We've been screwing around in the wading pool with all of the various infield positions, but now it's time to slide on some floaties and plunge into the murky abyss. The vast Outfielder Ocean. It's inhabitants are as varying as the inhabitants of the Mariana Trench (the deepest part of the ocean where life barely exists, for those who aren't down with their oceanology.) You've got giant whales lumbering around (Carlos Lee), violent predators (Jose Guillen, Delmon Young), and puny prey (Juan Pierre, Kenny Lofton).

Perusing the outfielders is mush like stepping into Super Wal-Mart, except you don't feel like killing yourself afterward. There's merchand...Jesus, enough of the metaphors, jackass. Let's break out some sleepers and busters:


Sleepers:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury - Boston Red Sox - If everyone knows he's a sleeper, does that player still remain a sleeper? In this case I'll say yes, because I don't think everyone realizes the kind of player Ellsbury has the potential to be, especially playing for perennial contender Boston. Last season Ellsbury only showed up in 33 games, if we project his numbers from 2007 into a 145 game season in 2008, his stat line looks like this: 91 runs, 14 home runs, 83 RBI, and 41 stolen bases. Quite a deal at his current ranking of #42 among all outfielders.

2. Josh Hamilton - Texas Rangers - This guy's had a GREAT spring. Add that to the fact that he belted 19 home runs in 90 games all the while maintaining an almost .300 batting average, and I get VERY excited. Hitting in a light Rangers lineup, the pressure will be on Hamilton to perform. But he's projected out to hit 33 out of the park this season. I like those odds from someone you can get in the middle rounds of a draft.

3. Chris Young - Arizona Diamondbacks - I was at a double header for the Mobile BayBears (formerly the Padres Double-A affiliate) where the BayBears were playing the Birmingham Barons (White Sox affiliate). I sat there and watched Chris Young steal 4 bases in the first game, then in the second game he smacked two home runs and stole two more bases. I knew right there we were going to see big things from this guy, and sure enough, three years later, here we are. Young's average isn't pretty, it's not even 2 AM, Goldschlager, back alley doable. But, who cares when I feel good projecting out 30 home runs and 35 stolen bases from the 22nd ranked outfielder. Look out, Soriano.

4. Jerry Owens - Chicago White Sox - Ladies and gentlemen, meet the next Juan Pierre. Jerry Owens might hit like Jerry's Kids, but he runs like Jesse Owens. The kid has all but earned the starting spot in center for the White Sox, and stole 32 bases in 93 games. Assuming Owens holds on to the starting gig all season, expect 50+ SBs, but not much else. What's even more interesting, he's only owned on 11% of ESPN teams.

5. Jacque Jones - Detroit Tigers - He fell off the map after a piss poor season being shuffled around in a crowded Cubs outfield last season. Well, for now, he's got a starting gig in Detroit's powerful lineup and, once again, if you look historically last season was Jacque's only bad season since 1999. He's not too old pick up where he left off in 2006 when he slugged 27 dingers. And, as the 84th ranked outfielder he can be had for the price of an Oreo cookie.

Busters:

1. Bobby Abreu - New York Yankees - It wasn't that long ago that I was singing the praises of people like Abreu. The type who can hit and run. But, then I had an epiphany. If you look at HRs and SBs as singular stats, 16 home runs isn't very many and neither is 25 stolen bases. On top of that, Bobby will be 34 this year, right around the time where players not named Kenny Lofton start slowing down on the base paths. If he pulls a 15/20 season this year, that doesn't bode well for the 14th ranked outfielder.

2. Eric Byrnes - Arizona Diamondbacks - Ummm... Did this guy take a Fred McGriff video baseball course in 2006 or something? How often do you see a 30 year old run of the mill player suddenly break out into superstardom? Not often, and I'm often very leary of those who do. You can view him as the 20th ranked outfielder, or you can view him as a guy playing way above his potential, like me. He had a great 2007 with 21 HRs and 50 SBs, but jumpin' Jesus on a pogo stick, do you HONESTLY think he can pull that off again considering that he's never done it before in 8 seasons?

3. Aaron Rowand - San Francisco Giants - Face facts, Aaron Rowand isn't that great of a fantasy player. He's a hell of a guy to have on your REAL baseball team, but stats wise, he's average to subpar. The best thing he ever did for himself was bust his nose open. Now he's playing in San Francisco where good careers go to die. I'm afraid those 27 homers he hit last season to get him up to 43 on the outfielder rankings will probably be more than he hits in the next two seasons.

4. Johnny Damon - New York Yankees - Coming into 2008, Johnny Hero doesn't even have a position solidified. He's penciled in at DH, but so are Giambi and Shelley Duncan. On top of that, Damon's been on a fairly steady decline since joining the Yanks. He may still be a viable fantasy player, but I can't see any reason whatsoever to put him as the 35th best outfielder.

5. Rick Ankiel - St. Louis Cardinals - Who didn't love this story last year? If you didn't love seeing Rick Ankiel come back from being a monumental flop as a pitcher to become a slugging outfielder, you don't love baseball and you should go back to Communist Russia where bear skin hat wear you. But, come on, this is the epitome of shortsightedness. Ranked number 50 among outfielders, people are actually expecting another miracle. Well, I guess there's probably some people out there who won a million dollars in the lottery and wish they had've held out for the 10 million dollar drawing.

Labels: Aaron Rowand, Bobby Abreu, busters, Chris Young, Eric Byrnes, fantasy baseball, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jacque Jones, Jerry Owens, Johnny Damon, Josh Hamilton, Rick Ankiel, sleepers

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Now we find ourselves moving on to the second best collection of sluggers on the field. Less bulky than first basemen, these guys have been known to steal a base or two as well. As a matter of fact, the de facto #1 overall pick (A-Rod, or Gay-Rod, depending on your region) lives on the hot corner. As a position, the third baseman is generally a 5 category player. It's a rarity to see 0 stolen bases, unless there's a chub like Aramis or a hobbled old man like Rolen, but even Rolen'll get you 4 or 5 stolen bases.

So, let's dive right in and pick apart some third basemen:

Sleepers:

1. Josh Fields - Chicago White Sox - If Josh Fields hadn't gotten twice as many at bats as it takes to remain a rookie, he'd be a prime contender for AL R.O.Y. But, alas, he'll just have to be a very good cheap option for us fantasy types. In those 373 at bats last season, Fields belted 23 home runs and 67 RBI. Sure he only had a .244 average, but let me take this moment to remind you that the difference between a .250 hitter and a .300 hitter over the course of 400 at bats is only 20 hits. The chances of a .250 hitter going 2 for 3 in a game aren't that far off from a .300 hitter. If you pay attention to batting average, you're wasting stress on the wrong areas. Focus on things like why people are stupid enough to go on Moment of Truth. Here's Field's projected 2008 numbers: 76/34/97/1/.272

2. Mark Reynolds - Arizona Diamondbacks - For all intents and purposes, Mark Reynolds had a better season last year than Josh Fields. He had less home runs, but the rest of his stats were better. So, why is 26th ranked third baseman Mark Reynolds below Josh Fields on this sleeper list? Because CURRENTLY he is slated to back up Chad Tracy. That should last all of a month, tops, IF it even lasts past spring training. Reynolds' projected 2008 numbers go like this: 90/25/90/0/.279 You know what, why don't we just call Josh Fields and Mark Reynolds co-#1 sleepers. Okay, done.

3. Edwin Encarnacion - Cincinnati Reds - It's been since Marge Schott's poodle died that the Reds fans have had anything to cheer about. But, guess what, it looks like the NL Central's got a Red Scare on their hands. Now don't get me wrong, Dusty will figure out a way to destroy every single young career on this potentially great team, he always does. But, enough commentary, here's the projected 2008 numbers for this 14th ranked third baseman: 75/19/90/9/.290 Sold? Sold.

Busters:

1. Alex Rodriguez - New York Yankees - No, this is not me saying that Alex Rodriguez will not be great this season. He's been great for 12 consecutive seasons. Why stop now? He won't. I just hate when there's a clear cut default #1 overall pick. You feel like you're forced into him, just like last season with Soriano and that didn't pan out either. There's no way he continues last year's pace, obviously. But, if you don't take him at #1, you'll feel silly. I'm just saying don't expect A-Rod to be ranked #1 after this season.

2. Chipper Jones - Atlanta Braves - Now, I'll admit, I've had it in for Chipper for as long as I can remember. Two things that instantly make me cringe about a person: Racoon eye tan lines from wrap around shades and grown men going by the name Chipper. But, there's something else... I'm concerned when I see a 35 year old baseball player have his best season since he was 29. Now, he'll be 36 shortly after Opening Day, and let's face facts, the Braves aren't looking very good this year. I don't see it. But, maybe I've been blinded by the name Chipper.

3. Evan Longoria - Tampa Bay Devil Rays - Wait a second... What list are we on here? Sleepers or busters? If you've followed baseball in the past season, chances are you've been hearing about this kid. He's averaging a $4 auction value, a 16th Round draft selection, and is the 20th ranked third baseman, all without ever having played a major league game. He may not even start the season in the majors this year either. His Double-A numbers are pretty good (21 HRs in 381 ABs) but he strikes out almost as much as Adam Dunn, and let's face it, playing for the Devil Rays in the major leagues is a pretty damn far cry from the Montgomery Biscuits.

Labels: Alex Rodriguez, busters, Chipper Jones, Edwin Encarnacion, Evan Longoria, fantasy baseball, Josh Fields, Mark Reynolds, sleepers, Third Basemen

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When it comes to five tool wunderkinds of the baseball world, they are few and far between in the land of middle infielders. For what ever reason, shortstop has many more tools at your disposal than second base. In my opinion, this factor makes drafting a great second baseman and shortstop early a priority. There's 20-25 top tier outfielders, I'd be happy with any of the top 10 first or third basemen, but when you get past the top 4 or 5 middle infielders, I start getting sweaty palms.

So, why is it a priority to draft one of the few good middle infielders early and a joke to draft one of the few good catchers early? Because the few good middle infielders will get you 20-30 home runs or 50-70 stolen bases. The few good catchers will get you 15-20 home runs and 120 games played. That's it. So, here's some shortstops you may not be aware of and some that you may be TOO aware of:

Sleepers:

1. Jhonny Peralta - Cleveland Indians - For three years in a row Juh-honny has put up very respectable numbers (a 3 Year Average of 84/19/73/2/.273). So, why is it that this guy is ranked #15 among shortstops? He the starting shortstop for a scrappy contender. Is it his dyslexic name? That must be it, because I don't see any other explanation.

2. Felipe Lopez - Washington Nationals - Oh man, has this guy fallen off the charts. One bad start and mediocre finish will do that in the unforgiving world of fantasy rankings. But, face facts, this guy had some weird things going on. In 2005, he blew the eff up with 23 home runs out of nowhere. In 2006, he forgot how to hit the dinger, but suddenly learned how to steal 44 friggin' bases. Then in 2007 he kind of forgot how to do any of it until the end of the season. I'm gonna put it on the table that he regains better form this season.

3. Jason Bartlett - Tampa Bay DEVIL Rays - Now, Bartlett's probably not going to set your roto numbers on fire with his bat. He'll probably get you 5-6 home runs. His worth lies in the fact that he'll get you 20-25 stolen bases and 70-80 runs. As a matter of fact, his projected stats are very similar to Orlando Cabrera's who is ranked 10 spots ahead of Bartlett. The best news is, you could probably hold off on drafting him until the end of the draft and focus on beefing up other spots once the top 4 or 5 shortstops have been drafted.

Busters:

1. Miguel Tejada - Houston Astros - It happens time and time again. A guy who is "allegedly" on steroids (I use "allegedly" because...come on...) goes off the juice and starts getting injured and his play goes down. Guess what happened to the former second most consecutive games played record holder last season? Right! He missed 30 games or so and his production was way down. Then his name shows up in bold print in the Mitchell Report. Factor that in with the fact that he'll be playing half of his games in the 6th worst park to hit in, suddenly he's not looking so hot.

2. Orlando Cabrera - Chicago White Sox - Why this guy is in the Top 10 shortstops, I don't know. As I said a couple of paragraphs up, you can get similar numbers well down the draft board. I know how these prognosticators work, they love to put 100% validity into the previous seasons stats for some reason and ignore a history of mediocrity. I'm a little more cynical than that. I don't see the value here...

3. Khalil Greene - San Diego Padres - Another instance of one great season makes prognosticators only be able to focus on the giant boobs despite the horse face. Khalil nearly doubled up his home run numbers from his previous three seasons (15, 15, 15, 27) last year. Is it a case of coming of age, or was it just dumb luck? Whatever, Greene is a notoriously slow starter and really shouldn't you be less worried about the guys who drop off at the end of the season during the draft? If a guy is notorious for terrible Augusts and Septembers, that great you can trade him off in July after he tears up the league. You can't do a damn thing with a slow starter who will find his way onto the waiver wire by May.

Labels: busters, fantasy baseball, Felipe Lopez, Jason Bartlett, Jhonny Peralta, Khalil Greene, Miguel Tejada, Orlando Cabrera, shortstops, sleepers

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Second Basemen and Shortstops are two of the most difficult positions to find great value in. They're better than catchers in that they play almost every game and their knees actually function well enough to move them, often times with great speed. That being said, a middle infielder's greatest assets are stolen bases and run generating ability.

Keep this in mind when drafting, it may just blow your mind: The average number of home runs hit by the Top 300 position players in the major leagues is 14. The average number of stolen bases by the same is 7. 132 of those 300 players hit 14 or more home runs, almost half of them. But, only 90 stole 7 or more bases. That's less than a third. Only 27 players averaged 20 or more stolen bases over the last 3 seasons, 12 of those were middle infielders.

What does that mean? It means that stolen bases are the most undervalued category in fantasy baseball. When the Top 300 position players in fantasy baseball stole a total of 2256 bases, and the Top 10 base stealers stole 21% of those bases, sounds to me like grabbing a couple of speedsters real quick should be a pretty big priority.

Anyways, I didn't mean to get on my stolen base soapbox again. Here's some sleepers and busters:

Sleepers:

1. Jayson Nix - Colorado Rockies - If I offered you a kid playing in Colorado who could hit 16 home runs and steal 21 bases for you, is that something you'd be interested in? (Thanks, Bob Ryan!) Remember how I waved off that whole concept with Carlos Guillen as two average stat totals don't make someone good? Well, that only applies to positions that aren't directly next to second base. He's currently slated to start at second for the Rocks, and despite never being in a Major League game before, he's already a prime candidate for R.O.Y.

2. Yunel Escobar - Atlanta Braves - Is he a powerhouse? Nah. Is he a speedster? Not really. He'll get you 10-12 HRs and 10-12 SBs this year. He's currently slated to start at shortstop right now, but second base is a thin group, so cut me some slack. The guy qualifies at almost every position in the infield, which is a great asset to have come Mondays and Thursdays when most teams are taking on a day off.

3. Aaron Hill - Toronto Blue Jays - This guy SHOULDN'T be much of a sleeper, but the man who went 87/17/78/4/.291 last season somehow found himself the #14 over ranked second baseman. I'd understand if it looked flukey a la Carlos Pena, but the guy has only been in the league for 3 seasons and his stats have improved every season. What's a guy gotta do to get some love around here?

Busters:

1. Brandon Phillips - Cincinnati Reds - I have never been a believer in Brandon Phillips. He was supposed to be something special early in his career, and he wasn't. Then, he was supposed to be a huge bust, then suddenly he was good. Now, he's supposed to be a top tier second baseman, and I just keep waiting for the punchline. Plus, Dusty Baker has a penchant for destroying young bright careers.

2. Howie Kendrick - Los Angeles Angels - For the past two years, this guy has popped up on sleeper lists everywhere. But, he can't seem to stay healthy. Then, when he is, he's just not panning out to be the next great thing. Factoring his past two seasons' stats into a full 162 game season (P-SHAW!) only comes out with 70/7/53/7/.324 That's not really what I would consider the #9 overall ranked second baseman.

3. Ian Kinsler - Texas Rangers - This second base Sleepers & Busters is tough. Either the players are good, you know they're good, and they'll continue to be good, or they suck, you know they suck, and you'd never draft them anyway. So, I'm going out on a limb to say that Ian Kinsler can't do in 2008 what he did in 2007 to warrant the ranking of 6th best second baseman. What's my basis? Man, have you checked out the Rangers' lineup? Man, it turns out that Robin Ventura was the cousin of God, and here's Nolan Ryan's karmic payback... Good luck with all that.

Labels: Aaron Hill, Brandon Phillips, busters, fantasy baseball, Howie Kendrick, Ian Kinsler, Jayson Nix, second basemen, sleepers, Yunel Escobar

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Now, onward and upward to the powerhouses of fantasy baseball: the first basemen. Historically, when you're looking at an all out slugger, you're looking at a first baseman. Yes, there's sluggers at all the other positions, but at no other position are there ONLY sluggers. So, take that semantics stickler.

In this article, I will go through and call out three bargain bin goodies and three things painted in lead paint with small parts that will almost certainly choke your children and small pets. With no further ado, let's hit the books, shall we?

Sleepers:

1. James Loney - Los Angeles Dodgers - Now, this guy isn't a rookie, he's been around for a couple of seasons. On top of that, the two seasons he's been around for he hasn't done anything superhuman. However, each season his per AB numbers are improving. So much so, that if he plays 162 games this season(he's played 48 & 95 in the two previous seasons), we have him projected out to hit around .310 with 21 HRs and 96 RBI. Those would be some nice numbers from the #15 ranked 1st Baseman.

2. Joey Votto - Cincinnati Reds - The only reason Votto isn't #1 on this list is that he only has 24 major league games under his belt. But, when we factored out his percentages over those 24 games into a 162 game season, the numbers were hot lava. Obviously, you can't expect a guy to hit the same over 6 months that he hit in a month and a half, but just for grins, here's his projected 162 game season projected numbers: 77/28/120/7/.321 Zoinks is right, Shaggy.

3. Daric Barton - Oakland A's - This guy burst on the scene like Prince Fielder at a pancake buffet last year. The guy had 72 ABs in 18 games, and went like this: 16/4/8/1/.347 Now, let's be reasonable. Those numbers projected out over 162 games would give you an unwarranted erection. I won't even show them to you, because they're worthless. No way a Billy Beane slugger gets 144 runs in a season, especially one who's currently riding the pine behind Dan Johnson. But, he's a DEFINITE free agent to watch early on.

Busters:

1. Carlos Pena - Tampa Bay DEVIL Rays - Okay, so let me get this straight, ONE above average season in 7 seasons warrants you to be the #9 overall 1st baseman in the fantasy world? Yeah, he was great for people who hopped on for the ride last season, but if you take last season's 46 HRs out of the picture, he suddenly averages less than 9 HRs a season. Something tells me that people need to pull off their near-sighted spectacles and start looking at things historically.

2. Carlos Guillen - Detroit Tigers - OOO! A first baseman who can hit 18 HRs and steal 18 bases a season! That's like getting excited over a Kia Sephia that also makes applesauce. Who gives a rat's ass? Neither of those stats is anything to write home about in the long run. Plus, face facts, he's a shortstop who now qualifies for first base. Who gets excited about shortstops, other than David Ortiz sharing sweaty man hugs with Miguel Tejada at the Home Run Derby.

3. Todd Helton - Colorado Rockies - Sorry, my oxygen deprived Rockies fans, the Todd Helton you knew is gone. He should still be on your draft board, but that ship is sinking faster than Wesley Snipes' career. Seriously, Wesley...hocking Bowflexes (or whatever body building gadget Chuck Norris and Christie Brinkley also endorse)? I thought Blade was the biggest hunk of cheese you could squeeze from your butt...

Labels: busters, Carlos Guillen, Carlos Pena, Daric Barton, fantasy baseball, first basemen, James Loney, Joey Votto, sleepers, Todd Helton

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Alright folks, dust the Cheeto crumbs off of your keyboards, it's time for fantasy baseball again. Whether you play rotisserie, head-to-head, or points, there's one position that will always be like the tonsils of your team. You don't need them, they don't really seem to do anything, but if you don't have them, you're prone to get sick more often. This bitch of a position is the catcher. They're arguably the most important player on the field in real baseball, but in fantasy, most of them do nothing but get you 30-40 runs and RBIs, 7-10 HRs, and 0 stolen bases.

Of course, there are anomalies like Victor Martinez. But, those guys are few and far between. Like the tight end in fantasy baseball, life would be so much easier if you didn't even have to bother with them. But, the catcher is a necessity in fantasy baseball. So, let's go through and show you some of the most overrated and most underrated of the lamest position in fantasy baseball.

Sleepers:

1. J.R. Towles - Houston Astros - You may or may not have heard of this guy yet. But, trust me, by the end of the season, he will be a household name amongst fantasy baseball managers. The 2008 version of Russell Martin, Towles can hit and run with as much dominance as could be expected from a catcher. In the minors over the last 4 years, J.R. (or Justin Towles) produced 28 HRs and 42 SBs in 907 ABs. That's roughly 14 HRs and 21 SBs per a catcher's full MLB season with a career .300 minor league batting average to boot. Right now, Towles has an average fantasy ranking of 19.3 amongst catchers. Much of that may have something to do with Brad Ausmus, the 39-year old road block crouching in his way. He may not start the season as the starter, but he'll finish the season making the rest of your league managers wonder why they jumped on Jason Kendall so quickly.

2. Jarrod Saltalamacchia - Texas Rangers - I know Salty isn't MUCH of a sleeper with a 12.1 average fantasy ranking, but he'll be much higher than that by season's end. I personally have seen Salty back when he played for the AA Mississippi Braves, and he's solid. He hit 46 dingers in 1346 ABs in the minors, which works out to be around 15-16 in a full MLB catcher's season. He's as clutch as they come, knocking in 204 RBIs during that same time (an equivalent of about 70 per season in the MLB). Not only that, when he's not catching he will fill in at first base. Since one of the other major downfalls for catchers is their average of 100-120 games played per season, when a catcher also fills in at another spot you'd better jump on that bandwagon.

3. Michael Barrett - San Diego Padres - Yeah, I said it. I am, and have been for a long time, one of Barrett's biggest fans. Nothing stung worse than seeing him be ridden out of town on a rail by my beloved Cubs last season. That being said, the number one reason I heart Michael Barrett is his passion for the game. I love that he makes mistakes, not due to inability, but due to the fact that he gets so pumped that he just flips his lid. So, do you think Michael Barrett, a once very respectible fantasy catcher, will slink into a corner and twiddle his thumbs after last season's debacle? Of course not! Not MY Michael Barrett! I don't expect Victor Martinez numbers out of him, but the good old days of 50-15-50 and .280 don't seem like a stretch on February 8th to me.

Busters:

1. Joe Mauer - Minnesota Twins - Yes, we all love him for his batting title in 2006. We also very much love his sideburns. But, Joe, what have you done for me lately in fantasy baseball, buddy? Not much! Yeah, a .300 BA is good, but not when you're only playing 100-110 games a season! After that, he's getting 7-10 HRs and 7-10 SBs. You know who's got similar numbers to Handsome Joe? Mark DeRosa. Yeah! Mark DeRosa! 74-10-72-.324 & 71-12-73-.295 Which of the previous two seasons' averaged stats belong to which player? Okay, the .324 gives it away, but you take that batting crown out and you've got a .300 career hitter. I'm not saying he's not good, I just don't think he's worth the average fantasy ranking of 3.1 among catchers. He won't live up to your expectations this season.

2. Jason Kendall - Milwaukee Brewers - Why is Kendall even still being ranked at all? Much less owning as high of a ranking of 19 and 20 among ALL catchers! (Two reputable publications ranked him that high, his average ranking is 29.4) I guess if 0-3 HRs plus 40-50 runs and RBIs is good business to you, then more power to you. Maybe you're holding out for another monster 11 SBs out of him, I don't know. But, come on! If you see someone draft Kendall don't hold back the laughter, they need to hear it or else they'll never learn.

3. Ramon Hernandez - Baltimore Orioles - His sudden surge in the long ball category in 2003 with Oakland and now his sudden inability to play full seasons over the following 5 years screams Larussa turning yet another blind, drunken eye to a sharp stick in the ass cheek. With power numbers on the sharp decline since steroids have had their cover blown completely off a year or two ago, I don't think we'll ever see our average fantasy ranked 11.5 Ramon Hernandez return to the form many cling to like the hopes that Brad and Jen will get back together.

So, there you have it. Since you've got to have a catcher, you might as well go into the whole procedure informed. A couple other tips on catchers. Don't keep more than one on your roster, please. It doesn't make sense, it's like keeping Pokey Reese on your bench just in case Craig Counsell goes down. After Victor Martinez, Russell Martin, and Brian McCann get drafted just wait it out until you have the rest of your starters taken. Catchers work the same way in the draft that tight ends do in fantasy football, once the big three are taken, there's a rush as everyone's afraid they'll get stuck with nothing. Then you end up drafting Mike Napoli in the 4th or 5th round and you feel dirty like you just made sweet love to your cousin the next morning.

Check back in later when we uncover the Sleepers & Busters in the world of first basemen...

Labels: busters, catchers, fantasy baseball, J.R. Towles, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jason Kendall, Joe Mauer, Michael Barrett, Ramon Hernandez, sleepers

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Okay, last season of all of my ballyhooing and jabbering, I pulled out a 50% accurate, 18% push, and 32% dead wrong record. Pretty good, considering the subject matter. However, where I failed you all was in the Sleepers & Busters article last season, where I pulled a LenDale White sized belly flop picking only 4 of 10 correctly. Nasty.

Well, here I go again. This time I can feel it in my marrow, we're on the right path and if you stand firm behind me, we're going to take this one all the way to Chinatown! You ready? Me too, let do this...

Quarterbacks

Sleeper: Philip Rivers, QB - San Diego Chargers (Avg. Rank: 12.45, Hi: 6, Lo: 17)

With an average ranking of 12.45 and ranked as low as #17 (We were the one's who ranked him #6.) in our quest for player rankings, Philip Rivers is getting treated like the fantasy football equivalent of Pabst Blue Ribbon. In a draft pool of Heinekins, Sam Adams, and Red Stripes sometimes people forget that Pabst is also a tasty cheaper alternative. His 2006 Passer Rating was #6 of all QBs playing in more than 12 games last season. He threw 22 TDs last season (#8 overall) and only 9 picks (#3 among players with 12 or more games). He's got the 2nd best offensive line in football, one of the best receiving running backs in the league, THE best receiving tight end, and a bright young receiver corps. So, dig down in the ice and grab that Pabst later on when your buddies are smug about grabbing temporarily crutchless Donovan McNabb and enjoy the smooth cold flavor.

Buster: Vince Young, QB - Tennessee Titans (Avg. Rank: 8.64, Hi: 7, Lo: 12)

It's a hard lesson to learn, I know. But, take a moment to soak this in: "Running quarterbacks are not as good as advertised." Print that. Yeah, I know, rushing points come every 10-20 yards, while passing points come every 25-50 yards. So, if you have a QB who will rush for between 500-900 yards, hell yeah, right? Wrong. Okay, so he runs. But, where's he going? Most of the time not the end zone. Most QB rushes are midfield scrambles. Running backs are trained to run, quarterbacks are not. A chef that can mix drinks isn't better than a chef who can't because the one who can make drinks is going to do a half-ass job at both because he's busying himself trying to be the whole kitchen. Case in point, Vince Young had a 51.54% completion percentage last season and a 66.7 passer rating. Awful. Okay, so his drink mixing skills were pretty good with a 6.7 Yard Per Rush average, but the cooking at Cafe Vince sucks. And besides, who's he going to throw to? When Brandon Jones is your #1 receiver, you'd better run Vinny. Don't waste your pick.

Bold Statement: Alex Smith will be a Top 10 QB by season's end.

Running Backs

Sleeper: Jerrious Norwood, RB - Atlanta Falcons (Avg. Rank: 37.36. Hi: 31, Lo: 44)

I toiled and toiled over this pick because I had two other guys who would fit neatly into the slot (Brandon Jacobs (Avg. Rank: 24.36) and Marion Barber (Avg. Rank: 24.36)). Any of those 3 are prime sleeper material, as I believe they will all blow up in a major way. As a matter of fact for the past few months, Brandon Jacobs has been in my mind as my pick this year, but seeing Norwood ranked so low and seeing Jacobs at least getting SOME respect skewed my choice at the last minute. Norwood led all running backs with a 6.4 Yards Per Rush average and produced a healthy 8.5 Yards Per Reception average. He's got a great offensive line and a guy in front of him who should step aside at any moment. His only downfall is that Michael Vick doesn't particularly like to let anyone else touch the ball. But, if Vick finds himself bludgeoned with carrots by PETA, I'm sure Joey Harrington wouldn't mind letting ANYone else take the ball from him. I'm not saying he's first half draft material, but in those later rounds when you're drunkenly thinking about taking Wali Lundy or Kevan Barlow, you'd be better off with Norwood.

Buster: Travis Henry, RB - Denver Broncos (Avg. Rank: 13.09, Hi: 8, Lo: 20)

Guys...seriously. We need to talk. There's people out there who think Travis Henry is a Top 10 running back. People in positions to advise. This, my friends, is called lunacy. Yeah, okay, he was pretty good in 2002 and 2003 with Buffalo. Gotcha. But this is 5 years later! He's done nothing but suck up until last season when he became just barely above average. Now people see him in Denver and think he's the 13th best RB ahead of names like Clinton Portis and Edgerrin James? I know Portis and James weren't great last season, but come on! It's possible to not be good under Mike Shannahan. Tatum Bell did it last season. Don't fall for the hype, please. You'll be sorry.

Bold Statement: Larry Johnson, not LaDanian Tomlinson, not Steven Jackson, will be the biggest point scorer in fantasy football this season.

Wide Receivers

Sleeper: Drew Bennett, WR - St. Louis Rams (Avg. Rank: 46.91, Hi: 34, Lo: 63)

This was a tough one as well, because as I dug through the ranks, I kept looking shallow. Randy Moss, Terry Glenn, Andre Johnson (again). Too safe. Dig deeper, David! So, I did...and this is who I found. Last season, Bennett muddled through a long season of Tennessee's inadequacy, a rookie QB with a penchant for running, and a lackluster running game leading to defenses keying in on the WRs (I just noticed I could have easily called this article "Wail On The Titans"). Bennett finds himself in an environment where yards and TDs abound. Since Marc Bulger took over in the middle of 2002, the Rams have had at least 2 (TWO!) players with at least 800 yards receiving (2002: 1302 & 1075, 2003: 1696 & 981, 2004: 1372 & 1292, 2005: 1331 & 801, 2006: 1188, 1098, & 806). Normaly those two players are named Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce, but Isaac Bruce is 35 years old. While Bruce is still slotted as the #2 WR, he's due for a dramatic decrease in looks with a player of Bennett's calibur now in the mix. Rated as he is, you should see him fall to some lower rounds. Don't be afraid to pull the trigger and grab him, he will be a large producer for what he is this season.

Buster: Larry Fitzgerald, WR - Arizona Cardinals (Avg. Rank: 7.27, Hi: 6, Lo: 9)

Now, I'm not saying that Larry Fitzgerald is a bad pick or a bad player. What I'm saying is that he's ranked way too high for the numbers he produces. He averages only 13.6 Yards Per Reception (2006: 13.7 was 48th overall against players with at least 12 games in 2006) and 8 TDs a season (2006: 6 was 7th overall against all WRs). With two other very good WRs in the mix, a RB that gets a decent amount of receptions, and a young QB with a subpar O-Line, I'm not saying he won't warrant a fairly high pick, he just stands a very good chance of disappointing this season.

Bold Statement: Marques Colston will hit the sophomore slump this season.

Tight Ends

Sleeper: Ben Watson, TE - New England Patriots (Avg. Rank: 9.36, Hi: 7, Lo: 13)

Dueling TEs sucks almost as bad as dueling RBs for a fantasy footballer. Almost as bad because TEs suck anyway, but they're a necessary evil. If you split their receptions in half, then it just gets nasty. Fortunately for Dr. Watson, his counterpart, Daniel Graham, jumped ship for Denver in the off season. This leaves Kyle Brady as his main competition, and Kyle Brady is a blocker, not a receiver. Now, with Moss, Stallworth, and Welker new on the scene in New England, this won't leave a WHOLE lot of receptions for Watson. But, he was already a very good tight end option and he just got better.

Buster: Jeremy Shockey, TE - New York Giants (Avg. Rank: 4.73, Hi: 3, Lo: 12)

With the 17th best Yard Per Reception average (11.4) over the past 3 seasons and 30th best in 2006 (9.4), Shockey's only saving grace is when he's near the end zone. Yes, he does have the 2nd best 3 Year Average in TD Receptions (6.7 per season), but TDs aren't everything. Once again, as with Larry Fitzgerald, I'm not saying stay away, I'm just saying the product you're purchasing isn't as good as advertised.

Bold Statement: Alge Crumpler will barely be a Top 10 TE by season's end.

Kickers

Sleeper: Rian Lindell, K - Buffalo Bills (Avg. Rank: 18.33, Hi: 16, Lo: 21)

There's two main things to look at when you look at a kicker: 1)Accuracy 2)The strength of his team's offense. Clearly, you want an accurate kicker. I don't even have to tell you that, but I did anyway. But, almost as importantly, you want a kicker with a team offense that's good enough to get in field goal range, but bad enough to flop when they get there. Lindell's got both. Over the past 3 seasons, Lindell's FGs Made %s are as follows: 85.7%, 82.9%, and 92.0% averaging out to 86.9%. There's only two regular kickers with higher accuracy percentages (Stover and Vinatieri). Plus, with J.P. Losman heading the offense, the 2nd worst offensive line, and an unproven (albeit highly touted) rookie as their starting running back, you have a mix that should get him close to his range. Oh, and did you know that Lindell's 50+ Yard FG Made % is 100% over the past 3 years? Yep, 5 for 5. You know who else has done that that's on the list right now? No one.

Buster: Robbie Gould, K - Chicago Bears (Avg. Rank: 4.11, Hi: 1, Lo: 7)

What did we learn last season about kickers who weren't very good one season and were very good the next? They tend to come back to earth. Right, Neil Rackers? In 2005, Robbie Gould hit only 77.8% of all FGs, then in 2006 he hit 88.9%. He's only played two seasons, how can I judge? Look at his stats, after a super hot start that inevitably earned him the ranking he currently owns, he hit the wall in Week 9. He averaged 11.8 points per game through the first 8 weeks, then, starting at Week 9, 6.7. After hitting 100% through the first 11 weeks, he only hit 67% after that. Plus, on top of all of that, his career longest FG is only 49 yards. He hasn't even attempted a 50+ yet.

Bold Statement: Mike Vanderjagt will return to the NFL this season and become a Top 10 kicker again.

Defenses

Sleeper: Green Bay Packers DST (Avg. Rank: 12.00. Hi: 4, Lo: 16)

Apparently not a lot of people noticed that the Packers turned in one of the finest statistical defensive displays of the season last year coming in 4th in sacks (46), 3rd in INTs (23), and 2nd in DEF TDs (5). Maybe that was because they also ranked 25th in Points Allowed (354) and the team just really sucked all season. But, the fact is that despite the Packers being Favre's team, they have generally been a solid defense year in and year out. This year should be any different. A.J. Hawk has aged a season and should excel, Charles Woodsen is always nasty, and Aaron Kampman (2nd most sacks in the NFL with 15.5) is back in full effect.

Buster: Miami Dolphins DST (Avg. Rank: 6.70, Hi: 5, Lo: 9)

Okay, yes they signed Joey Porter. The Dolphins will be one of the hardest teams in the league to run against between Porter, Zach Thomas, Jayson Taylor, and Keith Traylor. No question. But, last season they had 8 (EIGHT!) INTs, ranking them #31 overall and they did next to nothing to address that fact in the off season. While the rest of the stats are up to snuff, this glaring mistake tells me that they are leaving themselves open to a whole lot of airborne atatcks this season, which will leave Dolphins DST owners a little disappointed. That's why I cycle defenses like a madman, but that's another article.

Bold Statement: The San Diego Chargers will become the #1 defense this season.

Just thought you should know.

Labels: busts, fantasy draft, fantasy football, nfl, predictions, projections, sleepers

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There’s a fine line between respect and rejection in the world of Fantasy Football. Sometimes those can’t miss players not only miss, they bring you down with them. Ahman Green, anyone? Sometimes a final round throw away pick makes you the talk of the league, Willie Parker style. Here’s a look into how to avoid the rest of the league laughing as you sheepishly drop your #1 overall pick onto the waiver wire in Week 5.

Quarterbacks:

Sleeper – Jake Plummer – DEN – Anyone remember Jon Kitna’s 2003 and 2004 seasons? What about Drew Brees circa 2004 and 2005? What’s the similarity here? Right, they were both mediocre to lousy QBs who, when faced with their team spending a Top 5 Draft Pick on their replacement, decided to step it up a few hundred notches. Guess what happened to Jake Plummer this season? The Broncos drafted lauded rookie Jay Cutler to learn the system. Plummer is due a new contract at the end of the season with SOMEone, and he might like to prove to them that he’s worth the money. All signs point to a big season from the most underrated QB in the NFL.

Buster – Marc Bulger – STL – You know I should say Aaron Brooks, but you would’ve had to, at one point, actually been good to be considered a bust. Why Marc Bulger? Well, with injuries piling up like chicken buckets outside of John Madden’s bus, Marc Bulger has at least a 4:1 shot of not missing a game or two, but I’d play the numbers and bet that he misses more than that. Plus, with an aging receiver corps and a decimated offensive line, what exactly makes you think he’s worth a high draft pick? Don’t do it.

Running Backs:

Sleeper – Lee Suggs – NYJ – This spot could have been held by Chester Taylor or Joseph Addai, but I think most of you know that Chester Taylor will do very well in Minnesota, and Jospeh Addai still isn’t the starter yet. So, I pick Lee Suggs because he probably wasn’t even on anyone’s radar until a couple of days ago when he was brought to New York. Lee Suggs should take over for ailing Curtis Martin when he is forced into retirement by injuries before the preseason is over. Let’s not forget that he only had 8 rushes last season, but let’s also not forget that he averaged 4.5 yards per carry the previous two seasons when he got 56 and 199 carries respectively. He’s young, he has the talent, and now he’s all but got a starting job with a decent team. I’m not saying Suggs is 1st Round material, but if he was there in the 5th Round, you’d better believe I’d take him. ***EDIT*** Ha ha! The RotoDestroyer Jinx! Only moments after posting this article, Lee Suggs failed his physical and voided the trade to New York. So, let's not call him a sleeper anymore, but there's still Chester Taylor and Joseph Addai to look at.

Buster – Edgerrin James – ARI – Everything is wrong for Edge this season. Now, I love Edgerrin. He’s a great player. But, let’s look at what happened. He went from the best offense in the NFL to one of the flakiest. He went from one of the best offensive lines to one of the three worst. His present offense is led by two of the best wide receivers in the league. Gonna be real hard to spread the ball around between Anquan, Fitzy, and Edge. His quarterback will either be an old man teetering on the brink of wasting away or an unproven Paris Hilton boy toy rookie. Plus, PLUS, he’s got his contract now, so there's no reason to go overboard. My prediction for Edge this season is he starts off slow, picks up steam toward midseason, then is injured when one of his doofus linemen let a linebacker through and he doesn’t play again this season as the Cardinals once again miss the playoffs.

Wide Receivers:

Sleeper – Andre Johnson – TEX – There’s several names who could go here: Michael Clayton, Javon Walker, even Chris Chambers. Michael Clayton is not as bad as he was last season. Javon Walker will be back with a vengeance under Shannahan’s rule. Chris Chambers is a sleeper in that, I think he will pull a Steve Smith and suddenly become a Top 3 receiver overnight. But, I still pick Andre Johnson because he was so good for two seasons, and when he crapped the bed last season I see now that he’s been written off down the line, ranked as low as #33. That’s crazy. The man’s a stud and with Eric Moulds coming to town for mentorship and to take the defensive pressure off of him, that adds up to sleeper material of the best kind.

Buster – Joey Galloway – TB – People still have this guy ranked as high as #11. Uh, guys, he’s 35 years old. That’s just a year younger than Brett Favre. Yeah, he was great last season, surprisingly so. But, honestly…#11? That’s just crazy. Let him go. Chris Simms is still finding his niche, and he’s surrounded by other younger talented receivers. When it comes your turn and you see Galloway staring you in the face, turn and run. There is no way he can live up to the hype.

Tight Ends:

Sleeper – Zach Hilton – NO – Now a sleeper at the tight end position is still just a tight end, so don’t get TOO excited and do something crazy. That being said, do you guys remember late last season after the Saints bye week when Zach Hilton started racking up pretty impressive games? Don’t worry, a LOT of people didn’t notice. But, I did. Do you guys remember who Brees’ last tight end was? Some guy named Gates. They had pretty good chemistry, that Gates fellas made a decent name for himself being thrown to by Brees. Hilton’s got the potential, he’s got the quarterback…but he IS still a Saint, and that means all guarantees are null and void. But, if I followed my strategy and still don’t have a TE in the 12th or 13th Round, I’d be more than happy to draft Zach Hilton. I expect big things out of him this season, although big things for a tight end is like owning the World’s Largest Weiner Dog.

Buster – Tony Gonzalez – KC – It pains me to put his name up here, but pickings are slim when you don’t expect much from the position as a whole. Why did I pick on Gonzo? Well, a few reasons. He’s been on a downward slide for the past three seasons, dropping about half a yard per reception each season. Trent Green is no spring chicken either, so there’s that. I’m not saying avoid Gonzo, I’m not saying he’s not worth having on your team. I’m just saying, you may think twice about drafting him as early as you did last season or the year before, because I just don’t see him producing like the Gonzo of old.

Kickers:

Sleeper – Mike Vanderjagt – DAL – Isn’t THAT a shame when the most accurate kicker in the history of the NFL is now a sleeper instead of just a sure thing. For one reason or another, he dropped a long way on a lot of people’s lists, falling as far as #7. That’s just crazy. Crazy? That’s just criminal. Look at the facts, he’s still the most accurate kicker in the league, he’s playing under a partial dome for half of his games, which means cross winds will be minimal to none. He’s playing for one of those offenses you love to see for a kicker, where they’re solid, but not quite good enough to score on every possession. They’ll drive down the field, but they’ll be putting away a lot of field goals when Julius Jones can’t break through the hole, or a lumbering Bledsoe hits the deck just shy of the yellow line.

Buster – Neil Rackers – ARI – Huh? Where did this guy pop into the #1 slot from? He’s ranked #1 all over town. Let’s look at his FG Accuracy over the past three seasons: 75.0%, 75.9%, 95.2%. OH, I get it now. The old Fluke Year Syndrome. People see on unstoppable season where he nails 40 of 42 and suddenly the proven studs take a back seat to Johnny Come Lately. Hell, Billy Cundiff out kicked Rackers in 2003 and 2004. In fact he was only better than 7 kickers in 2003, and only 5 in 2004. Now, I’m not saying that we should really even be worrying about kickers this much, because they’re really all the same. But, I am saying that Neil Rackers doesn’t belong in the #1 spot, and honestly he probably doesn’t even belong in the Top 5. So, don’t waste your pick on a fluke, just laugh into your beer when some moron drafts him in the 8th Round.

Labels: busts, fantasy draft, fantasy football, nfl, sleepers

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