore when you're in a pinch for an RB looks appealing for the other team and works well for you, assuming Rivers is your #2 and you can fill the hole left by Glenn.

4. Multiplayer deals are the way to go. A lot of times you can disguise a lopsided deal by making a 3 for 3 trade. Asking for Larry Johnson and two scrubs in return for three solid players, suddenly makes it seem more bearable to lose LJ for the other guy. Just make sure you try and trade position for position, it will make it seem more fair, because you're automatically filling the holes you create.

5. Use your Instant Messenger. You offer a trade. Two days later, your deal gets rejected and reworked. A day later, you respond. Before you know it, the trade deadline has passed. Work out a time when you can meet up and talk things out on Yahoo Messenger or AIM. Don't leave the table until a deal is hammered out. More times than not, vigilance will work out in your benefit. Kind of the way a filibuster works, eventually the other guy will say, "I don't care anymore, I'll take the deal just to shut you up!"

6. Know your victim. It's easy to look at Willie Parker sitting on top of the steaming pile of dook that is the last place team and offer up a deal. I mean, you're doing him a favor offering him Jeremy Shockey for Parker, right? No, that deal would get vetoed by any league with any amount of dignity. Plus, the poor sap in last place knows that nothing outside of a miracle will save him, so nine times out of ten, he's not interested in your vulture impression. The top teams won't want to shake up their team either. No, the team you need to set your sights on is the teams JUST barely out of contention for the playoffs. They're desperate for a shot in the arm, they're ready to deal and they want it now. Stick your heart in the freezer and bleed them dry.

7. Be sure to check out the matchups. Sometimes when you get a deal offer, it's easy to just pull the trigger. But, don't forget to do your homework. Make sure you check out the matchups during the final four weeks of the season. You don't want to make the deal of the season just to find out your new stud receiver plays Baltimore, Jacksonville, and Chicago in the three weeks of the playoffs. It's easy to just jump, it'll keep you alive if you put on the parachute first.

8. Don't trade just to trade. One of the worst things you can do is to just make a trade because it's fun. It never fails that someone will offer you a deal, and it's not a great deal, but you make a reworked offer. Suddenly, you just made a deal you didn't need to make just because you got bit by the trade bug. So, put some ointment on it, stick your hands in your pockets, whatever... Just keep that itchy trigger finger away from your mouse.

The late season trade is an art. Take it from the guy who, every season, gets accused of rigging trades or some other underhanded maneuvering. You CAN get the player you want and need. You just have to study the art, hone your craft, and turn off your heart light.

Labels: fantasy football, football trades, nfl, trade, trade deadline

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